Does the Kyoto Protocol as an International Environmental Policy Promote Forest Carbon Sinks?

Under the background of carbon neutrality, the carbon sequestration of forest ecosystems is an important way to mitigate climate change. Forest could not only protect the environment but also an important industry for economic development. As an international climate policy that first recognized the role of forest carbon sinks on climate change, the question becomes, has the Kyoto Protocol promoted the development of forest carbon sinks in contracting parties? To explore this, data of forest can be obtained at the national level. Hence, data of economic, social, polity and climate in 147 countries is also collected. The generalized synthetic control method is adopted. The results show that the policy effect of the Kyoto Protocol was obvious and significant. Moreover, the effect was more significant after the enforcement in 2005. Especially after the first commitment period, the policy effect of the second period is more obvious. Some policy implications are drawn.

A Question of Value: On the Legality of Using Kyoto Protocol Units under the Paris Agreement

The first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol generated about 4.3 billion Assigned Amount Units (aaus) and about 180 million Certified Emission Reductions (cers) for carry-over by Annex i states and potential use as ‘overachievements’ or offsets to discount emissions under ndcs. The second commitment period may generate additional carry-over units, and there is an estimated ‘dormant’ amount of about 4.6 billion cers that could be issued from ongoing cdm projects. To rely on these units risks upsetting the process of trust-building necessary to increase ambition under the Paris Agreement. This article questions the legality of carry-overs but finds that a textual interpretation of the current legal framework under both treaties leaves the matter unresolved. With a more refined legal interpretation, based on the principles of environmental integrity and sound accounting under the Paris Agreement, the article re-evaluates aaus and cers under the Agreement, by relying on insights from a social theory of value and the critical studies literature on the political economy of carbon markets. The conclusion is that aaus cannot be used under the ndc accounting framework, as their formal value of 1 Mt CO2 eq. under the Kyoto Protocol is considerably diminished under the Agreement. As for cers, their value depends on different social realities related to their issuance. States or the cma should adopt transparent criteria to select the cers that are worth transitioning pursuant to the Article 6.4 mechanism. The same conceptual framework of value-attribution can also inform the design and operation of the Article 6 mechanisms and their units in order to attain higher environmental integrity and sound accounting for ndcs.

Plutonium in Manhattan Project workers: Using autopsy data to evaluate organ content and dose estimates based on urine bioassay with implications for radiation epidemiology

Purpose Radiation dose estimates in epidemiology typically rely on intake predictions based on urine bioassay measurements. The purpose of this article is to compare the conventional dosimetric estimates for radiation epidemiology with the estimates based on additional post-mortem tissue radiochemical analysis results. Methods The comparison was performed on a unique group of 11 former Manhattan Project nuclear workers, who worked with plutonium in the 1940s, and voluntarily donated their bodies to the United States Transuranium and Uranium Registries. Results Post-mortem organ activities were predicted using different sets of urine data and compared to measured activities. Use of urinalysis data collected during the exposure periods overestimated the systemic (liver+skeleton) deposition of 239Pu by 155±134%, while the average bias from using post-exposure urinalyses was –4±50%. Committed effective doses estimated using early urine data differed from the best estimate by, on average, 196±193%; inclusion of follow-up urine measurements in analyses decreased the mean bias to 0.6±36.3%. Cumulative absorbed doses for the liver, red marrow, bone surface, and brain were calculated for the actual commitment period. Conclusion On average, post-exposure urine bioassay results were in good agreement with post-mortem tissue analyses and were more reliable than results of urine bioassays collected during the exposure.

