On assessing excess mortality in Germany during the COVID-19 pandemic

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is associated with a very high number of casualties in the general population. Assessing the exact magnitude of this number is a non-trivial problem, as relying only on officially reported COVID-19 associated fatalities runs the risk of incurring in several kinds of biases. One of the ways to approach the issue is to compare overall mortality during the pandemic with expected mortality computed using the observed mortality figures of previous years. In this paper, we build on existing methodology and propose two ways to compute expected as well as excess mortality, namely at the weekly and at the yearly level. Particular focus is put on the role of age, which plays a central part in both COVID-19-associated and overall mortality. We illustrate our methods by making use of age-stratified mortality data from the years 2016 to 2020 in Germany to compute age group-specific excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

Racial/Ethnic and Age Differences in the Direct and Indirect Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on US Mortality

Objectives. To estimate the direct and indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on overall, race/ethnicity‒specific, and age-specific mortality in 2020 in the United States. Methods. Using surveillance data, we modeled expected mortality, compared it to observed mortality, and estimated the share of “excess” mortality that was indirectly attributable to the pandemic versus directly attributed to COVID-19. We present absolute risks and proportions of total pandemic-related mortality, stratified by race/ethnicity and age. Results. We observed 16.6 excess deaths per 10 000 US population in 2020; 84% were directly attributed to COVID-19. The indirect effects of the pandemic accounted for 16% of excess mortality, with proportions as low as 0% among adults aged 85 years and older and more than 60% among those aged 15 to 44 years. Indirect causes accounted for a higher proportion of excess mortality among racially minoritized groups (e.g., 32% among Black Americans and 23% among Native Americans) compared with White Americans (11%). Conclusions. The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality and health disparities are underestimated when only deaths directly attributed to COVID-19 are considered. An equitable public health response to the pandemic should also consider its indirect effects on mortality. (Am J Public Health. 2022;112(1):154–164. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2021.306541 )

Impact of the early COVID-19 pandemic on outcomes in a rural Ugandan neonatal unit: A retrospective cohort study

Background During the early COVID-19 pandemic travel in Uganda was tightly restricted which affected demand for and access to care for pregnant women and small and sick newborns. In this study we describe changes to neonatal outcomes in one rural central Ugandan newborn unit before and during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods We report outcomes from admissions captured in an electronic dataset of a well-established newborn unit before (September 2019 to March 2020) and during the early COVID-19 period (April–September 2020) as well as two seasonally matched periods one year prior. We report excess mortality as the percent change in mortality over what was expected based on seasonal trends. Findings The study included 2,494 patients, 567 of whom were admitted during the early COVID-19 period. During the pandemic admissions decreased by 14%. Patients born outside the facility were older on admission than previously (median 1 day of age vs. admission on the day of birth). There was an increase in admissions with birth asphyxia (22% vs. 15% of patients). Mortality was higher during COVID-19 than previously [16% vs. 11%, p = 0.017]. Patients born outside the facility had a relative increase of 55% above seasonal expected mortality (21% vs. 14%, p = 0.028). During this period patients had decreased antenatal care, restricted transport and difficulty with expenses and support. The hospital had difficulty with maternity staffing and supplies. There was significant community and staff fear of COVID-19. Interpretation Increased newborn mortality during the early COVID-19 pandemic at this facility was likely attributed to disruptions affecting maternal and newborn demand for, access to and quality of perinatal healthcare. Lockdown conditions and restrictions to public transit were significant barriers to maternal and newborn wellbeing, and require further focus by national and regional health officials.

Inequalities in excess premature mortality in England during the COVID-19 pandemic: a cross-sectional analysis of cumulative excess mortality by area deprivation and ethnicity

