The Establishment and Prediction of Regression Models of Energy Sales and System Peak Loading By Considering AMI Data for High Voltage Customers

This paper uses the complex regression analysis method to establish the customer’s load regression models, which consider economic indicators, temperature and rainfall. Furthermore, the proposed models are used to study the forecasting feasibility of the future energy sales and summer peak load demand. At first, this paper used least-squares techniques to derive regression models for considering economic indicators and temperature of 34 customer energy sales and total energy sales. Besides, the AMI high voltage customer demand data and system generating capacity for 24 hours were adopted to forecast summer peak load. The above-mentioned data analysis tool is used by EViews software to achieve, in order to verify the feasibility of the research framework. The study found that although its forecasting model accuracy is low only when mixed with temperature and high voltage demands. So, when mixed with high voltage demand data and system generating capacity for 24 hours to forecast peak load, the average error is ± 0.87% and in the majority of its energy sales forecasting model of average error is ±3%. This result can provide power company as future reference.

Coronary deaths during Midsummer festival in Finland: miseries of long, light nights

This paper examines whether the anomalous summer peak in deaths from coronary heart disease (CHD) in Finland could be attributed to adverse effects of the Midsummer festival and alcohol consumption during the festival. Daily deaths from CHD and alcohol poisoning in Finland, 1961–2014, that occurred during the 7 days centering on Midsummer Day were analysed in relation to deaths during 14 to 4 days before and 4 to 14 after Midsummer Day. Daily counts of deaths from CHD among persons aged 35–64 years were regressed on days around the Midsummer period by negative binomial regression. Mortality from CHD was highest on Midsummer Day (RR 1.25 (95% confidence interval 1.12–1.31), one day after the peak in deaths from alcohol poisonings. RR for CHD on Midsummer Day was particulary high (RR = 1.43; 1.09–1.86) in the 2000s, 30% of deaths being attributable to that day. In conclusion, the anomalous and prominent summer peak in deaths from CHD in Finland is an adverse consequence of the Midsummer festival. The most likely underlying reason is heavy alcohol consumption during the festival period, especially on Midsummer Eve. In the 2000s, one third of deaths from CHD on Midsummer Day are preventable.

Is there a place for bronchiolitis in the COVID-19 era? Lack of hospitalizations due to common respiratory viruses during the 2020 winter

It was recently reported that due to the COVID-19 pandemic, in the European winter 2020-2021, bronchiolitis had practically disappeared. But early reports from the southern hemisphere (Australia) raised concerns about a late spring / summer peak. After a full winter season and now ending the summer, we report that there was no peak of common respiratory viruses in late spring / summer in South America.

Seasonal patterns and spatial variation of Borrelia burgdorferi (sensu lato) infections in Ixodes ricinus in the Netherlands

Background The incidence of Lyme borreliosis varies over time and space through as yet incompletely understood mechanisms. In Europe, Lyme borreliosis is caused by infection with a Borrelia burgdorferi (s.l.) genospecies, which is primarily transmitted by a bite of Ixodes ricinus nymphs. The aim of this study was to investigate the spatial and temporal variation in nymphal infection prevalence of B. burgdorferi (s.l.) (NIP), density of questing nymphs (DON) and the resulting density of infected nymphs (DIN). Methods We investigated the infection rates in I. ricinus nymphs that were collected monthly between 2009 and 2016 in 12 locations in the Netherlands. Using generalized linear mixed models, we explored how the NIP, DON and DIN varied during the seasons, between years and between locations. We also determined the genospecies of the Borrelia infections and investigated whether the genospecies composition differed between locations. Results The overall NIP was 14.7%. A seasonal pattern in infection prevalence was observed, with higher estimated prevalences in the summer than in the spring and autumn. This, combined with higher nymphal densities in summer, resulted in a pronounced summer peak in the estimated DIN. Over the 7.5-year study period, a significant decrease in infection prevalence was found, as well as a significant increase in nymphal density. These two effects appear to cancel each other out; the density of infected nymphs, which is the product of NIP × DON, showed no significant trend over years. Mean infection prevalence (NIP, averaged over all years and all months) varied considerably between locations, ranging from 5 to 26%. Borrelia genospecies composition differed between locations: in some locations almost all infections consisted of B. afzelii, whereas other locations had more diverse genospecies compositions. Conclusion In the Netherlands, the summer peak in DIN is a result of peaks in both NIP and DON. No significant trend in DIN was observed over the years of the study, and variations in DIN between locations were mostly a result of the variation in DON. There were considerable differences in acarological risk between areas in terms of infection prevalence and densities of ticks as well as in Borrelia genospecies composition.

Regionalization of seasonal precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau and associated large-scale atmospheric systems

Precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has major societal impacts in South and East Asia, but its spatiotemporal variations are not well understood mainly because of the sparsely distributed in-situ observation sites. With help of the Global Precipitation Measurement satellite product IMERG and ERA5 reanalysis, distinct precipitation seasonality features over the TP were objectively classified using a self-organizing map algorithm fed with ten-day averaged precipitation from 2000 to 2019. The classification reveals three main precipitation regimes with distinct seasonality of precipitation: winter peak, centered at the western plateau; early summer peak, found on the eastern plateau; and late summer peak, mainly located on the southwestern plateau. On a year-to-year basis, the winter peak regime is relatively robust, while the early summer and late summer peak regimes tend to shift mainly between the central and northern TP, but are robust in the eastern and southwestern TP. A composite analysis shows that the winter peak regime experiences larger amounts of precipitation in winter and early spring when the westerly jet is anomalously strong to the north of the TP. Precipitation variations in the late summer peak regime are associated with intensity changes in the South Asian High and Indian summer monsoon. The precipitation in the early summer peak regime is correlated with the Indian summer monsoon together with anticyclonic circulation over the western North Pacific. The results provide a basic understanding of precipitation seasonality variations over the TP and associated large-scale conditions.