Important factors in the tracking of tropical cyclones in operational models

Multiple configurations of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory vortex tracker are tested to determine a setup that produces the best representation of a model forecast tropical cyclone center fix for the purpose of providing track guidance with the highest degree of accuracy and availability. Details of the tracking algorithms are provided, including descriptions of both the Barnes analysis used for center-fixing most variables and a separate scheme used for center-fixing wind circulation. The tracker is tested by running multiple configurations on all storms from the 2015-2017 hurricane seasons in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific Basins using forecasts from two operational National Weather Service models, the Global Forecast System (GFS) and the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) model. A configuration that tracks only 850 mb geopotential height has the smallest forecast track errors of any configuration based on an individual parameter. However, a configuration composed of the mean of eleven parameters outperforms any of the configurations that are based on individual parameters. Configurations composed of subsets of the eleven parameters and including both mass and momentum variables provide results comparable to or better than the full 11-parameter configuration. In particular, a subset configuration with thickness variables excluded generally outperforms the 11-parameter mean, while one composed of variables from only the 850 mb and near-surface layers performs nearly as well as the 11-parameter mean. Tracker configurations composed of multiple variables are more reliable in providing guidance through the end of a forecast period than are tracker configurations based on individual parameters.

Global Scatterometer Observations of the Structure of Tropical Cyclone Wind Fields

A very large database containing 24 years of scatterometer passes is analyzed to investigate the surface wind fields within tropical cyclones. The analysis confirms the left–right asymmetry of the wind field with the strongest winds directly to the right of the tropical cyclone center (Northern Hemisphere). At values greater than 2 times the radius to maximum winds, the asymmetry is approximately equal to the storm velocity of forward movement. Observed wind inflow angle (i.e., storm motion not subtracted) is shown to vary both radially and azimuthally within the tropical cyclone. The smallest observed wind inflow angles are found in the left-front quadrant with the largest values in the right-rear quadrant. As the velocity of forward movement increases and the central pressure decreases, observed inflow angles ahead of the storm decrease and those behind the storm increase. In the right-rear quadrant, the observed inflow angle increases with radius from the storm center. In all other quadrants, the observed inflow angle is approximately constant as a function of radial distance.

Tropical Cyclone Center Positions from Sequences of HDSS Sondes Deployed along High-Altitude Overpasses

A method is developed to calculate the zero-wind center (ZWC) position from a sequence of Yankee High Density Sounding System (HDSS) dropwindsondes deployed during a high-altitude overpass of a tropical cyclone. The approach is similar to the Willoughby and Chelmow technique in that it utilizes the intersections of bearings normal to the wind directions across the center to locate the ZWC position. Average wind directions over 1-km layers are calculated from the accurate global positioning system (GPS) latitude–longitude positions as the HDSS sonde falls from the 60 000-ft flight level of the NASA WB-57 to the ocean surface. An iterative procedure is used to also account for the storm translation, which is necessary to put these high-frequency HDSS observations into a storm-relative coordinate system. The Tropical Cyclone Intensity (TCI-15) mission into Hurricane Joaquin on 4 October 2015 is examined here. The ZWC positions from two center overpasses indicate the vortex tilts from 1- to 10-km elevation and rotates cyclonically with height.

Revisiting the steering principal of tropical cyclone motion in a numerical experiment

The steering principle of tropical cyclone motion has been applied to tropical cyclone forecasting and research for nearly 100 years. Two fundamental questions remain unanswered. One is why the steering flow plays a dominant role in tropical cyclone motion, and the other is when tropical cyclone motion deviates considerably from the steering. A high-resolution numerical experiment was conducted with the tropical cyclone in a typical large-scale monsoon trough over the western North Pacific. The simulated tropical cyclone experiences two eyewall replacement processes. Based on the potential vorticity tendency (PVT) diagnostics, this study demonstrates that the conventional steering, which is calculated over a certain radius from the tropical cyclone center in the horizontal and a deep pressure layer in the vertical, plays a dominant role in tropical cyclone motion since the contributions from other processes are largely cancelled out due to the coherent structure of tropical cyclone circulation. Resulting from the asymmetric dynamics of the tropical cyclone inner core, the trochoidal motion around the mean tropical cyclone track cannot be accounted for by the conventional steering. The instantaneous tropical cyclone motion can considerably deviate from the conventional steering that approximately accounts for the combined effect of the contribution of the advection of the symmetric potential vorticity component by the asymmetric flow and the contribution from the advection of the wave-number-one potential vorticity component by the symmetric flow.