Drivers behind the summer 2010 wave train leading to Russian heatwave and Pakistan flooding

Summer 2010 saw two simultaneous extremes linked by an atmospheric wave train: a record-breaking heatwave in Russia and severe floods in Pakistan. Here, we study this wave event using a large ensemble climate model experiment. First, we show that the circulation in 2010 reflected a recurrent wave train connecting the heatwave and flooding events. Second, we show that the occurrence of the wave train is favored by three drivers: (1) 2010 sea surface temperature anomalies increase the probability of this wave train by a factor 2-to-4 relative to the model’s climatology, (2) early-summer soil moisture deficit in Russia not only increases the probability of local heatwaves, but also enhances rainfall extremes over Pakistan by forcing an atmospheric wave response, and (3) high-latitude land warming favors wave-train occurrence and therefore rainfall and heat extremes. These findings highlight the complexity and synergistic interactions between different drivers, reconciling some seemingly contradictory results from previous studies.

Fast and slow components of millennial-scale climate changes

<p>Despite a substantial body of evidence on millennial-scale climate variability during Marine Isotope Stage 3, uncertainty remains over the precise sequence of changes in different parts of the climate system, and ultimately their causes.  Here, we present results of joint marine and terrestrial proxy analyses from the Portuguese Margin, showing the typical succession of cold stadials and warm interstadials over the interval 35-57 ka, with most extreme changes occurring during Heinrich Stadials (HS).  The planktonic and benthic foraminiferal isotope records map onto Greenland and Antarctic temperature variations, respectively, while the pollen record bears a close similarity to changes in the Asian summer monsoon, atmospheric methane and dust concentrations, indicating coupled changes in hydroclimate in middle-to-low latitudes.  Closer inspection of HS4 and HS5 reveals considerable structure, with a relatively fast transition to maximum cooling and aridity associated with a peak in ice-rafted detritus, containing detrital carbonate grains originating from the Hudson Strait.  This was followed by an interval of slowly increasing sea-surface temperatures (SST) and moisture availability, in line with evidence indicating a gradual evolution in low-latitude hydroclimate.  A climate model experiment closely reproduces the gradual increase in SST and precipitation in W. Iberia during the final part of HS4 as a result of the recovery of the Atlantic overturning circulation, but does not capturethe abrupt warming in Greenland.  What emerges is a diversity of response timescales, from centuries in low-to-mid latitude SST and precipitation to decades in Greenland temperatures.</p>

Trends in Upper-Tropospheric Humidity: Expansion of the Subtropical Dry Zones?

Subtropical dry zones, located in the Hadley cells’ subsidence regions, strongly influence regional climate as well as outgoing longwave radiation. Changes in these dry zones could have significant impact on surface climate as well as on the atmospheric energy budget. This study investigates the behavior of upper-tropospheric dry zones in a changing climate, using the variable upper-tropospheric humidity (UTH), calculated from climate model experiment output as well as from radiances measured with satellite-based sensors. The global UTH distribution shows that dry zones form a belt in the subtropical winter hemisphere. In the summer hemisphere they concentrate over the eastern ocean basins, where the descent regions of the subtropical anticyclones are located. Recent studies with model and satellite data have found tendencies of increasing dryness at the poleward edges of the subtropical subsidence zones. However, UTH calculated from climate simulations with 25 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) shows these tendencies only for parts of the winter-hemispheric dry belts. In the summer hemisphere, even though differences exist between the simulations, UTH is increasing in most dry zones, particularly in the South and North Pacific Ocean. None of the summer dry zones is expanding in these simulations. Upper-tropospheric dry zones estimated from observational data do not show any robust signs of change since 1979. Apart from a weak drying tendency at the poleward edge of the southern winter-hemispheric dry belt in infrared measurements, nothing indicates that the subtropical dry belts have expanded poleward.

The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (GeoMIP6): simulation design and preliminary results

We present a suite of new climate model experiment designs for the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). This set of experiments, named GeoMIP6 (to be consistent with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6), builds on the previous GeoMIP project simulations, and has been expanded to address several further important topics, including key uncertainties in extreme events, the use of geoengineering as part of a portfolio of responses to climate change, and the relatively new idea of cirrus cloud thinning to allow more longwave radiation to escape to space. We discuss experiment designs, as well as the rationale for those designs, showing preliminary results from individual models when available. We also introduce a new feature, called the GeoMIP Testbed, which provides a platform for simulations that will be performed with a few models and subsequently assessed to determine whether the proposed experiment designs will be adopted as core (Tier 1) GeoMIP experiments. This is meant to encourage various stakeholders to propose new targeted experiments that address their key open science questions, with the goal of making GeoMIP more relevant to a broader set of communities.

The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (GeoMIP6): simulation design and preliminary results

We present a suite of new climate model experiment designs for the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). This set of experiments, named GeoMIP6 (to be consistent with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6), builds on the previous GeoMIP simulations, and has been expanded to address several further important topics, including key uncertainties in extreme events, the use of geoengineering as part of a portfolio of responses to climate change, and the relatively new idea of cirrus cloud thinning to allow more longwave radiation to escape to space. We discuss experiment designs, as well as the rationale for those designs, showing preliminary results from individual models when available. We also introduce a new feature, called the GeoMIP Testbed, which provides a platform for simulations that will be performed with a few models and subsequently assessed to determine whether the proposed experiment designs will be adopted as core (Tier 1) GeoMIP experiments. This is meant to encourage various stakeholders to propose new targeted experiments that address their key open science questions, with the goal of making GeoMIP more relevant to a broader set of communities.