An Analysis of Precipitation Extreme Events Based on the SPI and EDI Values in the Free State Province, South Africa

Recognizing that, over the last several years, extreme rainfall has led to hazardous stress in humans, animals, plants, and even infrastructure, in the present study, we aimed to investigate the characteristics of droughts over the Free State (FS) Province of South Africa in order to determine the future likelihood of reoccurrences of precipitation extremes using the generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) and extreme frequency analysis (EFA). In this regard, daily rainfall datasets from nine South African weather service homogenous climatic districts, spanning from 1980 to 2019, were used to compute: (a) the total annual rainfall, (b) the Effective Drought Index (EDI), and (c) the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI). The SPI was calculated for 3, 6, and 12 month accumulation periods (hereafter SPI-3, SPI-6, and SPI-12, respectively). The trend analysis results of the EDI and SPI-3, -6, and -12 showed that the Free State Province is generally negative, illustrating persistent drought. An analysis of the GEV parameters across the EDI and SPI-3, -6, and -12 values illustrated that the location, scale, and shape parameters exhibited a noticeable spatial variability across the Free State Province with the location parameter largely negative, the scale parameter largely positive, while the shape parameter pointed to an inherent Type III (Weibull) GEV distribution. In addition, the return levels for the drought/wet duration and severity of the EDI and SPI-3, -6, and -12 values generally showed increasing patterns across the corresponding return periods; the spatial contrasts were only noticeable in the return levels derived from the wet/drought duration and severity derived from SPI-3, -6, and -12 values (and not in the EDI). Further, the EFA results pointed to a noticeable spatial contrast in the return periods derived from the EDI and SPI-3, -6, and -12 values for each of the extreme precipitation categories: moderately wet, severely wet, extremely wet to moderately dry, and severely dry. Over four decades, the FS Province has generally experienced a suite of extreme precipitation categories ranging from moderately wet, severely wet, extremely wet to moderately dry, severely dry, and extremely dry conditions. Overall, the present study contributes towards implementation of effective drought early warning systems and can be used to enhance drought related policy and decision making in support of water resource management and planning in the FS Province.

Seed Dispersal by Frugivores and Germination Success of the Invasive Alien Shrub Pyracantha Angustifolia in the Eastern Free State Province, South Africa

Invasive alien plants can use animal-plant interactions to increase their invasiveness. This study investigated the role of frugivorous birds in seed dispersal and germination of the alien plant Pyracantha angustifolia (Rosaceae) in South African high elevation grasslands. We monitored which bird species fed on the fruit of the invasive P. angustifolia in some farms in the Eastern Free State Province using camera-traps and direct surveillance. Nine bird species visited P. angustifolia shrubs to perch or feed on fruits, but only one bird (Speckled Mousebird) fed on the fruits during timed observations. To assess the effect of ingestion by avian frugivores on P. angustifolia germination, P. angustifolia fruits were fed to captive Cape White-eyes (Zosterops virens), Dark-capped Bulbuls (Pycnonotus tricolor), Purple-crested Turacos (Gallirex porphyreolophus), Red-winged Starlings (Onychognathus morio) and Speckled Mousebirds (Colius striatus). Seeds collected from bird excreta, whole fruits, and depulped fruits were grown under greenhouse conditions and germination rates recorded. All captive bird species, except for Cape White-eyes, ingested the seeds; Cape White-eyes only fed on fruit pulp that they had manually removed. Bird species with relatively larger body mass had longer seed retention times compared with the smaller bird species. Germination success of both depulped and ingested P. angustifolia seeds was high (> 80%) and that of whole fruits low (7%). Ingestion by the four avian frugivore species did not affect germination rate and success; instead, the birds facilitate the spread and germination of seeds by removing the fruit pulp and spreading the seed away from the parent shrubs.

Addressing the challenge of over-crowdedness in English First Additional Language (EFAL) classrooms

This paper lends itself to extenuating the impact of over-crowdedness in the intermediate phase EFAL classrooms. An in-depth investigation into the causes of poor performance in the intermediate phase EFAL classrooms revealed over-crowdedness as one of the main possible causes. The pedagogical impediments that result from this phenomenon affect the intermediate phase EFL teachers more due to the curriculum requirements of this subject. The study was conducted in the Motheo Education District, in the Free State Province. The data was collected qualitatively, through the use of a group interview, semi-structured interviews and observations. The interviews focused on both well-performing and poor performing schools, while the observations focused on the well-performing schools. The data, which was analysed thematically, revealed the following practices that can benefit EFAL teachers working in overcrowded intermediate phase classrooms: effective planning and preparation, the integration of skills, constructive teaching, explicit instruction, a selective approach, notetaking and the process approach. The study was premised on the theory of hope, as the insights from well-performing schools expound the importance of not losing hope and remaining motivated to mitigate contextual factors.

Using Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 Time Series for Slangbos Mapping in the Free State Province, South Africa

Increasing woody cover and overgrazing in semi-arid ecosystems are known to be the major factors driving land degradation. This study focuses on mapping the distribution of the slangbos shrub (Seriphium plumosum) in a test region in the Free State Province of South Africa. The goal of this study is to monitor the slangbos encroachment on cultivated land by synergistically combining Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) (Sentinel-1) and optical (Sentinel-2) Earth observation information. Both optical and radar satellite data are sensitive to different vegetation properties and surface scattering or reflection mechanisms caused by the specific sensor characteristics. We used a supervised random forest classification to predict slangbos encroachment for each individual crop year between 2015 and 2020. Training data were derived based on expert knowledge and in situ information from the Department of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development (DALRRD). We found that the Sentinel-1 VH (cross-polarization) and Sentinel-2 SAVI (Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index) time series information have the highest importance for the random forest classifier among all input parameters. The modelling results confirm the in situ observations that pastures are most affected by slangbos encroachment. The estimation of the model accuracy was accomplished via spatial cross-validation (SpCV) and resulted in a classification precision of around 80% for the slangbos class within each time step.