贝叶斯思维儿童读本

[This is a Chinese translation of "Bayesian Thinking for Toddlers"] 贝叶斯思维很容易，孩子们也一直都在使用它。它的原理是从经验中 学习：预测效果好的假设会得到更多支持，而预测效果差的假设会得 到更少的支持。 例如，如果假设A为“我的父母在早上6点通常在睡觉”，而假设B为“我的父母在早上6点通常已经醒来”。之后，如果孩子在 早上6点看到父母仍在熟睡，那这个观察就会增加假设A的可信度，并 降低假设B的可信度。就这么简单！对贝叶斯已有了解的读者可能会发现，这个恐龙故事暗含了诸如奥卡 姆剃刀(Ockham’s razor)、连贯的知识更新、概率代表信念的合理程 度之类的概念。 统计学家们可能会注意到菲尔·戴维德先性原则(Phil Dawid’s prequential principle)的实践应⽤。孩子们可能只想看恐 龙。

There is no reason to replace the Razor with the Laser

In recent times it has become common to encounter philosophers who recommend the replacement of one principle concerning theory choice, Ockham’s Razor, with another: the Laser. Whilst the Razor tells us not to multiply entities beyond necessity, the Laser tells us only to avoid multiplying fundamental entities beyond necessity. There appear to be seven arguments in the literature for the Laser. They divide into three categories: arguments from the nature of non-fundamentality attempt to motivate the Laser by appeal to various observations about what it is to be non-fundamental; arguments from cases describe hypothetical or actual cases, and allege that only the Laser accords with our intuitive judgements about them; and arguments from analogy claim that ontological parsimony is analogous to conceptual economy, and that this analogy recommends the Laser. I provide novel responses to each of the extant arguments for the Laser, and conclude that there is currently no good reason for replacing the Razor with the Laser.

Recurrent hemoperitoneum due to aneurysm of the left hepatic artery. Even "Ockham's razor" can fail

The infection of Klebsiella variicola constituted a high morbility and mortality disease in the most of its guest. It is tended to be associated with a septic shock which required an intensive treatment most of the times. The pathological mechanisms are not well-defined. A correlation has been made between this clinical case and one likely pathogenicity factor, which could explain these rates. We present the case of a male patient who presented to the emergency department with a septic shock. The patient eventually developed an hemoperitoneum by the aneurysm of the left hepatic artery which is very unusual.

The Inherent Logic in the Idea of the Multiverse

The idea of the multiverse, likely difficult to prove in traditional scientific ways, may be bolstered by two arguments from the field of logic. This article, contextualized by the metaphorical, non-logical approaches to the multiverse and situating itself within the history of astronomy, explicates these two arguments from logic. The first argument relates to the implicit illogical vanity in the assumption that our presently-known universe is special. In other words, it may be somewhat logical to embrace the history of deanthropomorphism more fully in the light of the Big Bang and the theory of cosmic inflation. The second argument suggests resolution to the long-standing philosophical and logical mysteries associated with the anthropic principle, as well as the attendant use of Ockham’s razor as a logical tool. The problem of evidence and falsifiability is briefly implicated, as well as some consequences for apologetics.