Predicting County-Level Overdose Death Rates Amid the Escalating Overdose Crisis in the United States: A Statistical Modeling Approach Predicting Deaths Through 2022

Aims. U.S. overdose (OD) deaths continue to escalate but are characterized by geographic and temporal heterogeneity. We previously validated a predictive statistical model to predict county-level OD mortality nationally from 2013 to 2018. Herein, we aimed to: 1) validate our model’s performance at predicting county-level OD mortality in 2019 and 2020; 2) modify and validate our model to predict OD mortality in 2022.Methods. We evaluated our mixed effects negative binomial model’s performance at predicting county-level OD mortality in 2019 and 2020. Further, we modified our model which originally used data from the year X to predict OD deaths in the year X+1 to instead predict deaths in year X+3. We validated this modification for the years 2017 through 2019 and generated future-oriented predictions for 2022. Finally, to leverage available, albeit incomplete, 2020 OD mortality data, we also modified and validated our model to predict OD deaths in year X+2 and generated an alternative set of predictions for 2022.Results. Our original model continued to perform with similar efficacy in 2019 and 2020, remaining superior to a benchmark approach. Our modified X+3 model performed with similar efficacy as our original model, and we present predictions for 2022, including identification of counties most likely to experience highest OD mortality rates. There was a high correlation (Spearman’s ρ = 0.93) between the rank ordering of counties for our 2022 predictions using our X+3 and X+2 models. However, the X+3 model (which did not account for OD escalation during COVID) predicted only 62,000 deaths nationwide for 2022, whereas the X+2 model predicted over 87,000.Conclusion. We have predicted county-level overdose death rates for 2022 across the US. These predictions, made publicly available in our online application, can be used to identify counties at highest risk of high OD mortality and support evidence-based OD prevention planning.

Black and Native Overdose Mortality Overtook that of White Individuals During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Drug overdose mortality rates have increased sharply during the COVID-19 pandemic. In recent years, overdose death rates were rising most rapidly among racial/ethnic minority communities. The pandemic has disproportionately affected communities of color in a wide swath of health, social, and economic outcomes. Careful attention is therefore warranted to trends in overdose mortality by race/ethnicity during COVID-19. We calculated total drug overdose death rates per 100,000 population by race/ethnicity for the 1999-2020 time period. We find that Black overdose mortality overtook that of White individuals in 2020 for the first time since 1999. Between 2019 and 2020 Black individuals had the largest percent increase in overdose mortality, of 48.8%, compared to 26.3% among White individuals. In 2020, Black overdose death rates rose to 36.8 per 100,000, representing 16.3% higher than the rate for White individuals for the same period. American Indian and Alaska Native (AI/AN) individuals experienced the highest rate of overdose mortality in 2020, of 41.4 per 100,000, representing 30.8% higher than the rate among White individuals. Our findings suggest that drug overdose mortality is increasingly becoming a racial justice issue in the United States and appears to have been exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Providing individuals with a safer supply of drugs, closing gaps in access to MOUD and harm reductions services, and ending routine incarceration of individuals with substance use disorders represent urgently needed, evidence-based strategies that can be employed to reduce rising inequalities in overdose.

Examining prevalence and correlates of smoking opioids in British Columbia: opioids are more often smoked than injected

Background British Columbia (BC) is in the midst of an opioid overdose crisis. Since 2017, smoking illicit drugs has been the leading mode of drug administration causing overdose death. Yet, little is known about people who smoke opioids, and factors underlying choice of mode of administration. The study objectives are to identify the prevalence and correlates associated with smoking opioids. Methods The Harm Reduction Client Survey is a monitoring tool used by the BC Centre for Disease Control since 2012. This survey is disseminated to harm reduction sites across BC to understand drug use trends and drug-related harms. We examined data from the survey administered October–December 2019 and performed descriptive, univariate, and multivariate analyses to better understand factors associated with smoking opioids. Results A total of 369 people who used opioids in the past 3 days were included, of whom 251 (68.0%) reported smoking opioids. A total of 109 (29.5%) respondents experienced an overdose in the past 6 months; of these 79 (72.5%) smoked opioids. Factors significantly associated with smoking opioids were: living in a small community (AOR =2.41, CI =1.27–4.58), being a woman (AOR = 1.84, CI = 1.03–3.30), age under 30 (AOR = 5.41, CI = 2.19–13.40) or 30–39 (AOR = 2.77, CI = 1.33–5.78) compared to age ≥ 50, using drugs alone (AOR = 2.98, CI = 1.30–6.83), and owning a take-home naloxone kit (AOR = 2.01, CI = 1.08–3.72). Reported use of methamphetamines within the past 3 days was strongly associated with smoking opioids (AOR = 6.48, CI = 3.51–11.96). Conclusions Our findings highlight important correlates associated with smoking opioids, particularly the recent use of methamphetamines. These findings identify actions to better respond to the overdose crisis, such as targeted harm reduction approaches, educating on safer smoking, advocating for consumption sites where people can smoke drugs, and providing a regulated supply of opioids that can be smoked.

Disparities in Opioid Overdose Death Trends by Race/Ethnicity, 2018–2019, From the HEALing Communities Study

Objectives. To examine trends in opioid overdose deaths by race/ethnicity from 2018 to 2019 across 67 HEALing Communities Study (HCS) communities in Kentucky, New York, Massachusetts, and Ohio. Methods. We used state death certificate records to calculate opioid overdose death rates per 100 000 adult residents of the 67 HCS communities for 2018 and 2019. We used Poisson regression to calculate the ratio of 2019 to 2018 rates. We compared changes by race/ethnicity by calculating a ratio of rate ratios (RRR) for each racial/ethnic group compared with non-Hispanic White individuals. Results. Opioid overdose death rates were 38.3 and 39.5 per 100 000 for 2018 and 2019, respectively, without a significant change from 2018 to 2019 (rate ratio = 1.03; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.98, 1.08). We estimated a 40% increase in opioid overdose death rate for non-Hispanic Black individuals (RRR = 1.40; 95% CI = 1.22, 1.62) relative to non-Hispanic White individuals but no change among other race/ethnicities. Conclusions. Overall opioid overdose death rates have leveled off but have increased among non-Hispanic Black individuals. Public Health Implications. An antiracist public health approach is needed to address the crisis of opioid-related harms. (Am J Public Health. Published online ahead of print September 9, 2021:e1–e4. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2021.306431 )

Exploring opioid addictions and responsibilities: almost lost in the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic

Purpose The purpose of this study is to highlight the overshadowing of the opioid crisis due to Covid-19 pandemic. Opioids are affecting increasing numbers as the current opioid overdose death rate is increasing to 209 per day. While there appears light shining on the end of the Covid-19 pandemic with the advent of a fourth vaccine, there is no such light for the opioid epidemic. Based on a sample of 603 relatively educated adults in NE Ohio, the health harm caused by both crises, prescribing physician blaming, high levels of income loss and physical and emotional burdens shared by the respondents were obvious and striking. Design/methodology/approach Using Bertram et al. (2014) theory of the blame model, the number of results concerning gender and personally involvement of friends and family members, including men empathy increased with greater knowledge of numbers of addicted opioid users in their personal contracts. Findings Unfortunately, many women had to remain home taking care of children and elderly loved ones at greater percentages than their male counterparts may account for less empathy as such addicted users have become a burden to economically impaired families. This tendency for placing blame for circumstances with twin crises appears to follow a relatively predictable path as modeled by Bertram et al. (2014) (i.e. denial, justification and excuse). Originality/value These are few studies that are studying the amplification effects of the Covid-19 pandemic context on the current opioid crisis.