Subduction zone heterogeneity observed across the magnitude spectrum for megathrust earthquakes

<p>Observations from recent great subduction zone earthquakes highlight the influence of spatial geologic heterogeneity on overall rupture characteristics, such as areas of high co-seismic slip, and resulting tsunami generation.  Defining the relevant spatial heterogeneity is thus important to understanding potential hazards associated with the megathrust. The more frequent, smaller magnitude earthquakes that commonly occur in subduction zones are often used to help delineate the spatial heterogeneity.  Here we provide an overview of several subduction zones, including Costa Rica, Mexico, and Cascadia, highlighting connections between the small earthquake source characteristics and rupture behavior of larger earthquakes.  Estimates of small earthquake locations and stress drop are presented in each location, utilizing data from coastal and/or ocean bottom seismic stations.  These seismicity characteristics are then compared with other geologic and geophysical parameters, such as upper and lower plate characteristics, geodetic locking, and asperity locations from past large earthquakes.  For example, in the Cascadia subduction zone, we find clusters of small earthquakes located in regions of previous seamount subduction, with variations in earthquake stress drop reflecting potentially disrupted upper plate material deformed as a seamount passed.  Other variations in earthquake location and stress drop can be correlated with observed geodetic locking variations. </p>

An Earthquake Source Spectrum Model Considering Rupture Directivity and Its Application for Obtaining Green’s Functions

ABSTRACT A small earthquake with strong rupture directivity is inappropriate to use as a point source when estimating ground motion. A source spectrum model is proposed to remove the effects of rupture directivity and finite fault size from observed earthquakes. This model is developed by using a kinematic source model of a rectangular fault with bilateral-bidirectional rupture propagation. Its amplitude spectrum is modeled to decay as ω−2 at high frequency and is approximated by its envelope to make deconvolution a stable operation. The effectiveness of the proposed spectrum model is demonstrated through application to the two aftershocks of Mw 4.0 and Mw 5.5 observed following the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake. These aftershocks had similar focal mechanisms and were located near to each other. A method to estimate the source parameters by using the proposed spectrum model is presented and its effectiveness is demonstrated. The deconvolution of the ground-motion records using a suitable source spectrum model gives us the Green’s function. The amplitude spectra of the Green’s functions obtained from both observed aftershock events are shown to be consistent. The far-field ground motions are simulated by using the Green’s functions. The simulated ground motions match well with the observed ones. Simulation of the ground motions by using the Green’s functions obtained from the deconvolution of ground-motion records by the proposed spectrum model has an advantage compared to the use of small earthquake records as empirical Green’s functions (EGFs). Specifically, this approach reduces the variation in ground-motion simulation results due to the choice of different EGFs.

Earthquake Statistics Vary with Fault Size

A theoretical study explores why small earthquake sources can produce quasiperiodic sequences of identical events, whereas earthquakes on large faults are intrinsically more variable.

Complex hazard cascade culminating in the Anak Krakatau sector collapse

Flank instability and sector collapses, which pose major threats, are common on volcanic islands. On 22 Dec 2018, a sector collapse event occurred at Anak Krakatau volcano in the Sunda Strait, triggering a deadly tsunami. Here we use multiparametric ground-based and space-borne data to show that prior to its collapse, the volcano exhibited an elevated state of activity, including precursory thermal anomalies, an increase in the island’s surface area, and a gradual seaward motion of its southwestern flank on a dipping décollement. Two minutes after a small earthquake, seismic signals characterize the collapse of the volcano’s flank at 13:55 UTC. This sector collapse decapitated the cone-shaped edifice and triggered a tsunami that caused 430 fatalities. We discuss the nature of the precursor processes underpinning the collapse that culminated in a complex hazard cascade with important implications for the early detection of potential flank instability at other volcanoes.

Thermal Anomalies Detection Using Comparative Method for Small Earthquake

Thermal anomaly is one of the earthquake precursor in the earthquake preparatory phase. Remote sensing in thermal region has been employed based on the concept of stress accumulation in the active plate tectonics region, which may be transformed as temperature variation prior to earthquake. MODIS Land Surface Temperature has been commonly used to locate the thermal anomalies before the earthquake. Recently researches have been focusing on moderate or large magnitude earthquake events. In Thailand, small earthquake can severely damage the unprepared area. This study, the daily day- and nighttime data of MODIS MOD11A1 product for 30 days before and 15 days after the earthquake on April 22, 2007, in Wiang Pa Pao District, Chiang Rai Province, Thailand, were processed and analysed to locate possibility of thermal anomalies. Thermal anomalies before and after the earthquakes were detected using the comparative method. The result found that the thermal anomaly temperature could be high up to 4.1 - 10.9 C which occurred in 21 - 22 days prior to the earthquake. Therefore, it may conclude that small earthquake can also release energy as the detectable thermal anomaly. However, more study about the relationship between thermal precursor and earthquake is needed to continue.