Meteorological Analysis of Floods in Ghana

The first episodes of floods caused by heavy rainfall during the major rainy season in 2018 occurred in Accra (5.6°N and 0.17°W), a coastal town, and Kumasi (6.72°N and 1.6°W) in the forest region on the 18th and 28th of June, respectively. We applied the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to investigate and examine the meteorological dynamics, which resulted in the extreme rainfall and floods that caused 14 deaths, 34076 people being displaced with damaged properties, and economic loss estimated at $168,289 for the two cities according to the National Disaster Management Organization (NADMO). The slow-moving thunderstorms lasted for about 8 hours due to the weak African Easterly Wave (AEW) and Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ). Results from the analysis showed that surface pressures were low with significant amount of moisture influx aiding the thunderstorms intensification, which produced 90.1 mm and 114.6 mm of rainfall over Accra and Kumasi, respectively. We compared the rainfall amount from this event to the historical rainfall data to investigate possible changes in rainfall intensities over time. A time series of annual daily maximum rainfall (ADMR) showed an increasing trend with a slope of 0.45 over Accra and a decreasing trend and a slope of –0.07 over Kumasi. The 95th percentile frequencies of extreme rainfall with thresholds of 45.10 mm and 42.16 mm were analyzed for Accra and Kumasi, respectively, based on the normal distribution of rainfall. Accra showed fewer days with more heavy rainfall, while Kumasi showed more days with less heavy rainfalls.

Reduced African Easterly Wave Activity with Quadrupled CO2 in the Superparameterized CESM

African easterly wave (AEW) activity is examined in quadrupled CO2 experiments with the superparameterized CESM (SP-CESM). The variance of 2–10-day filtered precipitation increases with warming over the West African monsoon region, suggesting increased AEW activity. The perturbation enstrophy budget is used to investigate the dynamic signature of AEW activity. The northern wave track becomes more active associated with enhanced baroclinicity, consistent with previous studies. The southern track exhibits a surprising reduction of wave activity associated with less frequent occurrence of weak waves and a slight increase in the occurrence of strong waves. These changes are connected to changes in the profile of vortex stretching and tilting that can be understood as interconnected consequences of increased static stability from the lapse rate response, weak temperature gradient balance, and the fixed anvil temperature hypothesis.

The genesis of Hurricane Nate and its interaction with a nearby environment of very dry air

The interaction of a tropical disturbance with its environment is thought to play an important role in whether a disturbance will develop or not. Most developing disturbances are somewhat protected from the intrusion of environmental dry air at mid-levels. For African easterly wave (AEW) disturbances, the protective boundary is approximated by closed streamlines in the wave-relative frame, and their interior is called the wave pouch. The dynamic and thermodynamic processes of spin-up occur inside the pouch. In this study, we define the kinematic boundaries for a non-AEW disturbance in the Bay of Campeche that originated along a sharp frontal boundary in a confluent region of low pressure. We examine these boundaries during the genesis of Hurricane Nate (2011) to show how a pouch boundary on isobaric levels in the Lagrangian frame may allow for some transport into the pouch along the frontal boundary while still protecting the innermost development region. This result illustrates a generic property of weakly unsteady flows, including the time-dependent critical layer of AEWs, that lateral exchange of air occurs along a segment of the boundary formed by the instantaneous, closed translating streamlines. Transport in the Lagrangian frame is simplest when measured with respect to the stable and unstable manifolds of a hyperbolic trajectory, which are topologically invariant. In this framework, an exact analysis of vorticity transport identifies the primary source as the advection of vorticity through the entrainment and expulsion of bounded material regions called lobes. We also show how these Lagrangian boundaries impact the concentration of moisture, influence convection, and contribute to the pouch vertical structure.