The Role of Arrest Risk Perception Formation in the Association Between Psychopathy and Aggressive Offending

Research on the role of risk perception as a mechanism linking personality traits and behavioral outcomes is limited. The current study assessed a developmental model of the influence of psychopathic traits (PPTs) on the between- and within-individual variation in perceptions of risk and aggressive offending. Multivariate latent growth curve models were used to estimate the role of risk perceptions in the association between PPTs and aggressive offending in a sample of 1,354 adjudicated youths. The results indicated that PPTs influenced between-individual differences in perceptions of risk (β = −.312) and aggressive offending (β = .256), although the effects on within-individual differences suggested some attenuation over time. Additionally, higher PPT scores exhibited an indirect influence on increased aggressive offending through reduced perceptions of risk (β = .049). Implications from this line of research support calls for a developmentally informed juvenile justice system that considers latent personality traits and their long-term effects. Broader implications support individualized rehabilitative programming and tailored responses to offending over the blanket deterrence approach that dominates the current landscape of the American criminal justice system.

Ambient temperature as a moderator of the reactive criminal thinking – violent offending relationship: a multilevel analysis

Purpose This study aims to investigate the potential moderating effect of the average annual ambient temperature in 24 European countries on the relationship between criminal thinking (reactive vs proactive) and juvenile offending (violent vs property). Design/methodology/approach The average annual ambient temperatures found in 24 European countries were correlated with measures of reactive vs proactive criminal thinking and violent vs property offending in 56,518 students (50.4% female) from the second International Self-Reported Delinquency Study. These data were analyzed using a multilevel model comprising three Level 1 (student) predictors – age, sex and family structure – one Level 2 (country) predictor – ambient temperature – and two outcome measures – a reactive: proactive criminal thinking index (RPI) and a violent: property offending index (VPI). Findings The RPI and VPI correlated significantly with the Level 1 predictors, and the annual ambient temperatures from these 24 countries (Level 2 predictor) correlated positively with RPI and VPI and moderated the effect of reactive criminal thinking (RCT) on violent offending. Practical implications These findings indicate that ambient temperature correlates with violent/aggressive offending after the effects of property/non-aggressive offending have been controlled and suggest that ambient temperature may moderate the relationship between RCT and violent offending by affecting the decision-making process. Originality/value The contribution made by this study to the literature is that it illustrates how a macro-level influence in the form of average annual temperature can impact on micro-level processes in the form of criminal thinking and violent behavior.