The Distributional Effects of Value-Added Taxes in OECD Countries

<p>Most OECD countries’ value-added tax (VAT) systems apply reduced VAT rates to a selection of expenditure items in order to achieve distributional goals, and – to a lesser extent – social, cultural and employment-related goals. This thesis investigates the distributional effects of the VAT in OECD countries, and the merits of using reduced VAT rates to achieve distributional goals. The research adopts a microsimulation modelling approach that draws on household expenditure microdata from household budget surveys for an unprecedented 27 OECD countries. A consistent microsimulation methodology is adopted to ensure cross-country comparability of results. Non-behavioural VAT microsimulation models are first built to examine the overall distributional impact of the current VAT systems in each country. The research assesses the competing methodological approaches used in previous studies, highlighting the misleading effect of savings patterns on cross-sectional analysis when VAT burdens are measured relative to income. Measuring VAT burdens relative to expenditure – thereby removing the influence of savings – is found to provide a more reliable picture of the distributional impact of the VAT. On this basis, the VAT is found to be either roughly proportional or slightly progressive in most of the 27 OECD countries examined. Nevertheless, results for a small number of countries (Chile, Hungary, Latvia and New Zealand) highlight that broad-based VAT systems that have few reduced VAT rates or exemptions can produce a small degree of regressivity. Results also show that even a roughly proportional VAT can still have significant equity implications for the poor – potentially pushing some households into poverty. Behavioural VAT microsimulation models are then built for 23 OECD countries to investigate whether reduced VAT rates are an effective way to support poorer households, and whether the use of targeted cash transfers would be more effective. The behavioural microsimulation methodology follows the Linear Expenditure System based approach of Creedy and Sleeman (2006). Complementing this approach, a Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS) is estimated specifically for New Zealand, thereby providing the first estimates of a QUAIDS model based on New Zealand data. Simulation results show that, as a whole, the reduced VAT rates present in most OECD countries tend to have a small progressive impact. However, despite this progressivity, reduced VAT rates are shown to be a highly ineffective mechanism for targeting support to poorer households: not only do rich households benefit from reduced rates, but they benefit more in aggregate terms than poor households do. When looking at reduced VAT rates applied to specific products, results are found to vary considerably. Reduced VAT rates specifically introduced to support the poor (such as reduced rates on food consumed at home and domestic utilities) are generally found to have a progressive impact, though rich households still receive a larger aggregate benefit than poor households. In contrast, reduced VAT rates introduced to address non-distributional goals (such as reduced rates on restaurants, hotels, and cultural and social expenditure) often have a regressive impact. Additional simulation results show that an income-tested cash transfer will better target support to poorer households than reduced VAT rates in all countries. Furthermore, even a universal cash transfer is found to better target poorer households than reduced VAT rates. However, results also show that it is very difficult for an income-tested cash transfer to fully compensate all poor households for the removal of reduced VAT rates. This is due to the significant variation in the underlying consumption patterns across households. While a small number of poor households lose out from replacing reduced VAT rates with targeted cash transfers, those that receive support are instead determined by income and family characteristics as opposed to consumption tastes – thereby increasing horizontal equity. Furthermore, many households are lifted out of poverty as revenue previously transferred to richer households is now transferred to poorer households. These results empirically confirm the theoretical expectation that, where available, direct mechanisms (whether via the income tax or benefit system) will better achieve distributional goals than reduced VAT rates. Countries that currently employ reduced VAT rates to achieve distributional goals should therefore consider removing these reduced rates and adjusting their income tax or benefit systems to achieve these distributional goals instead. Countries should also consider removing reduced VAT rates aimed at non-distributional goals where a more effective instrument is available to achieve the particular policy goal. At a minimum, the merits of these reduced VAT rates should be reassessed in light of their negative distributional impact.</p>

