Modelling the impact of poaching on metapopulation viability for data-limited species

We developed a spatially explicit simulation model of poaching behaviour to quantify the relative influence of the intensity, frequency, and spatial distribution of poaching on metapopulation viability. We integrated our model of poaching with a stochastic, habitat-based, spatially explicit population model, applied it to examine the impact of poaching on northern abalone (Haliotis kamtschatkana) metapopulation dynamics in Barkley Sound, British Columbia, Canada, and quantified model sensitivity to input parameters. While demographic parameters remained important in predicting extinction probabilities for northern abalone, our simulations indicate that the odds of extinction are twice as high when populations are subjected to poaching. Viability was influenced by poaching variables that affect the total number of individuals removed. Of these, poaching mortality was the most influential in predicting metapopulation viability, with each 0.1 increase in mortality rate resulting in 22.6% increase in the odds of extinction. By contrast, the location and spatial correlation of events were less important predictors of viability. When data are limited, simulation models of poaching combined with sensitivity analyses can be useful in informing management strategies and future research directions.

Implications of spatial contraction for density dependence and conservation in a depressed population of anadromous fish

Changes in density-independent mortality can alter the spatial extent of populations through patch extinction and colonization, and spatial contraction may alter population productivity and compensatory capacity. Here, we analyze a time series of steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss) abundance and examine the hypothesis that spatial contraction can decrease compensatory capacity. Over the last 20 years, steelhead in the Keogh River have declined by an order of magnitude because of a period of poor smolt-to-adult survival. Low abundance has been associated with more depressed production of out-migrating smolts than would be expected based on traditional models of compensatory dynamics. Patterns of juvenile density over time show changes in the spatial distribution of the population. We developed a spatially explicit population model to explore spatial structure and juvenile recruitment under varying marine survival. Results suggest that spatial contraction during a period of poor marine survival can strengthen density-dependent population regulation, reducing smolt production at the watershed scale. Our results highlight that spatial contraction can alter the fundamental density-dependent relationships that define population dynamics, recovery trajectories, and sustainable harvest levels of spatially structured populations.