Do consumer survey data help improve US vehicle sales forecasts?

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamid Baghestani
Keyword(s):  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Motor Vehicle ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Consumer Survey ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Combining Forecasts ◽  
Business Conditions ◽  
Survey Responses ◽  
Future Business

PurposeThis study is concerned with evaluating the Federal Reserve forecasts of light motor vehicle sales. The goal is to assess accuracy gains from using consumer vehicle-buying attitudes and expectations about future business conditions derived from the long-running Michigan Surveys of Consumers.Design/methodology/approachSimplicity is a core principle in forecasting, and the literature provides plentiful evidence that combining forecasts from different methods and models reduces out-of-sample forecast errors if the methods and models are valid. As such, the authors construct a simple vector autoregressive (VAR) model that incorporates consumer vehicle-buying attitudes and expectations about future business conditions. Comparable forecasts of vehicle sales from this model are then combined with the Federal Reserve forecasts to assess accuracy gains.FindingsThe findings for 1994–2016 indicate that the Federal Reserve and VAR forecasts contain distinct and useful predictive information, and the combination of the two forecasts shows reductions in forecast errors that are more significant at longer horizons. The authors thus conclude that there are accuracy gains from using consumer survey responses.Originality/valueThis is the first study that is concerned with evaluating the Federal Reserve forecasts of vehicle sales and examines whether there are accuracy gains from using consumer vehicle-buying attitudes and expectations.

Alternative transportation education: implementing an innovative module

2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 157-176
Author(s):  
Kelly McKenna ◽  
Levi Altringer
Keyword(s):  
Mixed Methods Research ◽  
Local Community ◽  
Motor Vehicle ◽  
Small Sample Size ◽  
Active Transportation ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Student Survey ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Survey Responses

Purpose This study aims to investigate the Colorado state university (CSU) MOVES online, transportation module, which was implemented for the dual purpose of promoting alternative modes of transportation and while providing students with the information and skills necessary to comfortably and safely commute on and around campus without a personal motor vehicle. Design/methodology/approach This mixed methods research tests the effect of the CSU MOVES transportation module on students’ familiarity, comfortability and knowledgeability, the researchers investigate within- and across-group changes in student survey responses over time. Findings The educational transportation module had an immediate and significant impact on the students’ familiarity, comfortability and knowledgeability regarding alternative and active transportation methods and this effect lasted over the semester. In addition, participating students experienced much larger gains in their knowledgeability of safe active transportation practices. Research limitations/implications The CSU MOVES survey data was limited in multiple ways, including self-selection into participation and completion of the transportation module, as well as the small sample size and lack of an authentic control group. Originality/value Universities and colleges across the country are becoming critically aware of issues surrounding transportation on and around campus and CSU is one of the first universities to join together with the local community to implement a transportation education module. Transportation initiatives have been motivated by multiple factors such as the supply of and demand for parking on and around campuses, sustainability efforts to reduce carbon emissions associated with university operations and the promotion of student health through active lifestyle practices.

Generational differences and implicit leadership schemas in the Philippine workforce

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Helen C. Salvosa ◽  
Maria Regina M. Hechanova
Keyword(s):  
Generational Differences ◽  
The Political ◽  
Generational Cohort ◽  
Implicit Leadership ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Diverse Workforce ◽  
Technology Generation ◽  
Generation Cohorts ◽  
Cohort Theory ◽  
Survey Responses

PurposeThis study examined generational differences in traits and desired schemas of leaders among Filipino workers using the lens of the generational cohort theory.Design/methodology/approachThis study utilized a sequential exploratory mixed-method approach. Phase One of the study utilized a qualitative approach in eliciting perceived characteristics and leadership schemas. Phase Two utilized a quantitative approach utilizing a survey to test generational differences.FindingsCluster analysis of survey responses of 341 Filipino workers showed two generation cohorts – the political and technological generation. Respondents from the political generation characterized themselves as being work-centered, family-oriented, traditional, seasoned, decisive and multi-tasking. The political generation also believes that an ideal leader is someone who cares about people's welfare, delegates, and is able to control others. On the other hand, the technology generation described themselves as being tech-savvy, carefree, laid-back, proud, individualistic, self-centered, arrogant, energetic and adventurous. The technological generation views an ideal leader as someone who is responsible, provides clear instructions, listens, and recognizes people.Research limitations/implicationsThe study focuses on Filipino workers and more studies in other countries are needed to establish generational differences in schemas.Practical implicationsThe results have implications on the way that leaders are selected and developed especially in an increasingly diverse workforce.Social implicationsThe results highlight the role of political, sociocultural events and technological trends that shape the traits and schemas of workers.Originality/valueThe study contributes to both generational studies as well as implicit leadership literature. The study highlights the value of examining the intersection of both culture and generation in the context of leadership.

