PERENCANAAN PENGELOLAAN WILAYAH PESISIR PULAU JAWA DITINJAU DARI ASPEK KERENTANAN KAWASAN DAN IMPLIKASINYA TERHADAP KEMUNGKINAN BENCANA KENAIKAN MUKA LAUT

Dampak pemanasan global, yaitu berupa kenaikan muka laut dengan kecepatan 2-8 mm/tahun yang tampaknya lambat dan tidak berarti, akan tetapi dalam 100 tahun mendatang kenaikan muka laut tersebut mampu untuk menggenangi kawasan pesisir P. Jawa yang memiliki morfologi pantai yang landai dan bersudut lereng kecil. Kenaikan muka laut merupakan bencana alam yang lambat dan bisa diprediksi, namun dengan sifat yang demikian justru manusia cenderung lupa segera menanganinya. Oleh karena itu, untuk mengantisipasi kemungkinan terjadinya bencana, serta mengurangi bahkan memperkecil dampak negatif risiko bencana tersebut, perlu memasukan komponen manajemen risiko bencana alam (risk management of natural disaster) di dalam penyusunan tata ruang wilayah (RTRW). Kata kunci: kenaikan muka laut, manajemen risiko bencana alam, Pulau Jawa, pesisir The impact of global warming, in the form of sea level rise by the rate 2-8 mm/year which seems slow and insignificant, but in the next 100 years sea level rise are can inundate coastal areas of Java which has a low slope beach morphology and small slope angles. Sea-level rise is a natural disaster that slow and predictable, but the nature of such people tend to forget it immediately. Therefore, to anticipate disasters and reduce or even minimize the negative impact of disaster risks, it is need to include components of risk management of natural disaster in the preparation of the spatial planning. Keywords: sealevel rise, risk management of natural disaster, Java, coastal

The UBO-TSUFD tsunami inundation model: validation and application to a tsunami case study focused on the city of Catania, Italy

Nowadays numerical models are a powerful tool in tsunami research since they can be used (i) to reconstruct modern and historical events, (ii) to cast new light on tsunami sources by inverting tsunami data and observations, (iii) to build scenarios in the frame of tsunami mitigation plans, and (iv) to produce forecasts of tsunami impact and inundation in systems of early warning. In parallel with the general recognition of the importance of numerical tsunami simulations, the demand has grown for reliable tsunami codes, validated through tests agreed upon by the tsunami community. This paper presents the tsunami code UBO-TSUFD that has been developed at the University of Bologna, Italy, and that solves the non-linear shallow water (NSW) equations in a Cartesian frame, with inclusion of bottom friction and exclusion of the Coriolis force, by means of a leapfrog (LF) finite-difference scheme on a staggered grid and that accounts for moving boundaries to compute sea inundation and withdrawal at the coast. Results of UBO-TSUFD applied to four classical benchmark problems are shown: two benchmarks are based on analytical solutions, one on a plane wave propagating on a flat channel with a constant slope beach; and one on a laboratory experiment. The code is proven to perform very satisfactorily since it reproduces quite well the benchmark theoretical and experimental data. Further, the code is applied to a realistic tsunami case: a scenario of a tsunami threatening the coasts of eastern Sicily, Italy, is defined and discussed based on the historical tsunami of 11 January 1693, i.e. one of the most severe events in the Italian history.