Ecological Livability Assessment of Urban Agglomerations in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

This paper proposes the “citizen-ecology-city” evaluation framework for urban ecological livability theoretically and studies the ecological livability of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) empirically. In addition, we analyze the factors of urban ecological livability in a spatial dynamic panel model. The results are as follows. (1) Ecological livability levels of Macao and Hong Kong are significantly higher than the nine cities in the PRD; (2) Shenzhen and Guangzhou lead the nine cities in the PRD, while Jiangmen and Zhaoqing perform poorly; (3) GBA cities can be divided into three categories: Macao, Hong Kong, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou in the first tier; Zhuhai, Foshan, and Dongguan in the second tier; Huizhou, Zhongshan, Jiangmen, and Zhaoqing in the third tier; and (4) The ecological livability of the GBA cities has a characteristic of spatial correlation. In terms of the international value, the three-dimensional evaluation framework can apply to other bay areas in the world.

Instrumental Variable Quantile Regression of Spatial Dynamic Durbin Panel Data Model with Fixed Effects

This paper studies a quantile regression spatial dynamic Durbin panel data (SDDPD) model with fixed effects. Conventional fixed effects estimators of quantile regression specification are usually biased in the presentation of lagged response variables in spatial and time as regressors. To reduce this bias, we propose the instrumental variable quantile regression (IVQR) estimator with lagged covariates in spatial and time as instruments. Under some regular conditions, the consistency and asymptotic normalityof the estimators are derived. Monte Carlo simulations show that our estimators not only perform well in finite sample cases at different quantiles but also have robustness for different spatial weights matrices and for different disturbance term distributions. The proposed method is used to analyze the influencing factors of international tourism foreign exchange earnings of 31 provinces in China from 2011 to 2017.

A Spatial Dynamic Model for Export Intensity of Hazardous Industrial Waste: The Incentive Effect of Regional Environmental Policies

This paper analyses, in the context of the Environmental Kuznet Curve, the determinants of export intensity of hazardous industrial waste among Spanish regions, with particular attention to the influence of waste taxes and of environmental policies. This study is carried out for the first time in the literature with a spatial dynamic model, fixed effects and panel data for the 17 regions (Comunidades Autónomas) of Spain during the period 2007–2017. The results suggest there is a spatial-dynamic component to export intensity, and that both regional taxes on waste disposal and environmental policy stringency appear to encourage, albeit modestly, the rate of exported waste to other regions. The model also shows that the more regions recycle, and the greater the economies of scale arising from industrial agglomeration, the lower is the region’s waste export intensity, although increasing restrictions on the international trade in hazardous waste have intensified trading inside the country. Finally, the results suggest a non-linear relationship between growth and export intensity, although apparently we are still far from the absolute decoupling of the Environmental Kuznet Curve.

Las características del espacio urbano como factores de exposición al COVID-19 en Ciudad de México

El artículo muestra la interacción entre las desigualdades socioespaciales acumuladas históricamente y la dinámica espacial del riesgo de contagio de COVID-19 en Ciudad de México. El objetivo es analizar la relación en el espacio urbano entre la localización de algunos factores de exposición al virus, identificados en la bibliografía especializada (vinculados con el transporte, la vivienda y el empleo) y la dinámica espacial de los contagios. Con métodos de análisis espacial, se vinculan conceptos de la ecología política y la teoría de la construcción social del riesgo. Se concluye que las condiciones de habitabilidad, el tiempo de traslado en medios de transporte colectivo y los niveles de desarrollo social son factores que determinan el comportamiento espacial de los contagios. Las periferias urbanas marginadas constituyen sitios desfavorecidos, en cuanto a las condiciones de exposición. Abstract The article shows the interaction between historically accumulated socio-spatial inequalities and the spatial dynamic of the risk of contagion of COVID-19 in Mexico City. The objective is to analyze the urban spatial relationship between the location of exposure factors to the virus, identified through literature review (associated with transport, living and employment), and the spatial dynamic of contagion. By using spatial analysis methods and techniques, concepts from political ecology and the theory of social construction of risk are connected. It is concluded that the conditions of habitability, the commuting time in public transportation and the levels of social development are determining factors of the spatial behaviour of contagion. Due to conditions of exposure, marginalized urban peripheries become disadvantaged places.

What pushed Israel out of herd immunity? Modeling COVID-19 spread of Delta and Waning immunity

Following a successful vaccination campaign at the beginning of 2021 in Israel, where approximately 60% of the population were vaccinated with an mRNA BNT162b2 vaccine, it seemed that Israel had crossed the herd immunity threshold (HIT). Nonetheless, Israel has seen a steady rise in COVID-19 morbidity since June 2021, reaching over 1,000 cases per million by August. This outbreak is attributed to several events that came together: the temporal decline of the vaccine's efficacy (VE); lower efficacy of the vaccine against the current Delta (B.1.617.2) variant; highly infectiousness of Delta; and temporary halt of mandated NPIs (non-pharmaceutical interventions) or any combination of the above. Using a novel spatial-dynamic model and recent aggregate data from Israel, we examine the extent of the impact of the Delta variant on morbidity and whether it can solely explain the outbreak. We conclude that both Delta infectiousness and waning immunity could have been able to push Israel above the HIT independently, and thus, to mitigate the outbreak effective NPIs are required. Our analysis cautions countries that once vaccines' will wane a highly infectious spread is expected, and therefore, the expected decline in the vaccine's effectiveness in those countries should be accompanied by another vaccination campaign and effective NPIs