Pengembangan Model dan Metode Perhitungan Bonus Demografi

Previously research on bonus demographic measurement is still only focused on one model, namely dependency ratio which coverage two methods namely Cheung et al and Adioetomo. This research was carried out in East Lombok Regency and consist of two models, namely dependency ratio model and economic lifetime model. Dependency ratio model which coverage four methods namely Cheung et al, Adioetomo, Komine & Kabe, and Golini. Meanwhile economic lifetime model which coverage two methods namely support ratio and ratio of lifecycle pension wealth to total labour income. The aimed of this research is to determine model and method of bonus demographic measurement. This research used descriptive quantitative method. Based on the data analysis the results obtained that model that developed for measurement of demographic bonus is only dependency ratio model, meanwihle economic lifetime model isn’t developed yet. Refer to the fourth method of dependency ratio model, three methods have been developed namely Cheung et al, Adioetomo, Komine and Kabe, meanwhile Golini hasn’t been developed yet. Based on Cheung et al method East Lombok Timur Regency has been achieved demographic bonus between 2035 and 2045, but based on Adioetomo method between 2020 and 2045 has not been achieved demographic bonus yet and based on Komine and Kabe method will be achieved demographic bonus between 2020 and 2045. Keywords: demographic bonus, dependency ratio, economic lifetime

Construction and Analysis of Actuarial Model of the Influence of Personal Tax Deferred Commercial Pension Insurance on Personal Pension Wealth in China

Taking mortality distribution, surrender value, and tax relief factors into consideration, the authors construct an actuarial model for the influence of personal income tax deferred commercial pension insurance on changes in personal pension wealth and adopts a numerical simulation to deliver the corresponding changes in personal pension wealth to different initial insured age and different initial insured annual salary. In order to better measure the security level of the commercial pension insurance, the model for the net replacement rate of pension of the commercial pension insurance was further constructed. The results show that the effect of participating in the personal income tax deferred commercial pension insurance on the present value of personal pension wealth depends on the combined action of the initial insured age and the initial annual salary. Under the same insured age, because men retire later and work longer than women, men can obtain a higher accumulation of personal pension wealth than women. For insured persons with different income levels, high-income groups can obtain higher personal pension wealth growth, and although low-income groups cannot obtain higher personal pension wealth growth, they can obtain a significant increase in the pension replacement rate by participating in the insurance, thereby better guaranteeing their living standards after retirement. Regardless of the income level, tax relief can be obtained once participating in the insurance, but the value may vary. The optimal tax-saving age for men is 23 years old, and for women 25 years old.

Augmented wealth in Switzerland: the influence of pension wealth on wealth inequality

Entitlements for social security and occupational pensions present a major wealth component and play a central role for financial security. However, most individual-level data lacks information on pension wealth. By linking various data sources, this contribution estimates the present value of future pension entitlements in Switzerland for statutory pensions, occupational pensions and third pillar accounts and analyses the distribution of augmented wealth, which combines pension wealth and net worth. The CH-SILC survey from 2015 is used to estimate real assets, financial assets and pension wealth of retired individuals. The pension entitlements of non-retired individuals are simulated on the basis of their earning history from administrative records following the accrual method and assuming a real discount rate of 2%. When pension wealth is added to net worth, average wealth doubles, and the Gini-coefficient declines by 26%. The equalising effect is particularly strong for social security pensions. The wealth distribution differs strongly between the three pillars of the pension system; there are also strong differences between gender and age groups. In Switzerland, wealth accumulation continues after retirement age.

Career breaks, broken pensions? Long-run effects of early and late-career unemployment spells on pension entitlements

Unemployment periods and other career breaks have long-term scarring effects on future labour market possibilities, permanently affecting workers' retirement income and standard of living as pensioners. Previous literature has focused on the impact of job loss on working careers with little attention to its impact on pension wealth, particularly the extent to which longevity heterogeneity amplifies unemployment scars. This paper investigates the effect of single and multiple unemployment spells on the lifetime pension entitlements of earnings-related contributory pension schemes, considering the timing and duration of breaks, alternative lifecycle labour earnings profiles, scarring and restoration effects on labour market re-entry, the existence of pension credits and pension accruals for periods spent outside the labour market, longevity heterogeneity, and the accumulation and decumulation redistributive features of the pension scheme. Pension entitlements are estimated using a backward-looking simulation approach based on the actual Portuguese public pension system rules and stylized labour market profiles identified in the SHARE Job Episodes Panel data using a sequence analysis. Longevity heterogeneity is modelled using a stochastic mortality model with a frailty model. Our results show that the timing and duration of unemployment periods is critical, that scarring effects amplify pension wealth losses, that minimum pension provisions, pension credits and pension scheme redistributive features can partially mitigate the impact of unemployment periods on future entitlements, and that the presence of positive correlation between lifetime income and longevity career breaks can amplify the asymmetry in the distribution of pension entitlements across income groups.

The Influence of Household Pension Wealth, Partner’s Health and Spousal Employment Status on Heterogeneous Early Retirement Transitions among Women in England

Continued employment in later life is important for economic well-being and health, and is a key policy issue. However, existing models of the determinants of extended working life do not provide a detailed account of coupled women’s early retirement patterns in the United Kingdom. This article uses data from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing to show that partnered women aged between 50 and 59 do not adjust the timing of their labour force exit according to the level of pension wealth the couple has accrued. A retired or inactive spouse, caring obligations and poor health accelerate employment exit. Moreover, the odds of an involuntary exit from the labour force, where women have limited control or choice over the timing, are higher for women in lower pension wealth households than those in high wealth families, and among women with inactive rather than retired partners.