Sea-ice retreat suggests re-organization of water mass transformation in the Nordic and Barents Seas

Water mass transformation in the Nordic and Barents Seas, triggered by air-sea heat fluxes, is an integral component of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). These regions are undergoing rapid warming, associated with a retreat in ice cover. Here we present an analysis covering 1950−2020 of the spatiotemporal variability of the air-sea heat fluxes along the region’s boundary currents, where water mass transformation impacts are large. We find there is an increase in the air-sea heat fluxes along these currents that is a function of the currents’ orientation relative to the axis of sea-ice change suggesting enhanced water mass transformation is occurring. Previous work has shown a reduction in heat fluxes in the interior of the Nordic Seas. As a result, a reorganization seems to be underway in where water mass transformation occurs, that needs to be considered when ascertaining how the AMOC will respond to a warming climate.

Water mass transformation and overturning circulation in the Arabian Gulf

We diagnose the ocean’s residual overturning circulation of the Arabian Gulf in a high-resolution model and interpret it in terms ofwater-mass transformation processes mediated by air-sea buoyancy fluxes and interior mixing. We attempt to rationalise the complex three-dimensional flow in terms of the superposition of a zonal (roughly along-axis) and meridional (transverse) overturning pattern. Rates of overturning and the seasonal cycle of air-sea fluxes sustaining them are quantified and ranked in order of importance. Air-sea fluxes dominate the budget so that, at zero order, the magnitude and sense of the overturning circulation can be inferred from air-sea fluxes, with interior mixing playing a lesser role. We find that wintertime latent heat fluxes dominate the water-mass transformation rate in the interior waters of the Gulf leading to a diapycnal volume flux directed toward higher densities. In the zonal overturning cell, fluid is drawn in from the Sea of Oman through the Strait of Hormuz, transformed and exits the Strait near the southern and bottom boundaries. Along the southern margin of the Gulf, evaporation plays an important role in the meridional overturning pattern inducing sinking there.

Attenuated carbon sequestration by Weddell Sea dense waters over the 21st century – an assessment with FESOM-REcoM

<p>Deep and bottom water formation regions have long been recognized to be efficient vectors for carbon transfer to depth, leading to carbon sequestration on time scales of centuries or more. Precursors of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) are formed on the Weddell Sea continental shelf as a consequence of buoyancy loss of surface waters at the ice-ocean or atmosphere-ocean interface, which suggests that any change in water mass transformation rates in this area affects global carbon cycling and hence climate. Many of the models previously used to assess AABW formation in present and future climates contained only crude representations of ocean-ice shelf interaction. Numerical simulations often featured spurious deep convection in the open ocean, and changes in carbon sequestration have not yet been assessed at all. Here, we present results from the global model FESOM-REcoM, which was run on a mesh with elevated grid resolution in the Weddell Sea and which includes an explicit representation of sea ice and ice shelves. Forcing this model with ssp585 scenario output from the AWI Climate Model, we assess changes over the 21<sup>st</sup> century in the formation and northward export of dense waters and the associated carbon fluxes within and out of the Weddell Sea. We find that the northward transport of dense deep waters (σ<sub>2</sub>>37.2 kg m<sup>-3</sup> below 2000 m) across the SR4 transect, which connects the tip of the Antarctic Peninsula with the eastern Weddell Sea, declines from 4 Sv to 2.9 Sv by the year 2100. Concurrently, despite the simulated continuous increase in surface ocean CO<sub>2</sub> uptake in the Weddell Sea over the 21<sup>st</sup> century, the carbon transported northward with dense deep waters declines from 3.5 Pg C yr<sup>-1</sup> to 2.5 Pg C yr<sup>-1</sup>, demonstrating the dominant role of dense water formation rates for carbon sequestration. Using the water mass transformation framework, we find that south of SR4, the formation of downwelling dense waters declines from 3.5 Sv in the 1990s to 1.6 Sv in the 2090s, a direct result of the 18% lower sea-ice formation in the area, the increased presence of modified Warm Deep Water on the continental shelf, and 50% higher ice shelf basal melt rates. Given that the reduced formation of downwelling water masses additionally occurs at lighter densities in FESOM-REcoM in the 2090s, this will directly impact the depth at which any additional oceanic carbon uptake is stored, with consequences for long-term carbon sequestration.</p>

