Tracking Covid-19 Cases and Deaths in the United States Distribution of Events by Day of Pandemic

In this paper, we analyze the progression of COVID-19 in the United States over a nearly one-year period beginning March 1, 2020, with a novel metric representing the partial-average day-of-event, where events are new cases and new deaths. The metric is calculated as a function of date and location to illustrate patterns of disease, showing growing or waning cases and deaths. The metrics enable the direct comparison of the time distribution of cases and deaths, revealing data coherence and revealing how patterns varied over a one-year period. We also compare different methods of estimating actual infections and deaths to get a better perspective on the timing and dynamics of the pandemic by state. We used three example states to graphically compare metrics as functions of date, and also compared statistics derived from all 50 states. Over the period studied, average case day and average death day vary by two to five months among the 50 states, depending on data source, with the earliest averages in New York and surrounding states, as well as Louisiana. The average day of death has preceded the average day of case in Centers for Disease Control (CDC) data for most states and most dates since June of 2020. For contrast, ″COVID-19 Projections″ more closely align deaths and cases, which are similarly distributed.

CM values of higher automorphic Green functions for orthogonal groups

Gross and Zagier conjectured that the CM values (of certain Hecke translates) of the automorphic Green function $$G_s(z_1,z_2)$$ G s ( z 1 , z 2 ) for the elliptic modular group at positive integral spectral parameter s are given by logarithms of algebraic numbers in suitable class fields. We prove a partial average version of this conjecture, where we sum in the first variable $$z_1$$ z 1 over all CM points of a fixed discriminant $$d_1$$ d 1 (twisted by a genus character), and allow in the second variable the evaluation at individual CM points of discriminant $$d_2$$ d 2 . This result is deduced from more general statements for automorphic Green functions on Shimura varieties associated with the group $${\text {GSpin}}(n,2)$$ GSpin ( n , 2 ) . We also use our approach to prove a Gross–Kohnen–Zagier theorem for higher Heegner divisors on Kuga–Sato varieties over modular curves.

Costs and usage of healthcare services before and after open bariatric surgery

CONTEXT AND OBJECTIVE: Morbidly obese individuals are major consumers of healthcare services, with high associated costs. Bariatric surgery is an alternative for improving these individuals' comorbidities. There are no studies comparing costs before and after bariatric surgery in Brazil. The aim here was to analyze results relating to healthcare usage and direct costs among morbidly obese patients undergoing bariatric surgery. DESIGN AND SETTING: Historical cohort study on patients receiving healthcare through a private health plan in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais. METHODS: All healthcare services and their associated costs were included in the analysis: hospitalization, hospital stay, elective outpatient consultations, emergency service usage and examinations. The analyses were treated as total when including the whole years before and after surgery, or partial when excluding the three-month periods adjacent to the operation. RESULTS: For 382 obese patients who underwent open bariatric operations, there were 53 hospitalizations one year before and 95 one year after surgery (P = 0.013). Gastrointestinal complications were the main indications for post-procedure hospitalizations. The partial average cost almost doubled after the operation (US$ 391.96 versus US$ 678.31). In subgroup analysis, the costs from patients with gastrointestinal complications were almost four times greater after bariatric surgery. Even in the subgroup without complications, the partial average cost remained significantly higher. CONCLUSION: Although bariatric surgery is the only path towards sustained weight loss for morbidly obese patients, the direct costs over the first year after the procedure are greater. Further studies, with longer follow-up, might elucidate whether long-term reversal of this trend would occur