Yellow fever in Asia–a risk analysis

Background There is concern about the risk of yellow fever (YF) establishment in Asia, owing to rising numbers of urban outbreaks in endemic countries and globalisation. Following an outbreak in Angola in 2016, YF cases were introduced into China. Prior to this, YF had never been recorded in Asia, despite climatic suitability and the presence of mosquitoes. An outbreak in Asia could result in widespread fatalities and huge economic impact. Therefore, quantifying the potential risk of YF outbreaks in Asia is a public health priority. Methods Using international flight data and YF incidence estimates from 2016, we quantified the risk of YF introduction via air travel into Asia. In locations with evidence of a competent mosquito population, the potential for autochthonous YF transmission was estimated using a temperature-dependent model of the reproduction number and a branching process model assuming a negative binomial distribution. Results In total, 25 cities across Asia were estimated to be at risk of receiving at least one YF viraemic traveller during 2016. At their average temperatures, we estimated the probability of autochthonous transmission to be <50% in all cities, which was primarily due to the limited number of estimated introductions that year. Conclusion Despite the rise in air travel, we found low support for travel patterns between YF endemic countries and Asia resulting in autochthonous transmission during 2016. This supports the historic absence of YF in Asia and suggests it could be due to a limited number of introductions in previous years. Future increases in travel volumes or YF incidence can increase the number of introductions and the risk of autochthonous transmission. Given the high proportion of asymptomatic or mild infections and the challenges of YF surveillance, our model can be used to estimate the introduction and outbreak risk and can provide useful information to surveillance systems.

A comprehensive analysis on nanostructured materials in a thermoelectric micro-system based on geometric shape, segmentation structure and load resistance

In this study, we report the novel energy behavior of high-performance nanostructured materials in a segmented thermoelectric micro-generator (TEG). Several physical elements of the materials must be considered to determine their behavior in the thermoelectric energy conversion: temperature dependence of material properties, geometric structure, segmentation, and the symmetry of each or both p-type and n-type nanostructure semiconductor thermoelements. Recently, many efforts have reported effects independent on the thermoelectric performance of semiconductor materials. In this work, exhaustive research on the performance of high-performance nanostructured materials in a segmented thermoelectric micro-generator (TEG) was carried out. Our results show the efficiency and output power of the TEG using the temperature-dependent model, i.e., a variable internal resistance for a load resistance of the system. Our approach allows us to analyze symmetrical and asymmetric geometries, showing maximum and minimum peaks values in the performance of the TEG for specific $$\gamma $$ γ values. The performance of the TEG is improved by about $$6\%$$ 6 % and $$7\%$$ 7 % , for efficiency, and output power, respectively, considering a trapezoidal geometric shape in the 2p-3n segmented system, compared with the conventional rectangular shape.