THE AVERAGE PERIOD OF PRODUCTION: THE HISTORY AND REHABILITATION OF AN IDEA

Austrian capital theory tried to capture the intuitive and basically undeniable importance that time plays in economic life, but arguably was diverted down a blind alley with Eugen von Böhm-Bawerk’s average period of production, a purely physical measure of ‘roundaboutness’—the length of the production process. For the general case, such a measure is a chimera. But the intuition is strong, and the idea survived and reappeared at various points in the history of capital theory. Almost unknown to economists, an alternative value measure of roundaboutness has existed at least since John Hicks’s formulation of his average period (AP) in 1939, which, coincidentally, was exactly the same measure discovered by the financial actuary Frederick Macaulay in 1938, called by him “Duration” (D). Macaulay’s D, more richly interpreted as Hicks’s AP, is a measure that more appropriately captures what it was that the Austrians struggled to express over many years in their capital theory and in their analysis of the business cycle.

A financial framework for understanding macroeconomic cycles

Purpose A comprehensive understanding business cycles needs to account not only for the allocation of resources over time but also for resource allocation across industries at any point in time. But to properly understand how these “time-distortions” take place and how the price mechanisms that drive them work, a clear and well-defined conceptualization of the “average length” of the structure of production is required. The authors use insights provided by Macaulay’s duration and Hicks’s average period to show that financial duration and related concepts have a direct connection to macroeconomic stability. Design/methodology/approach This study uses a theoretical and conceptual approach. It first presents the connection between average period of production and financial duration and then compares and applies this to macroeconomic business cycle theories. Findings This study points to important implications for macroeconomic policy. It not only claims that a low interest rate contributes to the creation of asset bubbles but also shows the market mechanism through which the real sector is affected. The application of financial concepts to macroeconomic cycles shows the price mechanism through which resources are allocated across industries. Originality/value The financial approach we offer to business cycles is fairly unexplored. As such, this paper offers a novel conceptual and theoretical framework for business cycles.

Public Debt and Price Stability

Modernized Austrian capital theory implies: in capital market equilibrium without public debt the average period of production equals the average waiting period of households. In the twenty-first century and for the OECD plus China area, demographic and production parameters are such that capital market equilibrium implies a negative real rate of interest. Price stability implies a non-negative real rate of interest. Prosperity requires capital market equilibrium. Thus, positive public debt is required for price stability under conditions of prosperity. Some conclusions are drawn for actual international macropolicy.