US Fed communication will be key to economic prospects

Significance While Chair Jerome Powell cautions that full employment remains some way off, the Fed is considering how and when to wind down its asset purchases. It could give more guidance at the Jackson Hole meeting this month. Impacts The Fed balance sheet has doubled as a share of GDP in 2020/21 and will remain large, possibly only shrinking slowly as the economy grows. Facing criticism of driving inequality, the Fed is unlikely to remove stimulus until gauges such as Black unemployment fall to low levels. Powell’s term as chair ends in February; Joe Biden and Janet Yellen will assess by end-2021 whether he should serve a second term.

Invitations to the Dance

In this chapter, I argue that the impact of the Obama presidency is best gauged not by examining shortfalls in Obama’s overt advocacy for race conscious policies but, rather, by examining what Obama did to assert that Black representatives should be more concerned about the enactment of legislation that advances Black progress than about credit claiming via overt advocacy. To illustrate, I examine select public speeches by Obama, White House documents, and press accounts to outline the Obama administration’s engagement with the Congressional Black Caucus and other elites over Black unemployment. Subsequent political clashes showcased Black dismay that a Black executive had not delivered tangible race-specific benefits, White fear that a Black president would practice racial favoritism, and an intergovernmental struggle between the executive and legislative branches over who should control employment policy. These clashes best illustrate how the “inclusionary dilemma” required Obama to utilize a complex engagement strategy with Black Americans to navigate Black dismay about job creation and to outline his socio-cultural-economic policy agenda. In the conclusion, I discuss how Obama used his final days in office to prepare the Obama coalition for the Trump presidency and to warn Black voters and Black elites about privileging style over substance.

Effects of county-level attributes on geographic variation in female breast cancer mortality rates across counties in United States.

e13093 Background: Though studies have examined geographic disparities in breast cancer mortality among United States (U.S.) counties, county-level risk factors were not accounted for. The aim of this study is to efficiently map the spatial association between female breast cancer mortality rates & socioeconomic attributes across U.S. counties for identifying high risk geographical clusters in terms of socioeconomic attributes. Methods: County-specific age standardized breast cancer mortality rates for women ≥20 years in the U.S. were obtained for 3,109 counties in 48 contiguous states from Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results program from 1990-2012. County-level attributes such as percentages of Hispanic white, Non-Hispanic white, Non-Hispanic black, < high school education, below 200% poverty, urban, foreign born, language isolation, women aged ≥ 40 years with mammography within last 2 years, and median household income were gathered from U.S. decennial census. Factor analysis condensed county attributes into three factor covariates namely Hispanic immigrants, health care access among urban high socioeconomic population, and non-Hispanic black unemployment. Spatiotemporal analysis was carried out by structured additive regression model to incorporate spatial functions & Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation techniques. Results: Moran’s index suggested existence of spatial dependence for breast cancer mortality among U.S. counties. As mammography screening, %urban population, % with high socioeconomic status and non-Hispanic black unemployment increased in counties of the Southwest region, Rocky mountain region and those in the western border of Midwest region of U.S, risk of breast cancer mortality increased significantly above the national average. As the Hispanic immigrant culture increased, counties of Midwest region of U.S had significantly higher mortality rates compared to national average. Conclusions: These initial results describe socio-economic, cultural, and healthcare access factors for observed geographic variations in female breast cancer mortality, and in turn, could support a stronger theoretical basis for public health policy.