First indication of the effect of COVID-19 vaccinations on the course of the outbreak in Israel

Concomitantly with rolling out its rapid COVID-19 vaccine program, Israel is experiencing its third, and so far largest, surge in morbidity. We aimed to estimate whether the high vaccine coverage among individuals aged over 60 years old creates an observable change in disease dynamics. Using observed and simulated data, we suggest that the shape of the outbreak as measured by daily new moderate and severe cases, and in particular of patients aged over 60, has changed because of vaccination, bringing the decline in new moderate and severe cases earlier than expected, by about a week. Our analyses is consistent with the assumption that vaccination lead to higher than 50% protection in preventing clinical disease and with at least some effectiveness in blocking transmission of elderly population, and supports the importance of prioritizing vulnerable population. This is the first indication of the effectivity of COVID-19 vaccine in changing the course of an ongoing pandemic outbreak.One Sentence SummaryWe show, by data analysis and modelling of the dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic in Israel, that the current nationwide outbreak, that had up to 0.1% of the population confirmed daily, is clearly affected by the vaccination program, that reached a coverage of more than 80% among people ≥ 60 years old.

Elements and Opposites in Heraclitus

In this paper, I discuss the various characteristics of Heraclitus’ theory of elemental transformation that can reasonably be gleaned from the extant fragments. While there has been some recent work on Heraclitus’ theory of elemental transformation, there has been a lack of discussion concerning the properties of the particular elements and their relation to the cardinal opposites. In this paper I argue that fragment B126 (“Cold things warm up, warm things cool off; wet things dry up and dry things moisten”) is an explanandum for Heraclitus. It is meant to invoke certain questions in his readers’ minds: How is it that cold things come to hold an opposing property (i. e. “hot”)? What type of change occurs such that a wet thing can become dry? How is it that things hold these properties in the first place? I argue that Heraclitus’ theory of elemental transformation (B31, B36 and B76) is the explanans for B126 and is capable of answering these questions. That is, the observable change evident in B126 is explained by a set of transformations between elemental stuffs. Because of this connection between B126 and his theory of elements, Heraclitus’ theory of elemental transformation is rightly understood as a ‘unity of opposites’ thesis. However, I argue that the transformation of opposites can only be one opposites thesis among several opposites theses.

Learning and Conditioning in Chronic Pain

This chapter highlights the ways that individuals learn to adapt to changes due to painful experiences. Learning is the observable change in behavior due to events in the internal and external environment, and it includes non-associative (habituation and sensitization) and associative learning (Pavlovian and operant conditioning). Once acquired, new knowledge representations remain stored in memory and may generalize to perceptually or functionally similar events. Moreover, these processes are not just a consequence of pain; they may also modulate the perception of pain. In contrast to the rapid acquisition of learned responses, their extinction is slow, fragile, and context-dependent, and it only occurs through inhibitory processes. The chapter reviews features of associative forms of learning in humans that contribute to pain, pain-related distress, and disability. It concludes with a discussion of promising future directions.

Formation and development of supraglacial lakes in the percolation zone of the Greenland ice sheet

We examine repeat surface altimetry and radio echo observations of two supraglacial lakes in the percolation zone of the Greenland ice sheet to investigate the changes in firn conditions leading to lake formation and implications for meltwater storage within firn. Both lakes formed in 2011, when an anomalously high melt season was followed by low winter accumulation, resulting in reduced infiltration and storage in the near surface. The lakes expanded during the 2012 record melt season and retained liquid meltwater through the following winter. The lakes then contracted, with one lake slowly draining and refreezing and another rapidly draining to the subsurface. The lack of observable change in firn conditions surrounding the lakes indicates increased run-off in the near surface firn, likely along low-permeability ice layers formed during the previous melt seasons. This implies a reduced ability of the firn to absorb increased meltwater.