The Distributional Effects of Value-Added Taxes in OECD Countries

<p>Most OECD countries’ value-added tax (VAT) systems apply reduced VAT rates to a selection of expenditure items in order to achieve distributional goals, and – to a lesser extent – social, cultural and employment-related goals. This thesis investigates the distributional effects of the VAT in OECD countries, and the merits of using reduced VAT rates to achieve distributional goals. The research adopts a microsimulation modelling approach that draws on household expenditure microdata from household budget surveys for an unprecedented 27 OECD countries. A consistent microsimulation methodology is adopted to ensure cross-country comparability of results. Non-behavioural VAT microsimulation models are first built to examine the overall distributional impact of the current VAT systems in each country. The research assesses the competing methodological approaches used in previous studies, highlighting the misleading effect of savings patterns on cross-sectional analysis when VAT burdens are measured relative to income. Measuring VAT burdens relative to expenditure – thereby removing the influence of savings – is found to provide a more reliable picture of the distributional impact of the VAT. On this basis, the VAT is found to be either roughly proportional or slightly progressive in most of the 27 OECD countries examined. Nevertheless, results for a small number of countries (Chile, Hungary, Latvia and New Zealand) highlight that broad-based VAT systems that have few reduced VAT rates or exemptions can produce a small degree of regressivity. Results also show that even a roughly proportional VAT can still have significant equity implications for the poor – potentially pushing some households into poverty. Behavioural VAT microsimulation models are then built for 23 OECD countries to investigate whether reduced VAT rates are an effective way to support poorer households, and whether the use of targeted cash transfers would be more effective. The behavioural microsimulation methodology follows the Linear Expenditure System based approach of Creedy and Sleeman (2006). Complementing this approach, a Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS) is estimated specifically for New Zealand, thereby providing the first estimates of a QUAIDS model based on New Zealand data. Simulation results show that, as a whole, the reduced VAT rates present in most OECD countries tend to have a small progressive impact. However, despite this progressivity, reduced VAT rates are shown to be a highly ineffective mechanism for targeting support to poorer households: not only do rich households benefit from reduced rates, but they benefit more in aggregate terms than poor households do. When looking at reduced VAT rates applied to specific products, results are found to vary considerably. Reduced VAT rates specifically introduced to support the poor (such as reduced rates on food consumed at home and domestic utilities) are generally found to have a progressive impact, though rich households still receive a larger aggregate benefit than poor households. In contrast, reduced VAT rates introduced to address non-distributional goals (such as reduced rates on restaurants, hotels, and cultural and social expenditure) often have a regressive impact. Additional simulation results show that an income-tested cash transfer will better target support to poorer households than reduced VAT rates in all countries. Furthermore, even a universal cash transfer is found to better target poorer households than reduced VAT rates. However, results also show that it is very difficult for an income-tested cash transfer to fully compensate all poor households for the removal of reduced VAT rates. This is due to the significant variation in the underlying consumption patterns across households. While a small number of poor households lose out from replacing reduced VAT rates with targeted cash transfers, those that receive support are instead determined by income and family characteristics as opposed to consumption tastes – thereby increasing horizontal equity. Furthermore, many households are lifted out of poverty as revenue previously transferred to richer households is now transferred to poorer households. These results empirically confirm the theoretical expectation that, where available, direct mechanisms (whether via the income tax or benefit system) will better achieve distributional goals than reduced VAT rates. Countries that currently employ reduced VAT rates to achieve distributional goals should therefore consider removing these reduced rates and adjusting their income tax or benefit systems to achieve these distributional goals instead. Countries should also consider removing reduced VAT rates aimed at non-distributional goals where a more effective instrument is available to achieve the particular policy goal. At a minimum, the merits of these reduced VAT rates should be reassessed in light of their negative distributional impact.</p>

Public and Private Social Welfare

This chapter contributes to the discussion of public and private social welfare by drawing together recent information on these different ways of providing social benefits. It presents data on public social expenditure for 2015–17 and accounts for the impact of the tax system and private social expenditure to develop indicators on net social expenditure for 2015. The chapter shows that conventional estimates of gross public spending differ significantly from estimates of net public spending and net total social expenditure, leading to an incorrect measurement and ranking of total social welfare effort across countries.Just as importantly, the fact that total social welfare support is incorrectly measured implies that the outcomes of welfare state support may also be incorrectly measured. Thus, the main objectives of the chapter include considering the implications of this more comprehensive definition of welfare state effort for analysis of the distributional impact of the welfare state and for an assessment of the efficiency and incentive effects of different welfare state arrangements.

Environmental Taxation

The environment as a policy issue has increased dramatically in importance in recent decades. The issues extend from global challenges, such as climate change, access to water and soils, ozone emissions, and biodiversity loss, to issues with a smaller geographical scope, such as water quality and congestion, to the impact of the environment on health. Environmental policy measures, including environmental regulations, taxes, and emission trading schemes, have been proposed to reduce pollution. This chapter focuses on environmental taxes, as they are most amenable to simulation using a microsimulation model, requiring both the behavioural response to the policy to be measured and the distributional impact. In particular, the focus is on the modelling and design of Pigouvian taxes that aim to reduce environmental pollution such as a carbon tax. The chapter presents methodological issues in terms of modelling pollution. It also describes how to use an input-output model to simulate the direct and indirect impact of environmental taxation. The chapter then undertakes an example analysis assessing the welfare impact of a carbon tax.

From Each According to Means, to Each According to Needs? Distributional Effects of Abolishing Asset-Based Payments for Residential Care in Austria

BackgroundMost countries in Europe require out-of-pocket payments (OPPs) for nursing homes based on users’ income and often assets. This was also the case in Austria until 2018 when asset-based contributions to residential care —denoted the ‘Pflegeregress’ – were abolished, leaving a shortfall in revenue. We aim to determine how the Pflegeregress was distributed across different groups in Austria prior to 2018, what the distributional consequences of its abolishment were, and what the distributional impact of different financing alternatives would be.MethodsCircumventing data availability issues, we construct a micro-simulation model using a matched administrative dataset on residential care users receiving the Austrian care allowance (Pflegegeldinformation, PFIF, HVB, and Pflegedienstleistungsstatistik, Statistik Austria) and survey data (SHARE, wave 6). Using this model, we estimate the expected duration of residential care and OPPs under the Pflegeregress of a representative sample of older people aged 65+ in Austria, as well as OPPs under budgetary neutral financing alternatives to the abolished asset-based contribution, namely an inheritance tax and a social insurance scheme. The distributional impact of abolishing the Pflegeregress and these alternative scenarios is assessed through a number of measures, such as ability to pay, Concentration Indices (CI) and a needs-standardized measure.ResultsWe find that lower income individuals and homeowners disproportionately contributed to asset-based OPPs for residential care prior to 2018 due in large part to their higher use of residential care and the low asset-exemption thresholds. These groups were therefore the largest beneficiaries of its abolishment. The alternative financing scenarios tested would result in a more progressive distribution of payments (i.e. concentrated on more affluent individuals). ConclusionOur findings indicate the limited ability of asset-based OPPs to target those with higher assets, thus questioning the fairness of these instruments for financing residential care facilities for older people in Austria. Findings also suggest that the parameterization of such OPPs (such as asset exemption thresholds) and patterns of residential care use are key variables for assessing the distribution of asset-based OPPs for residential care use. Policy alternatives that decouple payments from use would entail greater transfers from healthy to less healthier individuals.