Study of Argumentative Causal Relationship between Poverty and Population Growth in Sudan within the period (1980–2019) by using Vector Auto Regressive Model (VAR): دراسة جدلية العلاقة السببية بين نمو السكان والفقر في السودان خلال الفترة (1980- 2019) باستخدام نموذج الانحدار الذاتي (VAR)

This study aimed to determine the form of the relationship and impact that the population growth in Sudan could have increased on poverty rate. To achieve this goal, a standard model for the relationship between the two previous variables was formulated and constructed during the period 1980-2019. Descriptive Analytical method was used in theoretical side of the study and tools of econometrics in analysis was used in practical side (VAR). The study assumed existence of direct relationship having a positive impact statistically between the population growth and poverty in Sudan. A standard model of non-significant impact have been obtained, whereby, the estimation results of Vector Auto Regressive showed that, there is no mutual significant impact between the poverty and population growth during term of the study. However, this result support results of mutual causality relationship both the variables. The study has recommended the necessity of controlling the population growth by legal ways in order to addressing the sources of defection which has been presented by the population growth.

A Generalized Estimating Equations Approach for Modeling Spatially Clustered Data

Clustering in spatial data is very common phenomena in various fields such as disease mapping, ecology, environmental science and so on. Analysis of spatially clustered data should be different from conventional analysis of spatial data because of the nature of clusters in the data. Because it is expected that the observations of same cluster are more similar than the observations from different clusters. In this study, a method has been proposed for the analysis of spatially clustered areal data based on generalized estimating equations which were originally developed for analyzing longitudinal data. The performance of the model for known clusters is tested in terms of how well it estimates the regression parameters and how well it captures the true spatial process. These results are presented and compared with the conditional auto-regressive model which is the most frequently used spatial model. In the simulation study, the proposed generalized estimating equations approach yields better results than the popular conditional auto-regressive model from the both perspectives of parameter estimation and spatial process capturing. A real life data on the vitamin A supplement coverage among postpartum women in Bangladesh is then analyzed for demonstration of the method. The existing divisional clustering behavior of vitamin A supplement coverage in Bangladesh is identified more accurately by the proposed approach than that by the conditional auto-regressive model.

ECG Analysis for HRV Detection

In this paper an algorithm is proposed for estimation of HRV with better accuracy and results. We are making use of Auto Regressive Model (AR Model) for the estimation. Since ECG wave is also contaminated with a lot of noise such as Power Line Interference (PLI), EMG and just some common artifacts like breathing disturbance’s, so to filter out all this noise from the wave we are using Cumulant based AR model for filtering the wave. Using IoT we will later use real time ECG waves to estimate HRV.

Estimation of Excess Mortality and Years of Life Lost to COVID-19 in Norway and Sweden between March and November 2020

We estimate the weekly excess all-cause mortality in Norway and Sweden, the years of life lost (YLL) attributed to COVID-19 in Sweden, and the significance of mortality displacement. We computed the expected mortality by taking into account the declining trend and the seasonality in mortality in the two countries over the past 20 years. From the excess mortality in Sweden in 2019/20, we estimated the YLL attributed to COVID-19 using the life expectancy in different age groups. We adjusted this estimate for possible displacement using an auto-regressive model for the year-to-year variations in excess mortality. We found that excess all-cause mortality over the epidemic year, July 2019 to July 2020, was 517 (95%CI = (12, 1074)) in Norway and 4329 [3331, 5325] in Sweden. There were 255 COVID-19 related deaths reported in Norway, and 5741 in Sweden, that year. During the epidemic period of 11 March–11 November, there were 6247 reported COVID-19 deaths and 5517 (4701, 6330) excess deaths in Sweden. We estimated that the number of YLL attributed to COVID-19 in Sweden was 45,850 [13,915, 80,276] without adjusting for mortality displacement and 43,073 (12,160, 85,451) after adjusting for the displacement accounted for by the auto-regressive model. In conclusion, we find good agreement between officially recorded COVID-19 related deaths and all-cause excess deaths in both countries during the first epidemic wave and no significant mortality displacement that can explain those deaths.

The colour stability of crystallized acetyl resin material in comparison to other restorative materials. An in-vitro study

Aim To investigate the colour stability of Crystalized Acetyl Resin, in comparison to three other aesthetic restorative materials, when immersed in different staining aqueous solutions. Materials and methods Fifteen disc-shaped specimens each, of the four materials tested, were immersed in either DW or 4 staining solutions. CIE L*a*b* values were recorded using a digital spectrophotometer on a weekly basis for 4 weeks. Data were compared using three- way/two-way ANOVA along with auto-regressive model. Results Two-way Anova indicates that there is a significant colour change in all materials over time when immersed in the different staining solutions. Auto-regressive model showed that the colour change in each successive week was statistically significant (P < 0.001). Conclusion The most staining solution affecting the materials during this study was black coffee. Within the limitation of this study, Acetyl Resin was the most colour stable material among the other materials.