A magyar állampénzügyi rendszer rezilienciája a COVID–19 járvány kapcsán

Összefoglaló. A COVID–19 járvány a magyar gazdaság teljesítményeit és pénzügyi egyensúlyát is gyengítette, ám a korábbról stabil államháztartási alapok következtében a negatív hatások csak átmenetinek vélelmezhetők. Magyarország 2010–2019 között egy sikeres állampénzügyi reformot hajtott végre, amely jó alapot ad a válság elleni védekezéshez. Ugyanakkor a járványválság még erősebben ráirányítja a figyelmet a magyar nemzetgazdaság versenyképességének erősebb javítására, az infláció fékezésére, a költségvetési egyensúly megfelelő keretek között tartására, és a kis- és középvállalati szektor mérethatékonyságának növelésére. A tanulmány bemutatja a válság alatti fiskális és jegybanki intézkedések vázát, és egyúttal utal a válság utáni időszak kihívásaira, amelyek a nemzetközi térből, s különösen a jegybanki politika megváltozásából fakadnak. Summary. The COVID-19 epidemic hit the position of the otherwise strong Hungarian economy. We could see an economic downturn and financial imbalance developed in the last one and half years. As in the recovery (post-crisis) period of the 2010 decade, the crisis is being addressed with the active involvement of the state and the central bank. However, in the course of managing the crisis, it arises that on the new growth trajectory to be built after the recovery period, the competitiveness aspects, especially in the small and medium-sized enterprise category, which plays a major role in Hungary, should be more efficient than in the previous decade. It is necessary to improve the size efficiency, liquidity and capital efficiency of the SME sector by means of fiscal regulation, and the allocation of state resources should be more strongly linked to the requirements of export capacity and innovative business conduct. The decade after the 2007–2008 crisis – the previous recovery period – was characterized by the weak enforcement of fiscal policies in regulating and improving competitiveness, especially in Hungary, where change is essential. After 2013, Hungarian monetary policy also caught up with the international practice of quantitative easing, achieving significant results in improving both the financial balance and economic growth. However, the previous quantitative easing of the central bank, as well as the increase of budget expenditures on epidemiological expenditures, investments, normative budget annual subsidies from the European Union and subsidies from the European Reconstruction Fund, and even investment loans from our Eastern economic partners, generates an overheated economy, inflationary pressures, and external and balance of payments deficits. Added to this is the wage dynamics of the population, and the permanent and even increasing disbursement of family benefits during the crisis. All in all, in the 2020s we will face a new financial-debt crisis, unemployment and labor shortage problems, the competitiveness problems of the small business sector, culminating in the reorganization of the world economy, new competitiveness aspects, it will be a rather complex task. Thus, the turn of competitiveness that has essentially failed in the context of an abundance of resources and consolidated macroeconomic conditions (2010-2019) must be implemented “uphill”, it is only the time, will and opportunity to take its first steps. But the main lesson of the crises caused by the epidemics (also) is that the remaining economic entities have become stronger. And perhaps there is a chance to avoid falling into the trap of medium development through a new central bank policy that moderates inflation and truly enforces modernization considerations, as well as improving financial positions and improving economic positions (competitiveness).

Wages in Russia in 2015-2021

The article presents analysis of the wage dynamics in the Russian Federation in 2015-2020 and the first half of 2021. In 2018 Russia changed the methodology for calculating separate items in the Balance sheet of the population monetary income and expenses. This concerned, among other things, the item of payment for work, from which hidden (officially unaccounted for) wages and other cash receipts were excluded, and payroll fund of employees in organizations was singled out. Besides, Rosstat developed methods for estimating average wages of all employees (working in organizations, for individual entrepreneurs, farmers and individuals) and published the results for 2015-2021. The article also presents author's estimation of the average wages of employees working for individual entrepreneurs, farmers, and individuals in 2018-2020. In 2020 average wages of these categories of workers made 72.9% of the average wages of all employees and 60.2% of the employed in organizations. Due to lack of official data on the wage differentiation of all employees, the article provides variants of its estimation for 2017-2019 using primary data from SSPI. Low wages of those working for individual entrepreneurs, farmers and individuals serve as a factor of higher earnings inequality of all categories of employees. In 2019 R/P 10% ratio made by different calculation algorithms 18.5 and 15.7 times against 13 times for those employed in organizations. There are provided results on the impact of the minimum wage on the level and differentiation of wages.

