Reconstructing an Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation Index from a Pacific Basin–Wide Collection of Ice Core Records

Using an assemblage of four ice cores collected around the Pacific basin, one of the first basinwide histories of Pacific climate variability has been created. This ice core–derived index of the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) incorporates ice core records from South America, the Himalayas, the Antarctic Peninsula, and northwestern North America. The reconstructed IPO is annually resolved and dates to 1450 CE. The IPO index compares well with observations during the instrumental period and with paleo-proxy assimilated datasets throughout the entire record, which indicates a robust and temporally stationary IPO signal for the last ~550 years. Paleoclimate reconstructions from the tropical Pacific region vary greatly during the Little Ice Age (LIA), although the reconstructed IPO index in this study suggests that the LIA was primarily defined by a weak, negative IPO phase and hence more La Niña–like conditions. Although the mean state of the tropical Pacific Ocean during the LIA remains uncertain, the reconstructed IPO reveals some interesting dynamical relationships with the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). In the current warm period, a positive (negative) IPO coincides with an expansion (contraction) of the seasonal latitudinal range of the ITCZ. This relationship is not stationary, however, and is virtually absent throughout the LIA, suggesting that external forcing, such as that from volcanoes and/or reduced solar irradiance, could be driving either the ITCZ shifts or the climate dominating the ice core sites used in the IPO reconstruction.

Improving temperature reconstructions from ice-core water-isotope records

Oxygen and hydrogen isotope ratios in polar precipitation are widely used as proxies for local temperature. Used in combination, oxygen and hydrogen isotope ratios also provide information on sea surface temperature at the oceanic moisture source locations where polar precipitation originates. Temperature reconstructions obtained from ice core records generally rely on linear approximations of the relationships among local temperature, source temperature and water-isotope values. However, there are important nonlinearities that significantly affect such reconstructions, particularly for source-region temperatures. Here, we describe a temperature reconstruction method that accounts for these nonlinearities. We provide new reconstructions of absolute surface temperature, condensation temperature, and source-region evaporation temperature for all long Antarctic ice-core records for which the necessary data are available. We also provide thorough uncertainty estimates on all temperature histories. Our reconstructions constrain the pattern and magnitude of polar amplification in the past and reveal asymmetries in the temperature histories of East and West Antarctica.

Tephra in the Greenland Ice cores: Insights into Icelandic volcano-climate impacts

<p>Volcanic eruptions are considered as one of the primary natural drivers for changes in the global climate system and understanding the impact of past eruptions on the climate is integral to adopt appropriate responses towards future volcanic eruptions.</p><p>The Greenland ice core records are dominated by Icelandic eruptions, with several volcanic systems (Katla, Hekla, Bárðarbunga-Veiðivötn and Grimsvötn) being highly active throughout the Holocene. A notable period of increased Icelandic volcanic activity occurred between 500-1250 AD and coincided with climatic changes in the North Atlantic region which may have facilitated the Viking settlement of Greenland and Iceland. However, a number of these volcanic events are poorly constrained (duration and magnitude). Consequently, the Greenland ice cores offer the opportunity to reliably reconstruct past Icelandic volcanism (duration, magnitude and frequency) due to their high-resolution, the proximity of Iceland to Greenland and subsequent increased likelihood of volcanic fallout deposits (tephra particles and sulphur aerosols) being preserved. However, both the high frequency of eruptions between 500-1250 AD and the geochemical similarity of Iceland’s volcanic centres present challenges in making the required robust geochemical correlations between the source volcano and the ice core records and ultimately reliably assessing the climatic-societal impacts of these eruptions.</p><p>To address this, we use two Greenland ice core records (TUNU2013 and B19) and undertake geochemical analysis on tephra from the volcanic events in the selected time window which have been detected and sampled using novel techniques (insoluble particle peaks and sulphur acidity peaks). Further geochemical analysis of proximal material enables robust correlations to be made between the events in the ice core records and their volcanic centres. The high-resolution of these polar archives provides a precise age for the event and when utilised alongside other proxies (i.e. sulphur aerosols), both the duration and magnitude of these eruptions can be constrained, and the climatic-societal impacts of these eruptions reliably assessed.</p>

Comparison of isotopic signatures in ice core and speleothem records to an isotope enabled climate model simulation for the last millennium

