The odd one out: The influence of ideological positioning on individual electoral success

Within many countries, voters not only have to cast a vote for a political party, but also have the option to select (a) candidate(s) within that party, a so-called preferential vote. Recent studies indicate that several factors influence the success of candidates within this intra-party competition, such as ballot list position, political experience, and socio-demographic characteristics. However, it has not yet been investigated whether ideology also matters for intra-party success. This study investigates the role of the ideological position of candidates within their party on the share of preferential votes they obtain. Can candidates win preferential votes by taking ideological niche positions within the party? To investigate this question, the study uses data from a candidate survey conducted during the 2014 Belgian elections in which candidates were asked to position themselves ideologically. The results of this study indicate that ideology does not play a strong role within the intra-party competition.

Centralized personalization at the expense of decentralized personalization. The decline of preferential voting in Belgium (2003–2014)

For more than two decades, scholars have been debating the so-called personalization of politics. Some studies confirm such an evolution, while others demonstrate that evidence of personalization is at best mixed, or even absent. This article aims at shedding a new light on this controversy by looking at the evolution of the use of preferential voting in Belgium. Preferential voting has been constantly growing, but since 2007, the trend has been reversed and fewer voters decide to cast a preferential vote. We argue that this decline is not evidence against personalization. Rather, it illustrates the need to distinguish conceptually and empirically between two dimensions of personalization: ‘centralized’ and ‘decentralized’ personalization. The decline in the use of preference votes is not related to a decline in the former (which refers to a handful of political leaders). Instead, it is due to the decline of the latter form of personalization (referring to a large group of individual politicians). Candidates other than party leaders appear to have growing difficulties to attract votes. This negative relationship holds, even when we control for measures of electoral reform and the newness of parties. Our results also show that leadership effects are stronger in new parties.

The Scottish Referendum

And the winner was… devo-max. It was not on the ballot paper; it received just a handful of spoiled votes; but it won. So maybe the two-option, yes-or-no ballot was not the most appropriate decision-making methodology. Rather, a three-option poll might have been the catalyst for a more subtle debate and a more accurate outcome, while a preferential vote on five or six options could have catered for even more sophistication. Accordingly, this article questions the decision to restrict the 2014 referendum to two options. Next, it asks what might have happened if a three-option ballot had been held. It then compares what could happen under different voting procedures before advocating a more inclusive structure. And lastly, consideration is given to multi-option referendums, both in Scotland and abroad.

Het gebruik van de voorkeurstem bij de regionale en Europese parlementsverkiezingen van 13 juni 2004

On 13 June 2003, elections for both the regional parliaments and the European Parliament were held in Belgium.The percentage of voters casting a preferential vote increased when compared with the previous regional and European elections of 1999, reaching scores clearly higher than 60%. The new electoral laws are one explanation for this increase, together with societal evolutions, such as individualism, anti-party feelings, personalization of polities and the appearance of cartels. In comparison with the federal elections of 2003 however, there was a decrease in prererential voting, due to lower campaign expenditures and to the success of parties that traditionally do not attract many preferential votes. Voters can also cast a vote for several candidates figuring on the same party list, which is contrary to the past done quite frequently now. Finally, more candidates than ever succeeded in becoming elected out oî the order of the party list.

Het gebruik van voorkeurstemmen bij de federale parlementsverkiezingen van 18 mei 2003

At 18 May 2003, elections for both the Belgian House of Representatives and Senate were held within a new institutional framework: among others the constituencies were enlarged.The percentage of voters casting a preferential vote increased again, reaching the highest score ever with 66,5 %for the House and 68,0 %for the Senate. Voters can also cast a vote for several candidates figuring on the same party list, which was not done very frequently in the past. The number of preference votes on one ballot increased enormously, with naw on average 2,23 for the House and 2,37 for the Senate. More candidates than ever succeeded in becoming elected out of the order of the party list, which was mostly decisive in the past.Thenew electoral laws are one reason for these changes, togethers with some political and social evolutions, such as individualism, anti-party feelings and mediatisation.

Het gebruik van de voorkeurstem bij de parlementsverkiezingen van 13 juni 1999

At 13 June 1999, elections for the regional Parliaments, the federal Parliament (both House of Representatives and Senate) and the European Parliament were held in Belgium.The percentage of voters casting a preferential vote at these elections increased again, reaching the highest score ever in Belgian history. On average, 60,9 % of the electorate expressed their preference for one or more candidates. Although voters have the possibility to cast a multiple preferential vote (i.e. a vote for several candidates figuring on the same party list) , this possibility is not used very much. A voter who cast a preferential vote, only vote on average for 1,73 candidates.The further increase in preferential votes was a little surprise since strong limitations were imposed upon campaign expenditures and on commercial affichage. Political and social evolutions, such as individualism, anti-party feelings and mediatisation seem to have had a stronger impact upon preferential voting than these material limitations.The use of the preferential vote varies from one constituency to another, from Flemings to Walloons, and from one party to another. There were some notable evolutions. The voters of the extreme-right Vlaams Blok and of the green parties Agalev and Ecolo, who traditionally cast less preferential votes than voters of other parties, have dimished the gap between them and the other parties. Another important evolution is the decrease of pref erential voting in some constituencies in Wallonia. As for the Senate and the European Parliament, more Flemings now cast a preferential vote than Walloons do. The large constituencies used for these elections seem to attract very well-known politicians and as a consequence also very much preferential votes in Flanders.Despite the increase in preferential voting, the order of the list, composed by the party remained in most cases decisive whether or nota candidate was elected.

Het gebruik van de meervoudige voorkeurstem bij de parlementsverkiezingen van 21 mei 1995

In Belgium the multiple preferential voting system was for the first time applied to parliamentary elections in 1995. Since then the electorate has the possibility to cast a vote for several candidates figuring on the same party list.As a result of this voting system change, more voters used the possibilities offered by the preferential voting system than during the 1991 elections: almost 57% of the electorate of 1995 cast a multiple vote on candidates for the House of Representatives - this was an increase of 8,6% compared to the 1991 results. For the Senate, the trend is even clearer: 59% of the electorate expressed their preference for one or more candidates of the Senate, resulting in an increase of 18,3% compared to 1991. Though one has to add that the above mentioned increases are only partly due to the election system change. Part of the increase is actually also due to a more accurate handling by the Ministery of Internal Affairs of the multiple preferential voting data figuring on the ballot-papers.Compared to previous elections the use of preferential voting was for the first time higher for the Senate than for the House of Representatives. Furthermore, the analysis showed that the use of the multiple preferential vote is varying from one constituency to another, from Flemings to Walloons and from one political party to another.

Het gebruik van de voorkeurstem bij de gemeenteraadsverkiezingen : Een terreinverkenning in de provincie Limburg

There is only few information available about the use of preferential votes at local elections, since the Belgian Home Department does not publish that particular statistical material. This article registers the size of preferential voting and discusses its consequences for the local political system, based on statistical data collected in the 43 municipalities of the Limburg province where local elections were held in 1988.Nearly 9 of the 10 voters used the preferential vote to express their choice. This is a much higher level than the one noticed at the general elections. The use of preferential votes is varying according to the size of the municipalities (more preferential votes in the smaller ones) and differs from one party to another (f.e. 92.7 % for the christian-democratic parties to 47.1 % for the radical left) .The local election system and the size of preferential votes at local elections explain why nearly 7 of the 10 local councillors broke through the order of the candidate-list. For the comparison, this occured only twice at the 1991 general elections.