An Insight into Wage Dynamics and Inequality Scenario under Changing Landscape of Rural India

This article examined the level and recent trends in rural wages, the extent of the wage gap and inequality across the states in agriculture. Recent trends showed a continuous and persistent rise in real wages for agricultural and non-farm activities in rural areas. Inequality in wage rate was lower among diverse agricultural operations within and across the year(s). Regression analysis indicated that the wage rate was agriculture was positively influenced by productivity, period and labour availability. Effective implementation of minimum wage law and equal pay for work of equal value would reduce the wage gap and inequality.

Informality, labour transitions, and the livelihoods of workers in Latin America

This paper studies the incidence and heterogeneity of labour informality in six Latin American countries—Argentina, Brazil, Ecuador, Mexico, Paraguay, and Peru. We divide workers into five work statuses: formal wage-employed, formal self-employed, upper-tier informal wage-employed, lower-tier informal wage-employed, and informal self-employed. We evaluate the patterns of the occupational turnover between these work statuses and assess their impact on wage dynamics. In all the countries, wages are highest for formal workers and lowest for lower-tier informal jobs. The proportion of formal workers who maintain their work status of origin or move up the job ladder is significantly higher than those who transition into lower-paying work statuses. However, despite the high labour turnover experienced by lower-tier informal wage employees, most failed to move up the wage ladder. Education plays an important role, as it increases the probability of transitioning into a better job and, within informality, the chance of better wages.

Invisible Shifts in and Out of the Classroom: Dynamics of Teacher Salary and Teacher Supply in Urban China

Background The remarkable economic growth in contemporary China is unprecedented, but scholars voice concerns regarding unintended consequences during this transitional phase. Of particular concern is the constant challenge to staff schools with highly qualified teachers. Purpose This study sets out to understand subtle yet consequential changes in schools during a sustained period of economic boom, through the lens of teacher occupational choice. This study contributes empirically to the teacher occupational choice literature by identifying the magnitude of lag in wage growth and returns to human capital in the teaching profession, and their critical relationship affecting high-ability workers’ career decisions. Research Design Using a nationally representative repeated cross-sectional data set spanning a quarter century (1988–2013), this study estimates Mincer earnings function regression models and multinomial probit regression models to assess wage differentials and heterogeneous rates of return to human capital in teaching and nonteaching sectors, in addition to untangling complex relationships between worker quality and observed occupational choice. Findings We documented several novel facts about teachers in contemporary urban China. First, we found sharp shifts in the relative career attractiveness of teaching, such that a 13% wage premium for teachers in 1988 dissipated over time and regressed to a 11% wage penalty in 2013, when compared with similar workers. Second, returns to tertiary education are markedly higher in nonteaching careers—about 11–15 percentage points more so than in teaching. Third, highly educated workers in younger cohorts are half as likely to become teachers relative to older cohorts, particularly in recent years. Conclusions The authors contextualize findings and discuss appropriate policy implications. Most importantly, holding back teacher wage levels from broader market prices has consequential effects on teacher supply. Policy makers need to reconsider existing forms of teacher compensation arrangements and develop sustainable wage dynamics that can attract and retain bright minds to enter and stay in teaching.

Socio-Economic Aspects of the Development of Agricultural Enterprises in Irkutsk Region

Living standards and the level of socio-economic development are inextricably linked to the economic efficiency of production, distribution, exchange, and consumption of the material goods. The productivity and salary level of agro-industrial enterprises have a decisive influence on the level of agricultural enterprises development and financial capabilities. The article analyzed the impact of the main factors on the workers wages in Irkutsk region agricultural enterprises. The study focused on the analysis of wage dynamics and its impact on productivity in agricultural enterprises. The study concluded that there is a need to develop, strengthen and improve production by creating conditions for the development of industrial and agricultural production, which will lead to the creation of additional jobs and increase the gross domestic product production to provide the population with high quality food products.