Influence of the enterprise’s intelligent performance evaluation model using neural network and genetic algorithm on the performance compensation of the merger and acquisition parties in the commitment period

The purpose is to study the performance compensation of the bid purchased during the mergers and acquisitions (M&A) process. An intelligent model of enterprise performance appraisal is built to analyze the performances of the acquired enterprises. First, the evaluation indicators of enterprise performance are selected from both financial and non-financial aspects. An enterprise performance appraisal model is established based on the neural networks and optimized by the factor analysis method and Genetic Algorithm (GA). The principal factors affecting enterprise performance are analyzed. Then the M&A parties’ performances during the M&A commitment period under the earnings compensation mechanism are analyzed quantitatively. Corresponding hypotheses and evaluation indicators are established. Mean test results and regression analyses demonstrate that the hypotheses proposed are valid under particular circumstances. Introducing the earnings compensation mechanism during the M&A process can improve the enterprise performance effectively so that the earnings forecasted in the commitment period are significantly higher than the historical profitability. Hence, the earnings compensation mechanism plays a positive role in guiding enterprise performance. Comparison with models proposed in previous research reveals that the output error ratio of the designed corporate performance evaluation model is 1.16%, which can effectively evaluate corporate performance. The above results provide a reference for studying the impact of the earnings compensation mechanism on enterprise performance during the M&A process.

Farmers’ Preferences Regarding the Design of Animal Welfare Programs: Insights from a Choice-Based Conjoint Study in Germany

As more animal welfare is required in livestock farming, several approaches have been developed to improve the well-being of farmed animals on a voluntary basis. Since farmers’ acceptance is important for the success of these approaches, their preferences should be considered when developing farm animal welfare programs. We used choice based conjoint analysis to investigate the preferences of 242 German livestock farmers (147 cattle farmers; 95 pig farmers) regarding the design of farm animal welfare programs. The conditional logit regression models show that the measures serving as basis for remuneration and the compensation level were of decisive importance for the farmers’ choices. The most preferred measure for assessing animal welfare, and thus as the basis for remuneration, was animal health. As expected, a higher compensation level led to greater acceptance of an animal welfare approach. The commitment period was only of subordinate importance with the longer commitment period being preferred. Our study outlines aspects of farm animal welfare programs that might encourage farmers to participate in these programs. Future programs could consider our findings by emphasising health parameters and by creating planning security through longer commitment periods and sufficiently high compensations for farmers’ efforts to improve animal welfare.

Effectiveness of performance compensation commitment under Information Inequality

The demand of information society promotes the production of performance compensation commitment, which is used to alleviate the information asymmetry between investors and listed companies. The generation of performance compensation commitments has reduced valuation difficulties and other problems to a certain extent, lowered M&A costs and improved M&A efficiency. However, as the sample size increases, its drawbacks have gradually emerged. Youbo Pharmaceutical has stepped on the line for three consecutive years to achieve accurate performance. After the commitment period expires, the performance has dropped by more than 50%, so the authenticity of its performance has been questioned. Through the analysis of its announcement and various indicators, I find that the performance compensation commitment can not bring good market reaction after the commitment period, nor can it improve the integration effect, and even there are some behaviors such as premium, goodwill impairment risk and earnings management.

Analysis of Russia's Approach to Kyoto Protocol: Russia's Withdrawal from Second Commitment Period (2013-2020)

In 2004 Russia ratified Kyoto Protocol, one of the international agreements which focuses on climate change mitigation. Kyoto Protocol was established as a framework for countries to mitigate climate change globally by reducing their greenhouse gas emissions accordingly to their respective targets. Russia officially participated in the first commitment period of Kyoto Protocol in 2005 after ensuring the benefits by doing so. Entering the second commitment period, in 2011 Russia decided to withdraw. In consideration of Russia’s position as the largest fossil fuel energy exporter and as a country whose economy is in restoration, Russia’s approach to Kyoto Protocol is based on its interests and benefits which it gains from the framework. This paper analyzes the factors behind Russia’s withdrawal from the second commitment period of Kyoto Protocol through the perspective of offensive realism with qualitative methodology. The thesis finds that Russia’s reasoning of withdrawal was an act to protect its national interest, which is economic security, specifically its energy sector.

