Since the publication of the first comprehensive Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) study—known as WASH-1400—in the US, PSA has developed into an effective and systematic method of identifying hazards, and evaluating and prioritizing the risks in nuclear facilities [...]
The existing safety analysis methods for the assessment of the aerostatic stability of long-span symmetry cable-stayed bridges have difficulties in meeting the requirements of engineering applications. Based on the finite element method and the inverse reliability theory, an approach for the probabilistic safety analysis of the aerostatic instability of long-span symmetry cable-stayed bridges is proposed here. The probabilistic safety factor of aerostatic instability of long-span symmetry cable-stayed bridges was estimated using the proposed method, with Sutong Bridge as an example. The probabilistic safety factors for the aerostatic instability of Sutong Bridge were calculated using the finite element inverse reliability method, based on the FORM approach. The influences of the mean value and the coefficient of variation of random variables, as well as the iterative step length of finite difference, on the probabilistic safety factors of aerostatic instability of Sutong Bridge were analyzed. The results indicated that it is necessary to consider the uncertainties of random variables in probabilistic safety factor assessments of aerostatic instability in cable-stayed bridges using the proposed method, which could be recommended for the assessment of safety factors involved in the aerostatic instability of long-span symmetry cable-stayed bridges. The randomness of the parameters had an important influence on the probabilistic safety factor of the aerostatic stability of Sutong Bridge. Neglecting the randomness of these parameters may result in instability of the structure.
In the first place the discusser would like to congratulate Dr. Bačkalov with his paper, in which he assesses the new Belgian safety regulations for estuary vessels by means of a non-linear approach taking account the effect of a combination of beam waves and unsteady beam wind. The results presented are based on a solid, scientific background, and the author’s approach as published in former papers can be considered as the base of a promising methodology for evaluating the stability and safety of a vessel in waves and wind. As the discusser has supported the Belgian federal authorities in defining the methodology and formulating the present regulations, it is a pleasure to learn that the implementation of the latter is considered as a significant step in the general improvement of ship safety regulations.