ObjectivesTo examine magnitude of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on inequalities in premature mortality in England by deprivation and ethnicity.DesignA statistical model to estimate increased mortality in population subgroups during the COVID-19 pandemic by comparing observed with expected mortality in each group based on trends over the previous 5 years.SettingInformation on deaths registered in England since 2015 was used, including age, sex, area of residence and cause of death. Ethnicity was obtained from Hospital Episode Statistics records linked to death data.ParticipantsPopulation study of England, including all 569 824 deaths from all causes registered between 21 March 2020 and 26 February 2021.Main outcome measuresExcess mortality in each subgroup over and above the number expected based on trends in mortality in that group over the previous 5 years.ResultsThe gradient in excess mortality by area deprivation was greater in the under 75s (the most deprived areas had 1.25 times as many deaths as expected, least deprived 1.14) than in all ages (most deprived had 1.24 times as many deaths as expected, least deprived 1.20). Among the black and Asian groups, all area deprivation quintiles had significantly larger excesses than white groups in the most deprived quintiles and there were no clear gradients across quintiles. Among the white group, only those in the most deprived quintile had more excess deaths than deaths directly involving COVID-19.ConclusionThe COVID-19 pandemic has widened inequalities in premature mortality by area deprivation. Among those under 75, the direct and indirect effects of the pandemic on deaths have disproportionately impacted ethnic minority groups irrespective of area deprivation, and the white group the most deprived areas. Statistics limited to deaths directly involving COVID-19 understate the pandemic’s impact on inequalities by area deprivation and ethnic group at younger ages.

Abstract 11781: Association of Rapid Response Teams With Hospital Mortality in Medicare Patients

Background: Rapid response teams (RRT) have been promoted as a strategy to reduce unexpected hospital deaths, as they are designed to evaluate and treat patients experiencing sudden decline. However, evidence to support their effectiveness in reducing in-hospital mortality remains uncertain. Methods: Using data from 56 hospitals participating in Get With The Guidelines Resuscitation linked to Medicare, we calculated annual rates of case-mix adjusted mortality for each hospital during 2000-2014. We constructed a hierarchical interrupted time series model to determine whether implementation of a RRT was associated with a reduction in mortality that was larger than expected based on pre-implementation trends alone. Results: Over the study period, the median annual number of Medicare admissions across study hospitals was 5214 (range: 408-18,398). The median duration of the pre-implementation period was 7.6 years comprising ~2.5 million admissions, and the median duration of the post-implementation period was 7.2 years comprising ~2.6 million admissions. Before implementation of RRTs, hospital mortality was already decreasing by 2.7% annually (Figure). Implementation of RRTs was not associated with change in mortality in the initial year of implementation (RR for model intercept: 0.98; 95% CI 0.94-1.02; P= 0.30) or in the mortality trend over time (RR for model slope: 1.01 per-year; 95% CI 0.99-1.02; P =0.30). Within individual hospitals, a RRT was associated with a significantly lower than expected mortality at 4 (7.1%) of hospitals, and significantly higher than expected mortality at 2 (3.6%), when compared to pre-implementation trends. Conclusion: Among a diverse sample of U.S. hospitals, we found that the implementation of a RRT was not associated with a significant reduction in hospital mortality. Given their prevalence in most U.S. hospitals, further studies are needed to understand best practices in composition, design, and implementation of RRTs.

EPID-11. A POPULATION STUDY OF CLINICAL TRIAL ACCRUAL FOR WOMEN AND MINORITIES IN NEURO-ONCOLOGY FOLLOWING THE NIH REVITALIZATION ACT

INTRODUCTION The NIH Revitalization Act, implemented 29 years ago, set to improve the representation of women and minorities in clinical trials. In this study, we investigate the progress made in neuro-oncology in all phase therapeutic clinical trials for neuro-epithelial central nervous system tumors in comparison to their demographic-specific age-adjusted disease incidence and mortality. METHODS Registry study of all published clinical trials for World Health Organization (WHO) defined neuro-epithelial CNS tumors between January 2000 and December 2019. Study participants for trials were obtained from PubMed and ClinicalTrials.gov. Population-based data from the CBTRUS for incidence analyses. SEER-18 Incidence-Based Mortality data was used for mortality analysis. Descriptive statistics, Fisher exact, and c2 tests were used to analyze the data. RESULTS Among 662 published clinical trial articles representing 49, 907 accrued participants, 62.5% of study participants were men and 37.5% were women (P< 0.0001) representing a mortality specific over-accrual for men (P= 0.001) and under-accrual for women (P= 0.001). Whites, Asians, Blacks, and Hispanics represented 91.7%, 1.5%, 2.6%, and 1.7% of trial participants. Compared with their US cancer mortality, Blacks (47% of expected mortality, P=.008), Hispanics (17% of expected mortality, P< .001) and Asians (33% of expected mortality, P< .001) were underrepresented compared with Whites (114% of expected mortality, P< .001). CONCLUSIONS Nearly 30 years since the Revitalization Act, minorities and women are consistently underrepresented when compared with their demographic-specific incidence and mortality in therapeutic clinical trials for neuroepithelial tumors. This study provides a framework for investigating cancer clinical trial accrual and offers guidance regarding workforce factors associated with enrollment of vulnerable patients.

