The Sound of Silence: Minorities, Abstention and Democracy

Despite the existence of an extensive literature, no definitive conclusion seems to emerge on the extent to which minorities are guaranteed by democratic rules in political systems. This paper contributes to this debate by proposing a modified Heigselmann and Krauss two-dimensional model of preferences in order to capture the role of abstention on minority representativeness. Regardless of the typology of abstention, simulation results show that voter abstention always benefits minorities.

Policy-based Abstention: An Application to Brazil’s 2002 Presidential Election

This paper implements a unified model of individual abstention and vote choice, applying it to analyze policy-based alienation and indifference in Brazil’s historical 2002 presidential election. The results indicate that both alienation and indifference have a negative impact on turnout, with indifference contributing slightly more to voter abstention. Also, the determinants of alienation and indifference differ considerably, the former being determined by structural factors such as voters’ information and perceived efficacy levels, while the latter was related to short-term aspects such as parties’ mobilization efforts. More importantly, the evidence shows that while alienation and indifference are strongly influenced by attitudinal and protest variables, they are also affected by citizens’ evaluation of candidates’ ideological locations. The main conclusion is that abstention in Brazil’s 2002 election had a policy-driven component and that spatial considerations played a substantive role in citizens’ electoral behavior, a fact that has been largely overlooked in previous research on the determinants of abstention in Latin America.

OS RECADOS DAS ELEIÇÕES MUNICIPAIS DE 2016: manutenção do status quo ou mudança?

RESUMO Quais as conclusões que a eleição municipal de 2016 oferta? Este artigo tem o objetivo de responder tal indagação. Ela nasceu em virtude de um aparente consenso observado no espaço midiático de que os resultados do último pleito municipal mostrou que os eleitores estão decepcionados com os políticos e de que existe onda conservadora no Brasil. Encaro estas assertivas como hipótese. Por isto, as testo através da análise de diversos indicadores, quais sejam: (1) Percentuais da abstenção eleitoral e votos brancos e nulos; (2) Quantidade de prefeituras conquistadas pelos partidos políticos; (3) Número de competidores; (4) E taxa de penetração eleitoral por parte das agremiações partidárias. Cinco eleições municipais são analisadas. PALAVRA-CHAVES: Eleição municipal. Decepção política. Onda conservadora. Status quo. ABSTRACT What are the conclusions that the 2016 municipal election offers? This article aims to answer such an inquiry. It was born because of an apparent consensus observed in the media space that the results of the last municipal election showed that voters are disappointed with politicians and that there is a conservative wave in Brazil. I see these assertions as hypotheses. For this reason, the testo through the analysis of several indicators, which are: (1) Percentage of voter abstention and white and void votes; (2) Number of prefectures held by political parties; (3) Number of competitors; (4) And electoral penetration rate by party associations. Five municipal elections are analyzed. KEYWORDS: Municipal election. Political disappointment. Conservative wave. Status quo. RESUMEN ¿Cuáles son las conclusiones que las elecciones municipales 2016 oferta? En este artículo se pretende dar respuesta a esta pregunta. Ella nació a causa de un aparente consenso observaron en el espacio de los medios que los resultados de las últimas elecciones municipales mostraron que los votantes están decepcionados con los políticos y que no hay ola conservadora en Brasil. Considero que estas afirmaciones como una hipótesis. Para ello, el testo a través del análisis de varios indicadores, a saber: (1) Los porcentajes de abstención electoral y los votos en blanco y nulos; (2) Número de municipios ganados por los partidos políticos; (3) Número de competidores; (4) y la tasa de penetración electoral por parte de las asociaciones de fabricantes. Se analizan cinco elecciones municipales. PALABRA CLAVE: Elección Municipal. Política de decepción. Ola conservadora. Statu quo.

Ortega will cement Sandinista dominance in Nicaragua

Subject The Nicaraguan elections. Significance On November 6, as expected, Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega won re-election by a comfortable margin. He will now embark on his third consecutive term in office and fourth in total, cementing his dominance over the country's political institutions. While the opposition was unable to make electoral headway, it will attempt to unite around claims of an illegal election in an effort to undermine the Ortega administration. Impacts Donald Trump's win in the US presidential election may see an increasingly critical US stance on Nicaragua's democracy turn to apathy. Any confirmation of mass voter abstention will be used by the opposition to undermine Ortega's legitimacy. The opposition may mount anti-government demonstrations, which could lead to clashes in Managua.

Why People Do Not Vote

Falling levels of electoral participation in established democracies have raised serious concern. We investigate the role of basic personal values in identifying those who do not vote. We argue that voting in specific elections offers non-voters less opportunity to affirm, protect, or attain the values they cherish than it offers to voters. We hypothesize that people who do not vote attribute less importance than voters to those values that the contesting parties actually endorse (actual value congruence) and that the parties are perceived as endorsing (perceived value congruence). Study 1 (Italian national elections of 2001, n = 1,782) confirmed the hypothesis for actual congruence between own and coalition endorsed values. Study 2 (2008 elections, n = 543) confirmed the hypothesis both for actual and perceived value congruence. In both studies, value congruence explained substantial variance in voter abstention beyond the effects of socio-demographic variables.