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Author(s):  
Prem Woli ◽  
Francis M Rouquette ◽  
Charles R Long ◽  
Luis O Tedeschi ◽  
Guillermo Scaglia

Abstract The energy requirements, feed intake, and performance of grazing animals vary daily due to changes in weather conditions, forage nutritive values, and plant and animal maturity throughout the grazing season. Hence, realistic simulations of daily animal performance can be made only by the models that can address these changes. Given the dearth of simple, user-friendly models of this kind, especially for pastures, we developed a daily gain model for large-frame stockers grazing bermudagrass [Cynodon dactylon (L.) Pers.], a widely-used warm-season perennial grass in the southern United States. For model development, we first assembled some of the classic works in forage-beef modeling in the last 50 years into the National Research Council (NRC, 1984) weight gain model. Then, we tested it using the average daily gain (ADG) data obtained from several locations in the southern United States. The evaluation results showed that the performance of the NRC model was poor as it consistently underpredicted ADG throughout the grazing season. To improve the predictive accuracy of the NRC model to make it perform under bermudagrass grazing conditions, we made an adjustment on the model by adding the daily departures of the modeled values from the data trendline. Subsequently, we tested the revised model against an independent set of ADG data obtained from eight research locations in the region involving about 4,800 animals, using 30 years (1991-2020) of daily weather data. The values of the various measures of fit used, namely the Willmott index of 0.92, the modeling efficiency of 0.75, the R 2 of 0.76, the root mean square error of 0.13 kg d -1, and the prediction error relative to the mean observed data of 24% demonstrated that the revised model mimicked the pattern of observed ADG data satisfactorily. Unlike the original model, the revised model predicted more closely the ADG value throughout the grazing season. The revised model may be useful to accurately reflect the impacts of daily weather conditions, forage nutritive values, seasonality, and plant and animal maturity on animal performance.


Author(s):  
Pavlos Kassomenos ◽  
Giannis Kissas ◽  
Ilias Petrou ◽  
Paraskevi Begou ◽  
Hassan Saeed Khan ◽  
...  

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 70 (1) ◽  
pp. 133-140
Author(s):  
NIKITA SHIVHARE ◽  
ATUL KUMAR RAHUL ◽  
SHYAM BIHARI DWIVEDI ◽  
PRABHAT KUMAR SINGH DIKSHIT

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-53
Author(s):  
Brian E. Potter ◽  
Daniel McEvoy

Abstract“Megafires” are of scientific interest and concern for fire management, public safety planning, and smoke-related public health management. There is a need to predict them on time scales from days to decades. Understanding is limited, however, of the role of daily weather in determining their extreme size. This study examines differences in the daily weather during these and other, smaller fires, and in the two sets of fires’ responses to daily weather and antecedent atmospheric dryness. Twenty fires of unusual size (over 36 400 ha), were each paired with a nearby large fire (10 100 to 30 300 ha). Antecedent dryness and daily near-surface weather were compared for each set of fires. Growth response to daily weather was also examined for differences between the two sets of fires. Antecedent dryness measured as the Evaporative Demand Drought Index was greater for most of the fires of unusual size than it was for smaller fires. There were small differences in daily weather, with those differences indicating weather less conducive to fire growth for the unusually large fires than the smaller fires. Growth response was similar for the two sets of fires when weather properties were between 40th and 60th percentiles for each fire pair, but the unusually large fires’ growth was observably greater than the smaller fires’ growth for weather properties between the 80th to 100th percentiles. Response differences were greatest for wind speed, and for the Fosberg Fire Weather Index and variants of the Hot-Dry-Windy Index, which combine wind speed with atmospheric moisture.


2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 201-216
Author(s):  
Gregory T. Papanikos

The aim of this paper is to present Greek daily descriptive statistics on confirmed deaths due to COVID-19, the days of lockdown and their effect on the number of deaths, the outcomes of vaccinations and the influence of weather temperatures. Do lockdowns work in bringing the number of deaths down? The descriptive evidence shows that this is the case even though there is a considerable lagged effect. On the other hand, vaccinations, during the time period of examination, do not seem to have diminished the number of deaths, but the reason might be that it takes time for their full effect to occur. Finally, this paper also examines the hypothesis that during the summer months the daily deaths from COVID-19 are relatively lower than during the winter months. Using average daily weather temperatures, this hypothesis cannot be falsified. Simple calculations of the functional relation between weather temperatures and deaths show that temperatures above 28.5 degrees Celsius (°C) were associated with zero deaths. Keywords: COVID-19, deaths, Greece, lockdown, pandemic, vaccinations, weather temperatures


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Junpei Hirano ◽  
Tekahiko Mikami ◽  
Masumi Zaiki

Abstract. The East Asian winter monsoon is characterized by a strong east–west surface pressure gradient and the outbreak of cold air around Japan. It causes heavy snowfall in the Sea of Japan side of the Japanese Islands. Meanwhile, fine weather prevails over the Pacific Ocean side owing to topographical effects. Documents pertaining to daily weather in Japan often provide useful weather information regarding the appearance of typical “winter-monsoon-type weather patterns” in the historical period. In addition to historical daily weather documents, we recovered several early pressure observation series in Japan and China from the 19th century. A combined analysis of historical daily weather documents and early surface pressure observation may result in an effective detection of outbreaks arising from the East Asian winter monsoon in the historical period. Knowledge regarding atmospheric circulation fields associated with “winter-monsoon-type weather patterns” is essential for this combined analysis. We first investigate temporal evolutions of circulation fields associated with “winter-monsoon-type weather patterns” for the present day (1968–1980). The result indicates that the southward expansion of the Siberian High and eastward movement of extratropical cyclones around Japan result in a significant east–west surface pressure gradient in East Asia. This pressure gradient causes “winter-monsoon-type weather patterns” in Japan. Subsequently, we attempted to reconstruct the outbreak of the winter monsoon around Japan for the winter of 1851/52 using both historical weather documents and newly recovered early instrumental pressure data of Japan and China. The reconstructed results show that the outbreak of the East Asian winter monsoon can be reasonably detected by focusing on the sequence of reconstructed daily weather patterns and the east–west pressure gradient calculated using early instrumental pressure data.


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