The impact of Covid-19 vaccination on the Italian healthcare system: a scenario analysis

Introduction: The objective of this study is to estimate the effects of the national immunisation strategy for Covid-19 in Italy on the national healthcare system. Methods: An epidemiological scenario analysis was developed in order to simulate the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the Italian national healthcare system in 2021. Hospitalisations, ICU admissions and death rates were modelled based on 2020 data. We forecast the impact of the introduction of a primary prevention strategy on the national healthcare system by considering vaccine efficacy, availability of doses and potential population coverage over time. Results: In the absence of immunisation, between 57,000 and 63,000 additional deaths are forecast in 2021. Based on the assumptions underlying the two epidemiological scenarios from the 2020 data, our model predicts that cumulative hospital admissions in 2021 will range from 3.4 to 3.9 million. The deployment of vaccine immunisation has the potential to control the evolution of 2021 infections and avoid from 60 to 67 percent of deaths compared to not vaccinating. Conclusions: In order to inform Italian policymakers on delivering a mass vaccination programme, this study highlights and detects some key factors that must be controlled to ensure that immunisation targets will be met in reasonable time.

Recurrent venous leg ulcers: management in general practice

Venous leg ulcers commonly recur. Annemarie Brown highlights some self-care strategies that patients can use to reduce their risk Chronic venous leg ulcers are commonly seen in general practice and although healing rates for leg ulcers have improved, recurrence rates are high with around 60–70% reported to recur after healing. The primary prevention strategy is the life-long wearing of compression hosiery; however, compliance is low for several reasons including lack of understanding of the need to wear compression hosiery and difficulties applying and removing it. Self-care strategies such as physical exercise and mobility, leg elevation and appropriate skin care, can help to prevent recurrence of venous leg ulcers. Practice nurses are ideally placed to provide this advice, which can help improve patient's quality of life while reducing the financial burden of treating open ulceration for the NHS.

Changes in physical activity behavior and development of cardiovascular risk in children

Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: Foundation. Main funding source(s): Swiss National Foundation Background Prevention of cardiovascular (CV) disease should start early in life. The study aimed to investigate the association of changes in physical activity, sedentary behavior and cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) with development of body mass index (BMI), blood pressure (BP) and retinal microvascular health in children over four years. Methods In 2014, 391 children aged 6-8 years were screened, and thereof 262 children were reexamined after four years following standardized protocols. Retinal arteriolar (CRAE) and venular diameters were measured by a retinal vessel analyzer. CRF was objectively assessed by a 20m shuttle run, physical activity and sedentary behavior by use of a questionnaire. Results Children who achieved higher CRF levels reduced their BMI (β [95% CI] -0.35 [-0.46 to -0.25] kg/m2 per stage, P ≤ 0.001) and thereby developed wider CRAE (β [95% CI] 0.25 [0.24 to 0.48] µm per stage, P = 0.03) at follow-up. Moreover, children with elevated or high systolic BP at baseline, but lower levels of sedentary behavior during the observation period, had wider CRAE at follow-up (β [95% CI] -0.37 [-0.66 to -0.08] µm per 10 min/d, P = 0.013). Conclusion An increase of CRF over four years was associated with a reduced BMI and consequently wider retinal arterioles at follow-up. In children with elevated or high systolic BP, a reduction of sedentary behavior by merely 10 min per day significantly improved retinal microvascular health as a primary prevention strategy to promote childhood health and combat development of manifest CV disease later in life.

Curtailing Covid-19 on a Dollar-a-Day in Malawi: Implications for the Ongoing Pandemic

Utilizing population-based data from the Covid-19 phone survey (N = 2, 262) of the Malawi Longitudinal Study of Families and Health (MLSFH) collected during June 2nd–August 17th, 2020, we investigate behavioral, economic and social responses to Covid-19 and focus on the crucial role that community leadership and trust in institutions play towards shaping these responses. We argue that the effective response of Malawi to limit the spread of the virus was facilitated by the engagement of local leaders to mobilize communities to adapt and adhere to Covid-19 prevention strategies. Village heads (VHs) played pivotal role in shaping individual’s knowledge about the pandemic and the adaption of preventive health behaviors and were crucial for mitigating the negative economic and health consequences of the pandemic. We further show that trust in institutions is of particular importance in shaping individuals’ behavior during the pandemic, and these findings highlight the pivotal role of community leadership in fostering better compliance and adoption of public health measures essential to contain the virus. Overall, our findings point to distinctive patterns of pandemic response in a low-income sub-Saharan African rural population that emphasized local leadership as mediators of public health messages and policies. These lessons from the first pandemic wave remain relevant as in many low-income countries behavioral responses to Covid-19 will remain the primary prevention strategy for a foreseeable future.

Factors Associated With Emergency Medical Services Providers’ Acceptance of the Seasonal Influenza Vaccine

Objective: Influenza vaccination remains the most effective primary prevention strategy for seasonal influenza. This research explores the percentage of emergency medical services (EMS) clinicians who received the seasonal flu vaccine in a given year, along with their reasons for vaccine acceptance and potential barriers. Methods: A survey was distributed to all EMS clinicians in Virginia during the 2018-2019 influenza season. The primary outcome was vaccination status. Secondary outcomes were attitudes and perceptions toward influenza vaccination, along with patient care behaviors when treating an influenza patient. Results: Ultimately, 2796 EMS clinicians throughout Virginia completed the survey sufficiently for analysis. Participants were mean 43.5 y old, 60.7% male, and included the full range of certifications. Overall, 79.4% of surveyed EMS clinicians received a seasonal flu vaccine, 74% had previously had the flu, and 18% subjectively reported previous side effects from the flu vaccine. Overall, 54% of respondents believed their agency has influenza or respiratory specific plans or procedures. Conclusions: In a large, state-wide survey of EMS clinicians, overall influenza vaccination coverage was 79.4%. Understanding the underlying beliefs of EMS clinicians remains a critical priority for protecting these frontline clinicians. Agencies should consider practical policies, such as on-duty vaccination, to increase uptake.