Climate Multilateralism Within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

The signing of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) by 154 nations at the Rio “Earth Summit” in 1992 marked the beginning of multilateral climate negotiations. Aiming for the “stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system,” the Convention divided parties according to different commitments and established the common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities (CBDRRC) principle. In 1997, parties to the Convention adopted the Kyoto Protocol, which entered into force in 2005. The Protocol set internationally binding emission reduction targets based on a rigid interpretation of the CBDRRC principle. Different perceptions on a fair distribution of climate change mitigation costs hindered multilateral efforts to tackle the problem. Climate change proved a “super wicked” challenge (intricately linked to security, development, trade, water, energy, food, land use, transportation, etc.) and this fact led to a lack of consensus on the distribution of rights and responsibilities among countries. Indeed, since 1992, greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere have increased significantly and the Kyoto Protocol did not reverse the trend. In 2009, a new political framework, the Copenhagen Accord, was signed. Although parties recognized the need to limit global warming to < 2°C to prevent dangerous climate change, they did not agree on a clear path toward a legally-binding treaty to succeed the Kyoto Protocol, whose first commitment period would end in 2012. A consensus would only be reached in 2015, when a new, partially legally-binding treaty—the Paris Climate Agreement—committing all parties to limit global warming to “well below 2°C” was finally signed. It came into force in November 2016. Described in many political, public, and academic contexts as a diplomatic success, the agreement suffers, however, from several limitations to its effectiveness. The nationally determined contributions that parties have presented thus far under the agreement would limit warming to approximately 3°C by 2100, placing the Earth at a potentially catastrophic level of climate change. Forces that resist the profound transformations necessary to stabilize the Earth’s climate dominate climate change governance. Throughout almost three decades of international negotiations, global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have increased substantially and at a rapid pace, and climate change has worsened significantly.

Impact of a Mobile App–Based Health Coaching and Behavior Change Program on Participant Engagement and Weight Status of Overweight and Obese Children: Retrospective Cohort Study

Background Effective treatment of obesity in children and adolescents traditionally requires frequent in-person contact, and it is often limited by low participant engagement. Mobile health tools may offer alternative models that enhance participant engagement. Objective The aim of this study was to assess child engagement over time, with a mobile app–based health coaching and behavior change program for weight management, and to examine the association between engagement and change in weight status. Methods This was a retrospective cohort study of user data from Kurbo, a commercial program that provides weekly individual coaching via video chat and supports self-monitoring of health behaviors through a mobile app. Study participants included users of Kurbo between March 2015 and March 2017, who were 5 to 18 years old and who were overweight or obese (body mass index; BMI ≥ 85th percentile or ≥ 95th percentile) at baseline. The primary outcome, engagement, was defined as the total number of health coaching sessions received. The secondary outcome was change in weight status, defined as the change in BMI as a percentage of the 95th percentile (%BMIp95). Analyses of outcome measures were compared across three initial commitment period groups: 4 weeks, 12 to 16 weeks, or 24 weeks. Multivariable linear regression models were constructed to adjust outcomes for the independent variables of sex, age group (5-11 years, 12-14 years, and 15-18 years), and commitment period. A sensitivity analysis was conducted, excluding a subset of participants involuntarily assigned to the 12- to 16-week commitment period by an employer or health plan. Results A total of 1120 participants were included in analyses. At baseline, participants had a mean age of 12 years (SD 2.5), mean BMI percentile of 96.6 (SD 3.1), mean %BMIp95 of 114.5 (SD 16.5), and they were predominantly female 68.04% (762/1120). Participant distribution across commitment periods was 26.07% (292/1120) for 4 weeks, 61.61% (690/1120) for 12-16 weeks, and 12.32% (138/1120) for 24 weeks. The median coaching sessions (interquartile range) received were 8 (3-16) for the 4-week group, 9 (5-12) for the 12- to 16-week group, and 19 (11-25) for the 24-week group (P<.001). Adjusted for sex and age group, participants in the 4- and 12-week groups participated in –8.03 (95% CI –10.19 to –5.87) and –9.34 (95% CI –11.31 to –7.39) fewer coaching sessions, compared with those in the 24-week group (P<.001). Adjusted for commitment period, sex, and age group, the overall mean change in %BMIp95 was –0.21 (95% CI –0.25 to –0.17) per additional coaching session (P<.001). Conclusions Among overweight and obese children using a mobile app–based health coaching and behavior change program, increased engagement was associated with longer voluntary commitment periods, and increased number of coaching sessions was associated with decreased weight status.