Knowledge needs in the non-profit sector: an evidence-based model of organizational practices

2016 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-48 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dinesh Rathi ◽  
Lisa M. Given ◽  
Eric Forcier
Keyword(s):  
Quantitative Data ◽  
Qualitative Data ◽  
Free Text ◽  
Evidence Based ◽  
Theory Approach ◽  
Organizational Practices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Non Profit ◽  
Types Of Knowledge ◽  
Survey Responses

Purpose – This paper aims to present findings from a study of non-profit organizations (NPOs), including a model of knowledge needs that can be applied by practitioners and scholars to further develop the NPO sector. Design/methodology/approach – A survey was conducted with NPOs operating in Canada and Australia. An analysis of survey responses identified the different types of knowledge essential for each organization. Respondents identified the importance of three pre-determined themes (quantitative data) related to knowledge needs, as well as a fourth option, which was a free text box (qualitative data). The quantitative and qualitative data were analyzed using descriptive statistical analyses and a grounded theory approach, respectively. Findings – Analysis of the quantitative data indicates that NPOs ' needs are comparable in both countries. Analysis of qualitative data identified five major categories and multiple sub-categories representing the types of knowledge needs of NPOs. Major categories are knowledge about management and organizational practices, knowledge about resources, community knowledge, sectoral knowledge and situated knowledge. The paper discusses the results using semantic proximity and presents an emergent, evidence-based knowledge management (KM)-NPO model. Originality/value – The findings contribute to the growing body of literature in the KM domain, and in the understudied research domain related to the knowledge needs and experiences of NPOs. NPOs will find the identified categories and sub-categories useful to undertake KM initiatives within their individual organizations. The study is also unique, as it includes data from two countries, Canada and Australia.

Comparing entrepreneurial communities

2015 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 206-220 ◽  
Author(s):  
Justin Paul ◽  
Archana Shrivastava
Keyword(s):  
Information Technology ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Personality Factors ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Developed Country ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Mba Students ◽  
Emerging Country ◽  
Survey Responses

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to compare entrepreneurial attributes of MBA students, the next generation business people, from two important Asian countries, India from South Asia and Japan from East Asia (India, being an emerging country and Japan, a developed country). Design/methodology/approach – Survey responses from MBA students in India and Japan were measured on an entrepreneurial personality index. Bateman and Crant’s scale consisting of 17 traits is used to identify if entrepreneurial traits are a learned cultural behaviour or intrinsic personality factors. Findings – Although the findings indicate that India has benefitted from entrepreneurship in the information technology and information technology-enabled service ventures during the past two decades, the country still has a long way to go when compared to developed countries like Japan, where entrepreneurship is widespread. Research limitations/implications – The results are based on a single survey, using cross-sectional data. Originality/value – The level of entrepreneurship differs considerably across countries and periods. The authors put forward a theoretical framework to denote the linkage between entrepreneurial attitude, pro-active personality and culture, besides highlighting the three pillars of entrepreneurship.

