Real-Time Tsunami Data Assimilation of S-Net Pressure Gauge Records during the 2016 Fukushima Earthquake

The 2016 Fukushima earthquake (M 7.4) generated a moderate tsunami, which was recorded by the offshore pressure gauges of the Seafloor Observation Network for Earthquakes and Tsunamis (S-net). We used 28 S-net pressure gauge records for tsunami data assimilation and forecasted the tsunami waveforms at four tide gauges on the Sanriku coast. The S-net raw records were processed using two different methods. In the first method, we removed the tidal components by polynomial fitting and applied a low-pass filter. In the second method, we used a real-time tsunami detection algorithm based on ensemble empirical mode decomposition to extract the tsunami signals, imitating real-time operations for tsunami early warning. The forecast accuracy scores of the two detection methods are 60% and 74%, respectively, for a time window of 35 min, but they improve to 89% and 94% if we neglect the stations with imperfect modeling or insufficient offshore observations. Hence, the tsunami data assimilation approach can be put into practice with the help of the real-time tsunami detection algorithm.

Application of particle swarm optimization in optimal placement of tsunami sensors

Rapid detection and early warning systems demonstrate crucial significance in tsunami risk reduction measures. So far, several tsunami observation networks have been deployed in tsunamigenic regions to issue effective local response. However, guidance on where to station these sensors are limited. In this article, we address the problem of determining the placement of tsunami sensors with the least possible tsunami detection time. We use the solutions of the 2D nonlinear shallow water equations to compute the wave travel time. The optimization problem is solved by implementing the particle swarm optimization algorithm. We apply our model to a simple test problem with varying depths. We also use our proposed method to determine the placement of sensors for early tsunami detection in Cotabato Trench, Philippines.

Numerical and Probabilistic Study on the Optimal Region for Tsunami Detection Instrument Deployment in the Eastern Sea of Korea

A tsunami is a significant coastal hazard that causes destructive damage to coastal cities in the world. Besides, tsunamis, generated on the west coast of Japan, damaged coastal cities on the east coast of Korea in 1983 and 1993. In recent years, there has been increasing interest in the potential tsunami zone near the west coast of Japan. Therefore, it is important to have tsunami observation instruments in proper locations for tsunami detection and warning aspect. This study proposes the optimal region for offshore tsunami observation instrument deployment under the limited condition that the tsunami source in out of the territorial sea by investigating areas with the highest tsunami detection probability along with maximum evacuation time and bottom slope. Using the Cornell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami (COMCOT) numerical model and a probabilistic approach, this study suggests the optimal region for offshore tsunami detection instrument deployment to be the northeast area of Ulleung-do Island in the eastern sea of Korea.

A Method of Real-Time Tsunami Detection Using Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition

We propose a method of real-time tsunami detection using ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD). EEMD decomposes the time series into a set of intrinsic mode functions adaptively. The tsunami signals of ocean-bottom pressure gauges (OBPGs) are automatically separated from the tidal signals, seismic signals, as well as background noise. Unlike the traditional tsunami detection methods, our algorithm does not need to make a prediction of tides. The application to the actual data of cabled OBPGs off the Tokohu coast shows that it successfully detects the tsunami from the 2016 Fukushima earthquake (M 7.4). The method was also applied to the extremely large tsunami from the 2011 Tohoku earthquake (M 9.0) and extremely small tsunami from the 1998 Sanriku earthquake (M 6.4). The algorithm detected the former huge tsunami that caused devastating damage, whereas it did not detect the latter microtsunami, which was not noticed on the coast. The algorithm was also tested for month-long OBPG data and caused no false alarm. Therefore, the algorithm is very useful for a tsunami early warning system, as it does not require any earthquake information to detect the tsunamis. It detects the tsunami with a short-time delay and characterizes the tsunami amplitudes accurately.

An update of proposed Sri Lanka warning system for east and west coast tsunamis

Purpose Based on the existing provisions/operations of tsunami warning in the Indian Ocean, authors observed that detection as well as arrival time estimations of regional tsunami service providers (RTSPs) could be improved. In particular, the detection mechanisms have been eccentrically focussed on Sunda and Makran tsunamis, although tsunamis from Carlsberg ridge and Chagos archipelago could generate devastating tsunamis for which inadequate provisions exist for detection and arrival time/wave height estimation. RTSPs resort to assess estimated arrival time/wave heights from a scenario-based, pre-simulated database. These estimations in terms of Sri Lanka have been found inconsistent. In addition, current warning mechanism poorly manages non-seismic tsunamis. Thus, the purpose of this study is to investigate these drawbacks and attempt to carve out a series of suggestions to improve them. Design/methodology/approach The work initiated with data retrieved from global earthquake and tsunami databases, followed by an estimation of probabilities of tsunamis in the Indian Ocean with particular emphasis on Carlsberg and Chagos tsunamis. Second, probabilities of tsunami detection in each sub-region have been estimated with the use of available tide gauge and tsunami buoy data. Third, the difficulties in tsunami detection in the Indian Ocean are critically assessed with case studies, followed by recommendations to improve the detection and warning. Findings Probabilistic estimates show that given the occurrence of a significant earthquake, both Makran and Carlsberg/Chagos regions possess higher probabilities to harbour a tsunami than the Sunda subduction zone. Meanwhile, reliability figures of tsunami buoys have been declined from 79-92 to 68-91 per cent over the past eight years. In addition, a Chagos tsunami is left to be detected by only one tide gauge prior to it reaching Sri Lankan coasts. Research limitations/implications The study uses an averaged tsunami speed of 882 km/h based on 2004 Asian tsunami. However, using exact bathymetric data, Tsunamis could be simulated to derive speeds and arrival times more accurately. Yet, such refinements do not change the main derivations and conclusions of this study. Practical implications Tsunami detection and warning in the Indian Ocean region have shown room for improvement, based on the inadequate detection levels for Carlesberg and Chagos tsunamis, and inconsistent warnings of regional tsunami service providers. The authors attempted to remedy these drawbacks by proposing a series of suggestions, including a deployment of a new tsunami buoy south of Maldives, revival of offline buoys, real-time tsunami simulations and a strategy to deal with landslide tsunamis, etc. Social implications Indian Ocean is prone to mega tsunamis as witnessed in 2004. However, more than 50 per cent of people in the Indian Ocean rim countries dwell near the coast. This is verified with deaths of 227,898 people in 14 countries during the 2004 tsunami event. Thus, it is of paramount importance that sufficient detection levels are maintained throughout the Indian Ocean without being overly biased towards Sunda tsunamis. With respect to Sri Lanka, Makran, Carlesberg or Chagos tsunamis could directly hit the most populated west coast and bring about far worse repercussions than a Sunda tsunami. Originality/value This is the first instance where the threats from Carlesberg and Chagos tsunamis to Sri Lanka are discussed, probabilities of tsunamis are quantified and their detection levels assessed. In addition, reliability levels of tsunami buoys and tide gauges in the Indian Ocean are recomputed after eight years to discover that there is a drop in reliability of the buoy data. The work also proposes a unique approach to handle inconsistencies in the bulletins of regional tsunami service providers, and to uphold and improve dwindling interest on tsunami buoys.