Environmental drivers of the abundance and distribution of forage fishes on the Northeast US shelf, with a particular emphasis on northern sand lance

Small pelagic fishes, also termed forage fishes, represent a critical link between secondary production and myriad top predators in marine ecosystems, including the Northeast US shelf. In this dissertation, I analyze the drivers of forage fish distribution throughout the Northeast US shelf and the drivers of the abundance of the ecologically important northern sand lance. Chapter 2 examines the basic ecology of northern sand lance and uses these insights to identify mechanistic drivers of their abundance. I then explore different scenarios of these drivers to project sand lance abundance through the end of the 21st century, which appears precarious for adult sand lance unless current trajectories change. Chapter 3 analyzes the environmental drivers of the distribution of the six dominant, offshore forage fish species (northern sand lance, Atlantic herring, alewife, blueback herring, Atlantic mackerel, and Atlantic butterfish) on the Northeast US shelf to elucidate the role of environmental covariates in shelf occupancy by these taxa. The results of this chapter indicate shelf occupancy of butterfish and Atlantic mackerel are increasing through time while occupancy of sand lance is decreasing with time. The occurrence of most of these species is also moving deeper and northward with time. Chapter 4 assesses the source-sink dynamics of three sand lance hotspots through Lagrangian particle tracking models simulating larval sand lance transport. Connectivity varies among these hotspots with Georges Bank and Stellwagen Bank having notable retention while the Great South Channel relies on larvae from other hotspots. Retention on Stellwagen Bank and Georges Bank are linked to strong wind events during the larval period of sand lance. Collectively, this dissertation improves our understanding of the dynamics driving variability in the Northeast US shelf forage fish complex, particularly for northern sand lance.

A test of the provisioning hypothesis of recruitment control in Georges Bank haddock

The haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus) stock of the Georges Bank region of the US Northeast Continental Shelf displays a pattern of large, episodic recruitments. Among the hypothesized controlling mechanisms is the idea that recruitment events are related to provisioning of pre-spawning haddock by the fall bloom the year before. With the occurrence of a recent large recruitment event in 2013, it would be prudent to retest this hypothesis. Fall bloom magnitude was positively correlated (r=0.645, p=0.005) with haddock survivor ratio (recruits per spawning biomass) including data from the 2013 recruitment. This relationship identifies a pathway of bottom up control of a resource species, thus focusing concern over recent changes in lower trophic level productivity.

A Double-Thermostad Warm-Core Ring of the Gulf Stream

An unusual double-thermostad warm-core ring of the Gulf Stream was discovered in the Slope Sea, south of Georges Bank, during the R/V Endeavor cruise 578 in May 2016. The ring’s stratification was peculiar as it included two thermostads at, respectively, 100–200 m (core T = 18.14°C, S = 36.52) and 250–500 m (core T = 16.70°C, S = 36.35). Extensive use of satellite data (SST imagery and SSH maps) allowed the life history of this ring to be reconstructed, with independent SST and SSH data mutually corroborating each other. The double-thermostad ring was formed by vertical alignment of two preexisting warm-core anticyclonic rings of the Gulf Stream. The first ring spawned by the Gulf Stream in February has cooled by ~2°C before merging in April with the second ring spawned by the Gulf Stream in March. During vertical alignment of these rings, the warmer ring overrode the colder ring, thereby forming the double-thermostad ring surveyed in May 2016. From ADCP sections through the ring, the upper and lower thermostads had different core relative vorticities of −0.65f and −0.77f, respectively, where f is the local Coriolis parameter. An in-depth literature survey has confirmed that this is the first report of a double-thermostad warm-core ring of the Gulf Stream and one of the best-documented cases of vertical alignment of two eddies ever observed in the World Ocean.