Ensemble Learning for Predicting TOC from Well-Logs of the Unconventional Goldwyer Shale

Precise estimation of total organic carbon (TOC) is extremely important for the successful characterization of an unconventional shale reservoir. Indirect traditional continuous TOC prediction methods from well-logs fail to provide accurate TOC in complex and heterogeneous shale reservoirs. A workflow is proposed to predict a continuous TOC profile from well-logs through various ensemble learning regression models in the Goldwyer shale formation of the Canning Basin, WA. A total of 283 TOC data points from ten wells is available from the Rock-Eval analysis of the core specimen where each sample point contains three to five petrophysical logs. The core TOC varies largely, ranging from 0.16 wt % to 4.47 wt % with an average of 1.20 wt %. In addition to the conventional MLR method, four supervised machine learning methods, i.e., ANN, RF, SVM, and GB are trained, validated, and tested for continuous TOC prediction using the ensemble learning approach. To ensure robust TOC prediction, an aggregated model predictor is designed by combining the four ensemble-based models. The model achieved estimation accuracy with R2 value of 87%. Careful data preparation and feature selection, reconstruction of corrupted or missing logs, and the ensemble learning implementation and optimization have improved TOC prediction accuracy significantly compared to a single model approach.

High-Resolution Late Devonian Magnetostratigraphy From the Canning Basin, Western Australia: A Re-Evaluation

Late Devonian time was a period of rapid upheaval in the Earth system, including climate change, sea level changes, widespread ocean anoxia, and the Frasnian-Famennian mass extinction; the cause(s) of these changes remain(s) uncertain. The Lennard Shelf of the Canning Basin in Western Australia contains carbonate reef sections spanning much of the Late Devonian Epoch and has been sampled for paleomagnetic analysis with studies by Hansma and colleagues in 2015 and Playton and colleagues in 2016. However, previous paleomagnetic directions were scattered and their use for magnetostratigraphy has been questioned. Here, rock magnetic data and magnetostratigraphy for a late Devonian drill-core from the Lennard Shelf were analyzed. Three magnetostratigraphic interpretations were made using different paleopoles that showed good correlation with each other and the earlier interpretations by Playton and colleagues in 2016. Additionally, the rock magnetic data revealed the samples contain various mixtures of detrital and diagenetic minerals, the former of which should be viable recorders of primary magnetic signatures. Even in samples with these detrital phases, paleomagnetic data were often noisy and produced ambiguous polarity assignments, likely due to the anomalously weak Devonian field. Because of this ambiguity and the absence of a robust paleopole, broader correlations for this critical time-period will be difficult without additional paleomagnetic data from the late Devonian Period. Expanded data for this interval could eventually shed light on the timing, causes, and rates of the Frasnian-Famennian mass extinction and other environmental shifts in the late Devonian Epoch.

The Gogo Formation Lagerstätte: A view of Australia's first Great Barrier Reef

Discoveries from the Late Devonian Gogo Formation, in the Canning Basin, Western Australia have provided insights into the origin and evolution of many unique gnathostome features such as the origins of teeth, internal fertilisation, air-breathing, transitional tissues between bone and cartilage, and insights into the fin to limb transition. Although vertebrate studies have dominated evolutionary work, invertebrate studies have added important insights into the palaeoecology of the site and demonstrated close faunal affinities along the margins of northern Gondwana and China. Geochemical analyses have broadened the understanding of the pathways involved in the exceptional preservation of this Devonian Konservat-Lagerstätte. Fossils from the Gogo Formation show extensive soft tissue preservation through phosphatization recording anatomical details not normally obtained from fossil sites.