APPROBATION OF THE FEDERAL BUDGET DEFICIT MANAGEMENT PORTFOLIO MODEL

The article tested a modification of the G. Markowitz’s model for the task of managing the federal budget deficit in the formation of the federal law about the federal budget for the next fiscal year and for the planning period. The logical-mathematical method of empirical research was used in modeling with the use of theoretical conclusions in the sphere of public finance. The possibility of practical use of such a model is justified by the given assessment of the model parameters based on actual data for 2010-2017. Based on historical data, restrictions on the marginal volume of revenue planning from deficit financing sources are assumed. Because of macroeconomic uncertainty potential revenues are projected using interval coefficients. The effectiveness of the federal budget deficit management portfolio constructed according to the model is proposed to be compared with the deficit management parameters laid down in the federal budget in 2018. In addition, based on the assessment of the impact of diversification and expectations of economic agents (in the model presented as "transaction costs") the article discussed the feasibility of using the model in planning the management of the federal budget deficit. Taking into account the empirical results it is concluded that ignoring the expectations of the planning period in the formation of the federal budget deficit management strategy can lead to significant losses in revenues.

Comparative Characteristics of Sources of Financing of the Federal Budget Deficit in Russia and the United States

Information on the state of the Federal budget (surplus or deficit) is insufficient for an adequate, complete assessment of the state of the country’s economy. The budget deficit does not always speak only about the negative impact on the economy. From the point of view of economic theory, a budget surplus does not always mean that the policy of the state is successful and competent. The budget surplus indicates that the state has left free money that was not used to Finance important projects, which means the underutilization of potential. It is necessary to analyze the Federal budget deficit: what exactly is its cause, and most importantly — what sources of funding are attracted.

Impact of federal budget deficits on the ex ante real interest rate yield on Moody’s Baa-rated long-term corporate bonds, 1960-2015

Purpose To investigate the impact of the federal budget deficit (expressed as a per cent of the Gross Domestic Product, GDP) in the US on the ex ante real interest rate yield on Moody’s Baa-rated corporate bonds and to provide evidence that is both contemporary and covers an extended time period, namely, 1960 through 2015. Design/methodology/approach The analysis constructs a loanable funds model that involves a variety of financial and economic variables, with the ex ante real interest rate yield on Moody’s Baa-rated long-term corporate bonds as the dependent variable. The dependent variable is contemporaneous with the federal budget deficit and two other interest rate measures. Accordingly, instrumental variables are identified for each of these contemporaneous explanatory variables. The model also consists of four additional (lagged) explanatory variables. The model is then estimated using auto-regressive, i.e., AR(1), two-stage least squares. Findings The principal finding is that the ex ante real interest rate yield on Moody’s Baa rated corporate bonds is an increasing function of the federal budget deficit, expressed as a per cent of GDP. In particular, if the federal budget deficit were to rise by one per centage point, say from 3 to 4 per cent of GDP, the ex ante real interest rate would rise by 58 basis points. Research limitations/implications There are other time-series techniques that could be applied to the topic, such as co-integration, although the AR(1) process is tailored for studying volatile series such as interest rates and stock prices. Practical/implications The greater the US federal budget deficit, the greater the real cost of funds to firms. Hence, the high budget deficits of recent years have led to the crowding out of investment in new plant, new equipment, and new technology. These impacts lower economic growth and restrict prosperity in the US over time. Federal budget deficits must be substantially reduced so as to protect the US economy. Social/implications Higher budget deficits act to reduce investment in ew plant, new equipment and new technology. This in turn reduces job growth and real GDP growth and compromises the health of the economy. Originality/value This is the first study to focus on the impact of the federal budget deficit on the ex ante real long term cost of funds to firms in decades. Nearly all related studies fail to focus on this variable. Since, in theory, this variable (represented by the ex ante real yield on Moody’s Baa rated long term corporate bonds) is a key factor in corporate investment decisions, the empirical findings have potentially very significant implications for US firms and for the economy as a whole in view of the extraordinarily high budget deficits of recent years.

The Impact of Budget Deficits on the Ex Ante Real Interest Rate Yield on Long–Term Treasury Notes in the USA

Using four decades of data, this exploratory empirical study adopts a loanable funds model to investigate the impact of the federal budget deficit in the U.S. on the Ex Ante real interest rate yield on ten-year Treasury notes. For the 40- year period 1973-2012, empirical estimation using quarterly data reveals that the Ex Ante real interest rate yield on ten-year U.S. Treasury notes was an increasing function of the Ex Ante real interest rate yield on Moody's Aaa-rated corporate bonds, the Ex Ante real interest rate yield on three-month Treasury bills, and the increase in per capita real GDP, while being a decreasing function of net capital inflows (as a percent of GDP) and the monetary base (as a percent of GDP). In addition, it is found that the federal budget deficit (as a percent of GDP) exercised a positive and statistically significant impact on the Ex Ante real interest rate yield on ten-year Treasury notes, a finding consistent in principle with a number of prior studies of various interest rate measures during shorter and earlier time periods. A robustness test using the Ex Ante real seven-year Treasury note yield and annual data supports these findings.