<div> <div> <div> <p>Stable water isotope ratios (δ18O) measured in e.g. ice-cores or speleothems have long been established as temperature proxies and are used to reconstruct past climate variability but still require more quantification on spatial and temporal scales. The high resolution ice-core archives are mainly found in polar and alpine regions, whereas the speleothem records mostly grow in caves in low to mid-latitudes. To bridge between the archives, models are needed to compare the climate variability stored in both ice-cores and speleothems, which will help to evaluate future projections of climate variability.</p> <p>Here, we compare a transient isotope enabled simulation from the Hadley Center Climate Model version 3 (iHadCM3) [1, 2] to polar ice-core records from the iso2k database [3] for the last millennium (LM, 850-1850 CE). We analyze time-averaged isotope ratios and their variability on decadal to centennial timescales to systematically evaluate the offsets and correlation patterns between simulated and recorded isotopes to specific climatic drivers. For better comparability between speleothem and ice core-archives, we also include non-polar ice core records, as well as monitored precipitation δ18O from a global database.</p> <p>We find the time-averaged δ18O offsets between the simulation and ice-core records to be fairly small for most of the polar ice-core sites, indicating a low simulation climate offset.<br>As expected, we find the simulated δ18O variability to be higher in the polar regions of ice-core locations, compared to the simulated variability at speleothem cave locations. Recorded δ18O variability is also generally higher as stored in ice-cores, compared to that stored in speleothems. Both speleothems and ice-core records show damping effects on decadal time scales, which can in part be attributed to the temporal resolution of the individual records. This comparison of different proxy archives to isotope-enabled GCM output shows a promising way to evaluate the model’s capability to resolve δ18O variability.</p> <div> <div> <div> <p>[1]  Bühler, J. C. et al. Comparison of the oxygen isotope signatures in speleothem records and iHadCM3 model simulations for the last millennium. Climate of the Past: Discussions 1–30 (2020).</p> <p>[2]  Tindall, J. C., Valdes, P. J. & Sime, L. C. Stable water isotopes in HadCM3: Isotopic signature of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the tropical amount effect. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 114, 1–12 (2009).</p> <p>[3] Konecky, B. L. et al. The Iso2k database: A global compilation of paleo-δ18O and δ2H records to aid understanding of Common Era climate. Earth System Science Data 12, 2261–2288 (2020).</p> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div> </div>

Millennial-timescale reconstruction of Upper Pleistocene temperature and precipitation derived from earthworm calcite granules in western European loess profiles

<p>Loess-Palaeosol Sequences (LPS) represent the most extensive Quaternary terrestrial archives. Although researchers have long been able to identify short-lived climatic changes in LPS through stratigraphy, until recently we have lacked the tools to 1) identify how continuous loess archives may be, and to what extent short-lived, millennial-timescale climatic events were recorded in loess sediments, and to 2) quantitatively reconstruct past climate parameters from loess proxies. Stratigraphically, the impact of short-lived climatic cycles can be observed in the form of primary loess deposits reflecting cold stadial conditions, intercalated with arctic and boreal brown soils and tundra gley horizons indicating milder interstadials. Short-term establishment and subsequent degradation of an active permafrost layer can also be identified in temperate-latitude loess such as that found in the Rhine Valley of central-western Europe. Recently developed proxy methods can now be used to quantify climatic parameters such as temperature and precipitation in these regions <sup>1,2</sup>. Associated with radiocarbon dating, these new approaches will vastly improve our understanding of continental environmental changes through the Upper Pleistocene, which can now be compared at high temporal resolution with marine and ice core records. In particular, the quantity and stable isotope ratios of crystalline calcite granules (> 0.8 mm), secreted by earthworms (<em>Lumbricus sp.</em>)  at the soil surface, preserve climate information contemporaneous with deposition of the loess sediment.</p><p>In this study, we assess the utility of the earthworm calcite granules (ECG) approach by reconstructing temperature and precipitation at high resolution between 50 and 15 ka from two temporally overlapping loess sequences, Schwalbenberg and Nussloch, situated approximately 200 km apart in the German Rhine Valley. ECG counts down the two profiles reveal millennial-timescale climatic variations; high ECG concentrations associated with pedogenetic horizons suggest milder climatic with increasing biological activity and vegetation cover. Using empirical equations based on 1) observations of modern earthworm response to temperature and 2) the linear relationship between ∆<sup>13</sup>C values of plants and precipitation, the stable oxygen and carbon isotope compositions from ECGs can be used as direct proxies for warm season temperature and annual soil moisture, respectively. We embed our climate reconstructions within Bayesian age models based on radiocarbon dating of ECG in order to establish precise correlations between the two sequences and with other climatic archives. We find that ECGs provide valuable proxies able to meaningfully quantify palaeoclimate variations from terrestrial deposits over millennial timescales. Our results further show periods of quasi-simultaneous climatic change in the Northern Hemisphere, closely linking the climatic signatures recorded in the Upper Pleistocene of Schwalbenberg and Nussloch to the Greenland ice core records.</p><p>References: </p><p>1. Prud’homme, C. <em>et al.</em> Palaeotemperature reconstruction during the Last Glacial from δ<sup>18</sup>O of earthworm calcite granules from Nussloch loess sequence, Germany. <em>Earth Planet. Sci. Lett.</em> <strong>442</strong>, 13–20 (2016).</p><p>2. Prud’homme, C. <em>et al.</em> δ<sup> 13</sup>C signal of earthworm calcite granules: a new proxy for palaeoprecipitation reconstructions during the Last Glacial in Western Europe. <em>Quat. Sci. Rev.</em> <strong>179</strong>, 158–166 (2018).</p>

