Muographic monitoring of hydrogeomorphic changes induced by post-eruptive lahars and erosion of Sakurajima volcano

Post-eruptive destabilization of volcanic edifices by gravity driven debris flows or erosion can catastrophically impact the landscapes, economies and human societies surrounding active volcanoes. In this work, we propose cosmic-ray muon imaging (muography) as a tool for the remote monitoring of hydrogeomorphic responses to volcano landscape disturbances. We conducted the muographic monitoring of Sakurajima volcano, Kyushu, Japan and measured continuous post-eruptive activity with over 30 lahars per year. The sensitive surface area of the Multi-Wire-Proportional-Chamber-based Muography Observation System was upgraded to 7.67 m$$^2$$ 2 ; this made it possible for the density of tephra within the crater region to be measured in 40 days. We observed the muon flux decrease from 10 to 40% through the different regions of the crater from September 2019 to October 2020 due to the continuous deposition of tephra fallouts. In spite of the long-term mass increase, significant mass decreases were also observed after the onsets of rain-triggered lahars that induced the erosion of sedimented tephra. The first muographic observation of these post-eruptive phenomena demonstrate that this passive imaging technique has the potential to contribute to the assessment of indirect volcanic hazards.

Muographic Monitoring of Hydrogeomorphic Changes Induced by Post-Eruptive Lahars and Erosion of Sakurajima Volcano

Post-eruptive destabilization of volcanic edifices by gravity driven debris flows or erosion can catastrophically impact the landscapes, economies and human societies surrounding active volcanoes. In this work, we propose muography as a tool for the remote monitoring of hydrogeomorphic responses to volcano landscape disturbances. We conducted the muographic monitoring of Sakurajima volcano, Kyushu, Japan and measured continuous post-eruptive activity with over 30 lahars per year. The sensitive surface area of the Multi-Wire-Proportional-Chamber-based Muography Observation System was upgraded to 7.67 m2 ; this made it possible for the density of tephra within the crater region to be measured in 40 days. We observed the muon flux decrease from 10 % to 40 % through the different regions of the crater from September 2019 to October 2020 due to the continuous deposition of tephra fallouts. In spite of the long-term mass increase, significant mass decreases were also observed after the onsets of rain-triggered lahars that induced the erosion of sedimented tephra. The first muographic observation of these post-eruptive phenomena demonstrate that this passive imaging technique has the potential to contribute to the assessment of indirect volcanic hazards.

Assessing the Multiple Pressure Source Hypothesis for the Sakurajima Volcano and Aira Caldera Magmatic System

<p>Sakurajima, located on the southern rim of Aira caldera, is one of the most active volcanoes in Japan. From long term deformation trends, the volcano is showing an increased risk of large-scale eruption, emphasizing the need to better understand the magmatic system.</p><p>Deformation modelling, primarily using the Mogi method, has dominated the geodetic assessment history of Sakurajima. These methods, however, contain limitations, such as the assumption of a homogeneous crust, and have therefore not accurately depicted the magmatic system. Numerical modelling techniques have reduced this limitation by accounting for subsurface heterogeneity.</p><p>Analytical modelling studies have suggested multiple magmatic sources beneath Aira caldera and Sakurajima volcano, whilst the only numerical study undertaken so far indicated a single source. Here, we test the multiple deformation source hypothesis, whilst also incorporating subsurface heterogeneity and topography, using Finite Element (FE) numerical modelling, and geodetic data from Sakurajima.</p><p>Using a full 3D model geometry for Sakurajima and Aira caldera, preliminary forward modelling suggests a second deformation source produces our best fit to the measured geodetic data. Optimum results indicate a shallow prolate source 7-10 km below sea level (bsl), in addition to a deeper oblate source at ~13 km bsl. These preliminary findings produce greater shallow storage depths than the previous analytical models (3-6 km) and ties in with the trans-crustal magmatic system hypothesis.</p><p>Increasing our understanding of the Sakurajima magmatic system will enable improved interpretations of geodetic data prior to eruptions and will inform models for a range of similar volcanoes world-wide.</p>