Evolving air-sea interaction due to sea-ice retreat points to a re-organisation of water mass transformation in the Nordic and Barents Seas

<p>The Nordic and Barents Seas play a critical role in the climate system resulting from water mass transformation, triggered by intense air-sea heat fluxes, that is an integral component of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). These seas are undergoing rapid warming, associated with a retreat in ice cover. Here we present a novel analysis, covering the period 1950-2020, of the spatiotemporal variability of the air-sea heat fluxes along the region’s boundary currents, where the impacts on the water mass transformation are large.  We find that the variability is a function of the relative orientation of the current and the axis of sea-ice change that can result in up to a doubling of the heat fluxes over the period of interest. This implies enhanced water mass transformation is occurring along these currents. In contrast, previous work has shown a reduction in fluxes in the interior sites of the Nordic Seas, where ocean convection is also observed, suggesting that a reorganization may be underway in the nature of the water mass transformation, that needs to be considered when ascertaining how the AMOC will respond to a warming climate.</p>

Drivers of the water mass transformations that set the overturning circulation in the subpolar North Atlantic

<p>The OSNAP (Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program) array at ~60°N has provided new and unprecedented insight into the strength and variability of the meridional overturning circulation in the subpolar North Atlantic. OSNAP has identified the region of the subpolar North Atlantic east of Greenland as a key region for the water mass transformation and densification that sets the strength and variability of the overturning circulation. Here, we will investigate the drivers of this water mass transformation and their roles in driving the overturning circulation at OSNAP. Using a water mass analysis on both model-based and observational-based datasets, we isolate diathermal (across surfaces of constant temperature) and diahaline (across surfaces of constant salinity) transformations due to air-sea buoyancy fluxes, and mixing. We show that the time-mean overturning strength is set by both the air-sea buoyancy fluxes and the strength of subsurface mixing. This balance is apparent on a seasonal timescale, where we resolve large seasonal fluctuations in the both the air-sea buoyancy fluxes and mixing. The residual of this seasonal cycle then corresponds to the mean overturning strength. On interannual timescales, mixing becomes the dominant driver of variability in the overturning circulation. To determine the location of these water mass transformations and the dynamical processes responsible for the mixing-driven variability, our water mass analysis is projected onto geographical coordinates.</p>

The Irminger Sea – air-ice-ocean interactions in a 5 km coupled simulation with ICON-ESM

<p>Recent observations suggest that deep convection and water mass transformation in the Irminger Sea southeast of Greenland, together with overflows from the Nordic Seas, may be more important for the variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) than the Labrador Sea. The preconditioning for and triggering of deep convection in the Irminger Sea is strongly associated with topography-induced mesoscale wind phenomena, such as Greenland tip jets, katabatic winds and marine cold air outbreaks. However, the resolution of current coupled climate models is too coarse to capture all the properties of these wind systems or to capture them at all. Here we explore the air-ice-ocean interactions induced by mesoscale wind phenomena in the Irminger Sea in a 1-year global coupled 5km simulation with ICON-ESM. The model is able to capture the complex interactions of the wind field and the ocean. We find that strong downward katabatic winds cause substantial heat loss from the Irminger Sea in addition to Greenland tip jets. The outflowing katabatic winds form narrow streaks of cold air that extend across the entire Irminger basin from southeast Greenland to Iceland. In addition, cold air outbreaks from the sea ice lead to the genesis of mesoscale cyclones, which in turn can cause Greenland tip jets before moving off to the east. All these wind phenomena cause substantial heat loss that preconditions the ocean for deep convection. If these wind systems are not resolved, the water mass transformation in the Irminger Sea could be too weak, contributing to why the Labrador Sea dominates AMOC variability in models. We conclude that resolving these mesoscale wind systems in an Earth system model could have significant implications for deep convection and water mass transformation in the Irminger Sea, and thus for AMOC variability.</p>