The value relevance of capital expenditures and the business cycle

2018 ◽  
Vol 35 (3) ◽  
pp. 386-406 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sungsoo Kim ◽  
Brandon byunghwan Lee
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Value Relevance ◽  
Financial Data ◽  
Capital Expenditures ◽  
Capital Investments ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Business Conditions

Purpose This paper aims to clarify the relationship between corporate capital investments and business cycles. Specifically, a major purpose of this paper is to investigate whether there are inherent differences in corporate investment patterns and whether the stock market exhibits different reactions to the value relevance of capital expenditures across different business conditions. Design/methodology/approach The authors use pooled ordinary least square regressions with archival stock price data and financial data from CRSP and Compustat. The authors regress buy and hold returns on the main test variables and control variables that are identified to be related to the investment literature. Findings This paper provides empirical evidence that US firms’ capital expenditures are more value relevant to capital market participants during expansionary business cycles and, conversely, less value relevant during contractionary business cycles. This evidence validates previous literature that has found the information content of capital expenditures to be uncertain and cyclical in nature. Research limitations/implications The main limitation of this paper, as with other work dealing with stock returns and archived financial data, is that the authors try to match stock returns with contemporaneous financial data in an association study context. The precise mapping in this methodology is always challenging and has been questioned in the literature. Practical implications This paper has various implications for capital market participants. Capital expenditures are good news for investors, but they will make a better investment when firms make capital investments during an expansionary period. Creditors deciding whether to extend credit to firms would benefit from more accurate information on the viability of long-term investment. The results also suggest to creditors that an excessive number of loans during the contractionary period may be suboptimal because firms’ returns on capital investment are smaller in that period than in the expansionary period. Social implications Given the valuation of implications of long-term capital investments across different business conditions, this paper sheds light on asset allocations for mutual funds, institutional investors who are entrusted with investors’ investments including retirement funds. Originality/value This paper fulfils an identified need to study how capital investments are valued differently across different business conditions.

Volatility discovery in cryptocurrency markets

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Dimpfl ◽  
Dalia Elshiaty
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Stochastic Volatility Model ◽  
Discrete Version ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Volatility Model ◽  
Information Shares ◽  
The Common ◽  
To Come

PurposeCryptocurrency markets are notoriously noisy, but not all markets might behave in the exact same way. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to investigate which one of the cryptocurrency markets contributes the most to the common volatility component inherent in the market.Design/methodology/approachThe paper extracts each of the cryptocurrency's markets' latent volatility using a stochastic volatility model and, subsequently, models their dynamics in a fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive model. The authors use the refinement of Lien and Shrestha (2009, J. Futures Mark) to come up with unique Hasbrouck (1995, J. Finance) information shares.FindingsThe authors’ findings indicate that Bitfinex is the leading market for Bitcoin and Ripple, while Bitstamp dominates for Ethereum and Litecoin. Based on the dominant market for each cryptocurrency, the authors find that the volatility of Bitcoin explains most of the volatility among the different cryptocurrencies.Research limitations/implicationsThe authors’ findings are limited by the availability of the cryptocurrency data. Apart from Bitcoin, the data series for the other cryptocurrencies are not long enough to ensure the precision of the authors’ estimates.Originality/valueTo date, only price discovery in cryptocurrencies has been studied and identified. This paper extends the current literature into the realm of volatility discovery. In addition, the authors propose a discrete version for the evolution of a markets fundamental volatility, extending the work of Dias et al. (2018).

Markets are overreacting to US price and rates risks

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Futures Markets ◽  
The United States ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Bond Markets ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bond Yield ◽  
Ongoing Support

Significance The continuation of the modest manufacturing downturn follows the recent report of slower third-quarter GDP growth. Despite slower growth, bond markets are challenging an attempt by the Federal Reserve (Fed) to delink tapering from tightening by bringing forward their forecasts for rate increases: futures markets are pricing in two 25-basis-point rate hikes by end-2022. Impacts Equities are at a record high in the United States; providing ongoing support for this, real US bond yields remain in negative territory. The Brent crude oil price is near its highest since 2014; further upside will be limited but it is likely to stay high well into 2022. Germany’s ten-year bond yield, negative since April 2019, has risen by 40 basis points since end-August and will soon turn positive.

