SARDE

Resource demands are crucial parameters for modeling and predicting the performance of software systems. Currently, resource demand estimators are usually executed once for system analysis. However, the monitored system, as well as the resource demand itself, are subject to constant change in runtime environments. These changes additionally impact the applicability, the required parametrization as well as the resulting accuracy of individual estimation approaches. Over time, this leads to invalid or outdated estimates, which in turn negatively influence the decision-making of adaptive systems. In this article, we present SARDE , a framework for self-adaptive resource demand estimation in continuous environments. SARDE dynamically and continuously tunes, selects, and executes an ensemble of resource demand estimation approaches to adapt to changes in the environment. This creates an autonomous and unsupervised ensemble estimation technique, providing reliable resource demand estimations in dynamic environments. We evaluate SARDE using two realistic datasets. One set of different micro-benchmarks reflecting different possible system states and one dataset consisting of a continuously running application in a changing environment. Our results show that by continuously applying online optimization, selection and estimation, SARDE is able to efficiently adapt to the online trace and reduce the model error using the resulting ensemble technique.

Intraseasonal Ensemble Forecasting for the Brazilian Northeastern

This preliminary analysis, uses simulations performed by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) coupled forecast system model version 2 (CFSv2) /regional climate model RegCM-4.6, allowed to be observed in this work, the data analyzed were the information of the surface wind intensity, by the analysis and comparison of the simulations carried out for the Alcântara region on the coast of the state of Maranhão. These simulations were stored in the period from February to June 2018. The analysis sought to validate with ERA5 reanalysis data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The observed result shows great potential for use of prediction ensemble techniques, since in the observed results the smallest anomalies were observed in the intraseasonal ensemble prediction to the Alcântara region in the intensity wind, in comparison to the simulation without being ensemble, presenting greater deviations and when closer to the forecast, in itself, greater deviations presented. The intraseasonal Ensemble estimation ends up filtering the terms of high frequency, being the best estimate and presenting intraseasonal predictions more balanced.

BEES: Bayesian Ensemble Estimation from SAS

1AbstractMany biomolecular complexes exist in a flexible ensemble of states in solution which are necessary to perform their biological function. Small angle scattering (SAS) measurements are a popular method for characterizing these flexible molecules due to their relative ease of use and ability to simultaneously probe the full ensemble of states. However, SAS data is typically low-dimensional and difficult to interpret without the assistance of additional structural models. In theory, experimental SAS curves can be reconstituted from a linear combination of theoretical models, although this procedure carries significant risk of overfitting the inherently low-dimensional SAS data. Previously, we developed a Bayesian-based method for fitting ensembles of model structures to experimental SAS data that rigorously avoids overfitting. However, we have found that these methods can be difficult to incorporate into typical SAS modeling workflows, especially for users that are not experts in computational modeling. To this end, we present the “Bayesian Ensemble Estimation from SAS” (BEES) program. Two forks of BEES are available, the primary one existing as module for the SASSIE webserver and a developmental version that is a standalone python program. BEES allows users to exhaustively sample ensemble models constructed from a library of theoretical states and to interactively analyze and compare each model’s performance. The fitting routine also allows for secondary data sets to be supplied, thereby simultaneously fitting models to both SAS data as well as orthogonal information. The flexible ensemble of K63-linked ubiquitin trimers is presented as an example of BEES’ capabilities.

Ensemble Estimation of Information Divergence †

Recent work has focused on the problem of nonparametric estimation of information divergence functionals between two continuous random variables. Many existing approaches require either restrictive assumptions about the density support set or difficult calculations at the support set boundary which must be known a priori. The mean squared error (MSE) convergence rate of a leave-one-out kernel density plug-in divergence functional estimator for general bounded density support sets is derived where knowledge of the support boundary, and therefore, the boundary correction is not required. The theory of optimally weighted ensemble estimation is generalized to derive a divergence estimator that achieves the parametric rate when the densities are sufficiently smooth. Guidelines for the tuning parameter selection and the asymptotic distribution of this estimator are provided. Based on the theory, an empirical estimator of Rényi-α divergence is proposed that greatly outperforms the standard kernel density plug-in estimator in terms of mean squared error, especially in high dimensions. The estimator is shown to be robust to the choice of tuning parameters. We show extensive simulation results that verify the theoretical results of our paper. Finally, we apply the proposed estimator to estimate the bounds on the Bayes error rate of a cell classification problem.