The Effect of Changes in Decision Aid Bias on Learning: Evidence of Functional Fixation

ABSTRACT Building on prior accounting research (Luft and Shields 2001; Dearman and Shields 2005), this study examines the effects of observable decision aid bias on decision aid agreement and task performance accuracy. Using a behavioral experiment, this study manipulates decision aid bias to assess the impact of a change in the level of decision aid bias on the degree to which decision makers' decisions agree with decision aid suggestions (i.e., decision aid agreement) and to which they learn to effectively adjust their decisions (i.e., task performance accuracy). Results indicate that learning subsequent to an observable change in decision aid bias is diminished, consistent with fixation on the previous aid's bias. JEL Classifications: D8; D83; M4

Behaviorism and Developments in Instructional Design and Technology

The theory of behaviorism concentrates on the study of overt behaviors that can be observed and measured (Good & Brophy, 1990). In general, the behavior theorists view the mind as a “black box” in the sense that response to stimulus can be observed quantitatively, ignoring the possibility of thought processes occurring in the mind. Behaviorists believe that learning takes place as the result of a response that follows on a specific stimulus. By repeating the S-R (stimulus-response) cycle, the organism (may it be an animal or human) is conditioned into repeating the response whenever the same stimulus is present. The behavioral emphasis on breaking down complex tasks, such as learning to read, into subskills that are taught separately, has a powerful influence on instructional design. Behaviors can be modified, and learning is measured by observable change in behavior. The behavior theorists emphasize the need of objectivity, which leads to great accentuation of statistical and mathematical analysis.

Behaviorism and Developments in Instructional Design and Technology

The theory of behaviorism concentrates on the study of overt behaviors that can be observed and measured (Good & Brophy, 1990). In general, the behavior theorists view the mind as a “black box” in the sense that response to stimulus can be observed quantitatively, ignoring the possibility of thought processes occurring in the mind. Behaviorists believe that learning takes place as the result of a response that follows on a specific stimulus. By repeating the S-R (stimulus-response) cycle, the organism (may it be an animal or human) is conditioned into repeating the response whenever the same stimulus is present. The behavioral emphasis on breaking down complex tasks, such as learning to read, into subskills that are taught separately, has a powerful influence on instructional design. Behaviors can be modified, and learning is measured by observable change in behavior. The behavior theorists emphasize the need of objectivity, which leads to great accentuation of statistical and mathematical analysis.

Benchmarks of Change: Assessing Essential School Restructuring Efforts

This study assesses the process of changing in four schools at the midpoint of a 5-year essential schools restructuring effort. Using cross-case analyses, organizational change processes are assessed using four benchmarks of change established by the Coalition of Essential Schools: substantial agreement, observable change, all-school participation, and systemic leadership. Factors affecting the change processes are identified. Conclusions about school restructuring-change processes are discussed in terms of the criteria established by the Coalition and the literature on change.

How Do Clients Benefit from Snoezelen? An Exploratory Study

An exploratory study involved observation of four clients of the Botleys Park Sensory/Snoezelen Environment (SSE) in both the SSE and the villa. The clients were not known to the observer and were selected at random. The aim of the study was to explore the hypothesis that a designed change in care will give rise to an observable change in the behaviour of the recipients of that care. The results indicated that there was an apparent difference in the behaviour of the four clients observed between the villa and the SSE. It was concluded that although the study did not allow proof of the hypothesis, it did indicate that there was an observable change in behaviour, which provided evidence that the hypothesis could withstand a design that would allow the hypothesis to be tested.

Selective Oxidation Of Hydrocarbons By Cobaltsubstituted Aluminophosphate Molecular Sieves

ABSTRACTThe Co(III) form of cobalt-substituted aluminophosphate molecular sieves, Co(III)-APOs, was found to be a selective oxidant for a variety of organic and inorganic compounds. At relatively low temperatures (20 to 100°C), alcohols are converted to aldehydes and ketones, benzene becomes a dimer radical cation, amines are transformed to imines, and NO is oxidized to NO+. There is also evidence that Co(III)APOs activate the C-H bonds of methane at higher temperatures (400–500°C). Accompanying all these reactions is a clearly observable change of color from the yellow of the Co(III) form to the blue of the Co(II) form.