Insurance losses caused by residential housing flood events

Purpose The purpose of this research study is to determine whether flood-damaged residences located in the USA are remaining unrepaired because of the lack of flood insurance coverage. Unrepaired flooded dwellings are subsequently being foreclosed with mortgage-insurance claims being paid to lenders. This paper aims to examine if weather events that cause flooding impact the losses suffered by mortgage insurers and homeowners. Design/methodology/approach Two fully modified least squares regression models are done using losses experienced by two mortgage insurance companies. The AM Best insurance rating information for a 16-year period or years 2002–2017 is used to study whether the loss ratios experienced by two companies underwriting private mortgage insurance (PMI) are statistically correlated to National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) claim levels. The assumption is that higher flood insurance claims are a proxy for more severe weather events during a particular year which results in flooding that damage residences. Findings The NFIP claims coefficient is positive and significant for both companies being examined. This indicates that the more serious the flooding event during a specific year, the higher the losses experienced by the private mortgage insurer. The R2 results for the regression models were 0.673–0.695. The income variable has a negative coefficient which was significant. It indicates that falling income lead to rising mortgage insurer losses. The NFIP variable was significant with a positive coefficient. Research limitations/implications The mortgage insurance industry is dominated by several companies at any point in time. During the 16-year study period, some companies have become insolvent, merged with other companies or recently started underwriting mortgage insurance. One company was diversified writing multiple lines of property insurance. There were only two insurers with complete financial information for the specified study period. Practical implications There are currently five mortgage insurers operating in the USA. A serious flood event could cause the insolvency of some of these companies. This would reduce the competition existing in the default insurance market. The financial markets for real estate loans price mortgages based on the availability and the ability to secure mortgage insurance for high loan-to-value properties. There is federal mortgage insurance available for certain types of residential loans. Social implications There are a limited number of insurers writing flood insurance. These companies can pick or reject dwellings and/or commercial properties to underwrite for insurance. The goal of phasing out insurance through the NFIP may prove impossible to achieve. A flood event without insurance would cause serious financial consequences to property owners, loan delinquencies and could depress the local economy for years. Competition from private mortgage insurers may intensify the adverse selection already being experienced by the NFIP. Private insurers would select the lower risk flood applications leaving the more risky insurance to be covered by the NFIP. Originality/value Prior research focused on financial variables impacting PMI and weather factors affecting flood insurance claims. Financial ratios published in the AM Best rating guide for the USA and Canada were used to examine whether or not PMI losses are indirectly affected by flooding events as measured by NFIP variable. Comparing two separate lines of insurance and their impact on each other has not been studied by prior researchers.

MORTGAGE INSURANCE: PROBLEMS AND METHODS OF SOLUTION

The article analyzes the key problems of the organization of mortgage insurance, implemented as a cross-product in the implementation of the bank product of a mortgage loan. The methods of solution for the problems that arise in the mortgage insurance market are proposed

Loan to Value Caps and Government-Backed Mortgage Insurance: Loan-Level Evidence from Dutch Residential Mortgages

Using loan level data on mortgage loans originated by Dutch banks during 1996 to 2015, we analyse the determinants of the incidence of non-performance. We find that both the originating loan-to-value ratio (OLTV) and the debt-service-to-income ratio are significantly positively associated with the probability of non-performance. The results suggest that mortgages with government-loan-guarantees perform better. Moreover, several mortgage loan and borrower characteristics, such as the (interest-only) loan type and the underwater status of the borrower, increase credit risk. Our model predictions suggest a novel policy implication: in order to avoid acceleration of non-performance probabilities, the OLTV-limit should be set to about 70–80% for uninsured mortgages, and to about 90% for those with mortgage insurance.

Insurance innovation with mortgage loan

The article highlights the problem of digital transformation of the insurance sector, which can facilitate the effective interaction of all participants, increase information transparency and improve the quality of analytical data, optimize the business processes of insurers, and involve a wider range of insurance services in the online environment. To simplify the work with customer data in the processes of automated data collection, analysis and storage, it is necessary to create a single database. Such a base can be an insurance history bureau. The development strategy of the insurance industry of the Russian Federation for 2019-2021 provides for the creation and use of insurance histories for various types of insurance by analogy with credit histories. Given that in recent years, along with traditional types of lending, mortgage lending has developed, it is proposed to create a mortgage insurance history bureau. Based on the data on issued and prematurely repaid mortgage loans for 2012-2018, the volumes of this information bureau were determined and a forecast was made for 2019-2023 on the number of existing mortgage loans. A business model for the creation and functioning of a mortgage insurance history bureau is proposed, and a cost-effectiveness calculation is made, confirming the feasibility of this proposal. The process of creating and operating a mortgage insurance history bureau is illustrated, which includes two stages: a preparatory stage for development of a regulatory document of the Central Bank establishing an access procedure and a list of information provided by insurers, amendments and additions to the relevant federal law, software development and definition of a bureau administrator insurance histories; an operation stage for the transfer of the client's dossier with the main parameters of the loan to the credit history bureau after acquiring a mortgage, transfer of the insurance company information about the concluded insurance contract for insurance bureau, storing information during the term of the loan, and five years after his retirement.