Deterministic-Probabilistic Approach to Predict Lightning-Caused Forest Fires in Mounting Areas

Forest fires from lightnings create a tense situation in various regions of states with forested areas. It is noted that in mountainous areas this is especially important in view of the geophysical processes of lightning activity. The aim of the study is to develop a deterministic-probabilistic approach to predicting forest fire danger due to lightning activity in mountainous regions. To develop a mathematical model, the main provisions of the theory of probability and mathematical statistics, as well as the general theory of heat transfer, were used. The scientific novelty of the research is due to the complex use of probabilistic criteria and deterministic mathematical models of tree ignition by a cloud-to-ground lightning discharge. The paper presents probabilistic criteria for predicting forest fire danger, taking into account the lightning activity, meteorological data, and forest growth conditions, as well as deterministic mathematical models of ignition of deciduous and coniferous trees by electric current of a cloud-to-ground lightning discharge. The work uses synthetic data on the discharge parameters and characteristics of the forest-covered area, which correspond to the forest fire situation in the Republic of Altay and the Republic of Buryatia (Russian Federation). The dependences of the probability for occurrence of forest fires on various parameters have been obtained.

An Overview of Probabilistic Dimensioning of Frequency Restoration Reserves with a Focus on the Greek Electricity Market

The dynamic dimensioning of frequency restoration reserves based on probabilistic criteria is becoming increasingly relevant in European power grid operations, following the guidelines of European legislation. This article compares dynamic dimensioning based on k-means clustering to static dimensioning on a case study of the Greek electricity market. It presents a model of system imbalances which aims to capture various realistic features of the stochastic behavior of imbalances, including skewed distributions, the dependencies of the imbalance distribution on various imbalance drivers, and the contributions of idiosyncratic noise to system imbalances. The imbalance model was calibrated in order to be consistent with historical reserve requirements in the Greek electricity market. The imbalance model was then employed in order to compare dynamic dimensioning based on probabilistic criteria to static dimensioning. The analysis revealed potential benefits of dynamic dimensioning for the Greek electricity market, which include a reduction in average reserve requirements and the preservation of a constant risk profile due to the adaptive nature of probabilistic dimensioning.

Safety of Nuclear Power Plants with Respect to the Fault Displacement Hazard

The hazard of permanent ground displacements/deformations can challenge the safety of the nuclear power plants. Increasing knowledge of the hazard and development of methods for structure–fault–displacement interaction motivates the designing of nuclear power plants for permanent ground displacement instead of abandoning the sites that could be affected by this kind of hazard. For the design basis, permanent ground displacement should be defined at the hazard level that complies with the probabilistic criteria for accounting for the natural hazards in the design that also ensure compliance with probabilistic safety criteria. In this paper, a procedure is proposed for the definition of the design basis permanent ground displacement that is based on the deaggregation of seismic design basis hazard. The definition of the displacement for the margin evaluation is also proposed. The feasibility of safe design is also demonstrated for the proposed definition of design basis hazard via qualitative judgement on the sensitivity of the structures, systems and components ensuring the fundamental safety functions with respect to the permanent ground displacement that is supported by existing case studies.

The explanationist revolution in evidence law

According to Allen and Pardo, the field of evidence law has experienced a revolution -in Kuhn's sense- from probabilism to explanationism, which they identify with the relative plausibility theory. The explanationist revolution, argue Allen and Pardo, has placed explanationist -rather than probabilistic criteria- at the core of the fact-finding process and, in contrast to probabilism, has advanced a comparative understanding of the theory of legal proof. This paper develops an alternative interpretation of the explanationist revolution in evidence law. First, it elaborates on the concept of legal revolution and argues that it involves a kind of shift that is best characterized as a Hacking -rather than a Kuhnean- type of revolution and, thus, as an ‘emplacement’ instead of a ‘replacement’ revolution. Second, it claims that the shift from probabilism to explanationism involves a deep -genuinely revolutionary- change in the conception of rationality that is taken to govern the processes of evidence and legal proof. Other differences between probabilistim and explanationism, such as those mentioned by Allen and Pardo, are not central to the revolutionary shift, but rather emanate from this basic distinction. Last, it argues that the explanationist paradigm embraces, but cannot be reduced to, the relative plausibility theory; the identification of explanationism with the relative plausibility theory occludes the richness and possibilities harboured by the new, explanationist, paradigm.