Dissatisfaction toward O2O websites: expectation disconfirmation and justice perspective

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tong Che ◽  
Meng Ji ◽  
Xiabing Zheng ◽  
Bo Feng
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Research Model ◽  
Justice Theory ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Customer Complaints ◽  
Justice Perception ◽  
Consumer Dissatisfaction ◽  
Expectation Disconfirmation ◽  
Survey Responses ◽  
Service Managers

PurposeThe online-to-offline (O2O) business is developing rapidly and is highly popular in many countries. Nevertheless, O2O suffers from a large number of customer complaints that result in consumer loss. Focusing on the O2O context, this study integrates expectation disconfirmation theory (EDT) and justice theory to investigate consumers' dissatisfaction toward O2O websites.Design/methodology/approachA research model was proposed and tested using 329 survey responses.FindingsResults show that the identified website disconfirmation and offline service disconfirmation could lead to consumer dissatisfaction. Importantly, the impacts of disconfirmation factors are contingent upon the justice perception of consumers. When a transaction is perceived as unfair, website disconfirmation arouses a higher level of dissatisfaction, and the negative emotions could transfer from O2O and damage the website's reputation.Originality/valueThis study explores the continuance intentions of customers toward O2O websites from a dissatisfaction perspective, with insights for future service studies and O2O service managers.

“SME executives’ perceptions and the information security preparedness model”

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenneth Albert Saban ◽  
Stephen Rau ◽  
Charles A. Wood
Keyword(s):  
Information Security ◽  
Prior Information ◽  
Security Studies ◽  
Department Of Justice ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Implementation Challenges ◽  
External Influences ◽  
True State ◽  
Survey Responses ◽  
Perception Of Security

Purpose Information security has increasingly been in the headlines as data breaches continue to occur at alarming rates. This paper aims to propose an Information Security Preparedness Model that was developed to examine how SME executives’ perceptions of security importance, implementation challenges and external influences impact their awareness and commitment to security preparedness. Design/methodology/approach Funded by the Department of Justice, a national survey of SME executives’ perceptions of information security preparedness was conducted. Using PLS-SEM, the survey responses were used to test the proposed Information Security Preparedness Model. Findings The results indicate that as perceptions of security importance and external influences increase, SME executives’ awareness and commitment to information security also increases. In addition, as implementation challenges increase, awareness and commitment to information security decreases. Finally, as security importance and awareness and commitment to information security increases, executives’ perception of security preparedness also increases. Research limitations/implications Executive perceptions of information security were measured and not the actual level of security. Further research that examines the agreement between executive perceptions and the true state of information security within the organization is warranted. Originality/value Prior information security studies using Roger’s (1975, 1983) Protection Motivation Theory have produced mixed results. This paper develops and tests the Information Security Preparedness Model to more fully explain SME executive’s perceptions of information security.

Rural women entrepreneurs in Oman: problems and opportunities

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Suhail M. Ghouse ◽  
Omar Durrah ◽  
Gerard McElwee
Keyword(s):  
Rural Women ◽  
Women Entrepreneurs ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
Equation Modeling ◽  
Research Approach ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Business Opportunities ◽  
Survey Responses ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Traditional Roles

PurposeThis paper examines the challenges associated with rural women entrepreneurs in Oman. The study is based on women living in rural and highland areas who aim to move beyond their traditional roles in the family seeking avenues for growth and development. It identifies several problems encountered by rural women entrepreneurs and the impact on their future business opportunities.Design/methodology/approachA mixed research approach involving quantitative and qualitative elements was adopted for the study. The research is based on 183 survey responses and personal interviews with 8 rural women entrepreneurs. Partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) was adopted to analyse the quantitative responses and depict a model featuring the intensity of the problems affecting business opportunities. Seven short cases based upon the interviews with rural women entrepreneurs are also detailed.FindingsSeveral problems experienced by rural women entrepreneurs were identified hampering their business ventures, linked to personality, family, educational, socio-cultural, facilities, legal, financial and economic, organizational and geographical, out of which household, organizational and geographical linked problems were most significant. Entrepreneurial opportunities for rural women entrepreneurs are discussed.Practical implicationsThe research suggests that the policymakers should holistically consider how the rural women engaged in informal business for various means can be better supported and sustained by overcoming associated problems, can achieve business opportunities and contribute to regional socio-economic development.Originality/valueThere is a limited literature available on rural women entrepreneurship in an Arab context. The study provides an overview of the challenges and problems experienced by these women and the support areas required to overcome them for their sustainability in this region.

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