A statistical model for dating uncertainties in Greenland ice core records

<p>Most layer-counting based paleoclimate proxy records have non-negligible uncertainties that arise from both the proxy measurement and the dating processes. Proper knowledge of the dating uncertainties in paleoclimatic ice core records is important for a rigorous propagation to further analyses; for example for identification and dating of stadial-interstadial transitions during glacial intervals, for model-data comparisons in general, or to provide a complete uncertainty quantification of early warning signals. We develop a statistical model that incorporates the dating uncertainties of the Greenland Ice Core Chronology 2005 (GICC05), which includes the uncertainty associated with layer counting. We express the number of layers per depth interval as the sum of a structural component that represents both underlying physical processes and biases in layer counting, described by a linear regression model, and a noise component that represents the internal variation of the underlying physical processes, as well as residual counting errors. We find the residual components to be described well by a Gaussian white noise process that appear to be largely uncorrelated, allowing us to represent the dating uncertainties using a multivariate Gaussian process. This means that we can easily produce simulations as well as incorporate tie-points from other proxy records to match the GICC05 time scale to other chronologies. Moreover, this multivariate Gaussian process exhibits Markov properties which grants a substantial gain in computational efficiency.</p>

A millennium-long 'Blue Ring' chronology from Bristlecone Pine as a record of volcanic forcing on climate

<p>'Blue Rings' (BRs) are distinct wood anatomical anomalies recently discovered in several tree species. Previous studies connect their occurrence to lower than normal temperatures during the cell wall lignification phase of xylogenesis. Cell wall lignification usually continues after radial growth is completed, after the growth season. Therefore, systematic analysis of blue rings can add another level of time resolution to dendroclimatic studies. Additionally, BRs are more sensitive temperature recorders than frost rings which require freezing temperatures to form. We  present a continuous chronology of blue rings in North American bristlecone pine covering the last millennium and their connections to volcanic eruptions known both from historic and ice core records. Most recorded BR years coincide with cooling following large volcanic eruptions. The three most prominent events during the last 1000 years, with the highest share of blue rings in bristlecone pine from the White Mountains of California are at: 1453, 1601 and 1884CE (83%, 91%, 69% of blue rings respectively), attributed to known eruptions of Kuawe (attribution still debated) 1452CE -Vanuatu, Huaynaputina 1600CE – Peru, and Krakatoa 1883CE - Indonesia. Fourth most prominent event with 58% of blue rings is noted in 1200CE. Acidity peak in 1200CE is so far recorded only in Greenland ice-cores suggesting northern hemisphere high latitude eruption, but strong BR signal would suggest a broader climatic significance of this event. It is interesting to note that BRs were indicated in 69% of samples in 1884, relating to the known eruption and associated climate impact of Krakatoa (1883), yet no BRs were observed in 1816, the so-called year without a summer which followed the largest historically noted and well described eruption of Tambora, Indonesia (1815). We did find a strong BR signal in 1809 (with BRs continuing in 1810 and 1811) following an unidentified but prominent eruption seen in ice core records. The 1809 and 1815 eruptions are thought to be responsible for the cold decade from 1810 to 1819 thought by some to be the coldest decade of the last 500ys. The source of 1809 eruption remains unknown and scientific debate over the scale of the eruption continues, but bipolar acidity peaks in ice cores point to a tropical eruption with widespread sulfate distribution to both hemispheres and tephra in ice cores points to two coinciding high latitude eruptions of only regional prominence. The BR record supports 1809 CE as an event of global climatic significance illustrating the capacity for BRs  to capture cooling events with even higher time resolution (after the radial growth is completed) and of smaller magnitude than frost rings, TRW or MXD studies to help better investigate and understand the impacts of volcanism on climate and society.</p>