Asymmetric wage adjustment and employment in European firms

We explore the impact of wage adjustment on employment with a focus on the role of downward nominal wage rigidities. We use a harmonised survey dataset, which covers 25 European countries in the period 2010–2013. These data are particularly useful for this paper given the firm-level information on the change in economic conditions and collective pay agreements. Our findings confirm the presence of wage rigidities in Europe: first, collective pay agreements reduce the probability of downward wage adjustment; second, wage responses to demand developments are asymmetric with a weaker downward response. Estimation results show that a wage reduction significantly lowers the probability of a decrease in employment at the firm level when demand falls and thereby point to a negative effect of downward wage rigidities on employment at the firm level.

The Impact of Immigration on Wage Dynamics: Evidence from the Algerian Independence War

This paper investigates the dynamics of wage adjustment to an exogenous increase in labor supply exploiting the sudden and unexpected inflow of repatriates to France resulting from Algerian independence in 1962. I measure the impact of this particular supply shift on the average wage of pre-existing native workers across French regions between 1962 and 1976. I find that regional wages decreased between 1962 and 1968, before returning to their pre-shock level 15 years after. I also investigate the dynamics of skill-specific wages in response to the regional penetration of repatriates and find that the wages of high and low educated native workers declined initially but fully recovered by 1976.

The Negative Mean Output Gap

We argue that in an economy with downward nominal wage rigidity, the output gap is negative on average. Because it is more difficult to cut wages than to increase them, firms reduce employment more during downturns than they increase employment during expansions. This is demonstrated in a simple New Keynesian model with asymmetric wage adjustment costs. Using the model's output gap as a benchmark, we further show that common output gap estimation methods exhibit a systematic bias because they assume a zero mean. The bias is especially large in deep recessions when potential output tends to be most severely underestimated.

Tax-Rate Rules for Reducing Government Debt

This chapter uses an example to demonstrate the steps of specifying, calibrating, solving, and simulating a macroeconomic model in order to evaluate alternative policies for reducing domestic public debt. It extends the simple closed-economy New Keynesian model by incorporating the zero lower bound and asymmetric wage adjustment (in which wages are much more rigid in the downward direction). We examine the dynamics of adjustment, given a sharp increase in government debt due to a once-only big increase in spending. We find that selective tax-rate rules, incorporating a degree of tax relief in a period of fiscal consolidation, are effective instruments for rapidly reducing the overhang of a large stock of public debt.