Tephra4D: A Python-Based Model for High-Resolution Tephra Transport and Deposition Simulations—Applications at Sakurajima Volcano, Japan

Vulcanian eruptions (short-lived explosions consisting of a rising thermal) occur daily in volcanoes around the world. Such small-scale eruptions represent a challenge in numerical modeling due to local-scale effects, such as the volcano’s topography impact on atmospheric circulation and near-vent plume dynamics, that need to be accounted for. In an effort to improve the applicability of Tephra2, a commonly-used advection-diffusion model, in the case of vulcanian eruptions, a number of key modifications were carried out: (i) the ability to solve the equations over bending plume, (ii) temporally-evolving three-dimensional meteorological fields, (iii) the replacement of the particle diameter distribution with observed particle terminal velocity distribution which provides a simple way to account for the settling velocity variation due to particle shape and density. We verified the advantage of our modified model (Tephra4D) in the tephra dispersion from vulcanian eruptions by comparing the calculations and disdrometer observations of tephra sedimentation from four eruptions at Sakurajima volcano, Japan. The simulations of the eruptions show that Tephra4D is useful for eruptions in which small-scale movement contributes significantly to ash transport mainly due to the consideration for orographic winds in advection.

High–Resolution Modeling of Airflows and Particle Deposition over Complex Terrain at Sakurajima Volcano

The realistic representation of atmospheric pollutant dispersal over areas of complex topography presents a challenging application for meteorological models. Here, we present results from high–resolution atmospheric modeling in order to gain insight into local processes that can affect ash transport and deposition. The nested Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with the finest resolution of 50 m was used to simulate atmospheric flow over the complex topography of Sakurajima volcano, Japan, for two volcanic eruption cases. The simulated airflow results were shown to compare well against surface observations. As a preliminary application, idealized trajectory modeling for the two cases revealed that accounting for local circulations can significantly impact volcanic ash deposition leading to a total fall velocity up to 2–3 times the particle’s terminal velocity depending on the size. Such a modification of the estimated particle settling velocity over areas with complex topography can be used to parametrize the impact of orographic effects in dispersal models, in order to improve fidelity.

Dike Inflation Process Beneath Sakurajima Volcano, Japan, During the Earthquake Swarm of August 15, 2015

Magma intrusion usually causes seismicity and deformation in the surrounding rock and often leads to eruptions. A swarm of volcano-tectonic (VT) earthquakes associated with rapid dike intrusion in hours occurred beneath Sakurajima volcano on August 15, 2015. We determined the hypocenters and focal mechanisms of the VT earthquake swarm. The distributions of pressure (P)- and tension (T)-axes of the azimuths of the mechanisms are also obtained. The results indicate spatiotemporal changes of the distributions of the hypocenters and P- and T-axes. The hypocenters are distributed at depths of 0.3–1 km and 7:00–10:30 JST, and are located at depths of 0.3–3 km and 10:30–12:00 during which the seismic activity is the largest. At 12:00–24:00, the hypocenters are distributed in shallow and deep clusters at depths of 0.2–1 km and 1.5–3.5 km, respectively. The dike induced rapid ground deformation and is located between the shallow and deep clusters. The strike and opening directions of the dike are parallel to the NE–SW and NW–SE directions, respectively, corresponding to the regional maximum and minimum compression stress. The T-axes of the shallow cluster are distributed parallel to the opening direction of the dike. The P-axes of the deep cluster exhibit a pattern corresponding to the NE–SW direction and the T-axes are distributed in the NW–SE direction. In contrast, a 90° rotated pattern of strike-slip faulting is also observed at the deep cluster at 12:00–24:00, where the P-axes are distributed in the NW–SE direction and the T-axes are distributed in the NE–SW direction. This reflects the change in the stress field due to the dike inflation during the earthquake generation, and indicates that the alteration of stress in the vicinity of the dike due to the dike inflation and VT earthquakes are induced by the differential stress exceeding the brittle fracture strength of the rock. Future seismic and deformation observations in volcanoes will verify whether the spatiotemporal changes of the hypocenters and focal mechanism shown by this study are unique features of rapid dike intrusion.