Empirical Detection and Quantification of Price Transmission in Endogenously Unstable Markets: The Case of the Global–Domestic Coffee Supply Chain in Papua New Guinea

Price transmission through global–domestic agricultural supply chains is a fundamental indicator of domestic market efficiency and producer welfare. Conventional price-transmission econometrics test for a theory-based spatial-arbitrage restriction that long-run equilibrium prices in spatially distinct markets differ by no more than transaction costs. The conventional approach is ill-equipped to test for price transmission when endogenously unstable markets do not equilibrate due to systematic arbitrage-frustrating frictions including financial and institutional transaction costs and biophysical constraints. We propose a novel empirical framework using price data to test for market stability and price transmission along international-domestic supply chains incorporating nonlinear time series analysis and recently emerging causal-detection methods from empirical nonlinear dynamics. We apply the framework to map-out and quantify price transmission through the global-exporter–processor–producer coffee supply chain in Papua, New Guinea. We find empirical evidence of upstream price transmission from the global market to domestic exporters and processors, but not through to producers.

Relativistic Option Pricing

The change of information near light speed, advances in high-speed trading, spatial arbitrage strategies and foreseen space exploration, suggest the need to consider the effects of the theory of relativity in finance models. Time and space, under certain circumstances, are not dissociated and can no longer be interpreted as Euclidean. This paper provides an overview of the research made in this field while formally defining the key notions of spacetime, proper time and an understanding of how time dilation impacts financial models. We illustrate how special relativity modifies option pricing and hedging, under the Black–Scholes model, when market participants are in two different reference frames. In particular, we look into maturity and volatility relativistic effects.

Trade Liberalization and Regional Dynamics

We study the evolution of trade liberalization's effects on Brazilian local labor markets. Regions facing larger tariff cuts experienced prolonged declines in formal sector employment and earnings relative to other regions. The impact of tariff changes on regional earnings 20 years after liberalization was three times the effect after 10 years. These increasing effects on regional earnings are inconsistent with conventional spatial equilibrium models, which predict declining effects due to spatial arbitrage. We investigate potential mechanisms, finding empirical support for a mechanism involving imperfect interregional labor mobility and dynamics in labor demand, driven by slow capital adjustment and agglomeration economies. This mechanism gradually amplifies the effects of liberalization, explaining the slow adjustment path of regional earnings and quantitatively accounting for the magnitude of the long-run effects. (JEL F16, J23, J31, J61, O15, O19, R23)