Hospitals with and without neurosurgery: a comparative study evaluating the outcome of patients with traumatic brain injury

Background We leveraged the data of the international CREACTIVE consortium to investigate whether the outcome of traumatic brain injury (TBI) patients admitted to intensive care units (ICU) in hospitals without on-site neurosurgical capabilities (no-NSH) would differ had the same patients been admitted to ICUs in hospitals with neurosurgical capabilities (NSH). Methods The CREACTIVE observational study enrolled more than 8000 patients from 83 ICUs. Adult TBI patients admitted to no-NSH ICUs within 48 h of trauma were propensity-score matched 1:3 with patients admitted to NSH ICUs. The primary outcome was the 6-month extended Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS-E), while secondary outcomes were ICU and hospital mortality. Results A total of 232 patients, less than 5% of the eligible cohort, were admitted to no-NSH ICUs. Each of them was matched to 3 NSH patients, leading to a study sample of 928 TBI patients where the no-NSH and NSH groups were well-balanced with respect to all of the variables included into the propensity score. Patients admitted to no-NSH ICUs experienced significantly higher ICU and in-hospital mortality. Compared to the matched NSH ICU admissions, their 6-month GOS-E scores showed a significantly higher prevalence of upper good recovery for cases with mild TBI and low expected mortality risk at admission, along with a progressively higher incidence of poor outcomes with increased TBI severity and mortality risk. Conclusions In our study, centralization of TBI patients significantly impacted short- and long-term outcomes. For TBI patients admitted to no-NSH centers, our results suggest that the least critically ill can effectively be managed in centers without neurosurgical capabilities. Conversely, the most complex patients would benefit from being treated in high-volume, neuro-oriented ICUs.

Abstract 1122‐000208: Imaging Characteristics for Post Stroke Delirium

Introduction : Delirium after acute ischemic stroke (AIS) is a common clinical occurrence, present in 13–48% of patients. Post‐stroke delirium is associated with longer hospital admissions, worse functional outcomes, and increased mortality in the short term and has been associated with worse long‐term outcomes. Prior studies have shown right‐sided strokes are more associated with delirium, but very few other imaging characteristics of post‐stroke delirium have been described. We conducted a prospective study evaluating imaging characteristics for patients with delirium. Methods : Between Sept 2019 and June 2021, patients diagnosed with AIS within 48 hrs of stroke onset were prospectively evaluated for delirium using the Confusion Assessment Method (CAM)‐ICU daily for the first eight days of their hospital stay. Patients with severe stroke and expected mortality within the first month at the time of admission or with severe aphasia unable to follow commands were excluded. Data regarding demographics, comorbidities, hospital stay, stroke metrics, lab work and medications were analyzed. Imaging characteristics were adjudicated by authors based on either the patient’s first MRI or the 24 hr CT after admission. Infarct size measured based on ABC/2 formula based on diffusion‐weighted imaging on MRI or stroke appearance on CT. Results : Over the course of 12 non‐consecutive months, we evaluated 213 patients, of which 177 could be assessed with the CAM‐ICU. Delirium was present in 88 (49.7%). There were no statistically significant differences in age, gender, race, co‐morbidities, or TOAST etiology among patients with and without delirium (Table 1). Patients with delirium had higher NIHSS and were more likely to receive tPA. Patients with delirium were more likely to have MCA territory strokes, strokes involving the insula, and to have infarct sizes ≥10 cc. On multivariate modeling, NIHSS (OR 1.07; 95% CI 1.01, 1.13), MCA territory stroke (OR 2.62; 95% CI 1.09, 6.30), and infarct size ≥10 cc (OR 3.23; 95% CI 1.46, 6.90) were associated with delirium. Conclusions : In a cohort of AIS patients without significant expected mortality on admission, the incidence of delirium is high. On evaluation, infarct size ≥10 cc and in the MCA territory were more associated with delirium than NIHSS. These imaging characteristics should be considered in any future predictive models for identifying patients at risk for delirium.

EP.FRI.175 Outcomes from the introduction of routine Geriatrician review for General Surgical patients over 65 years old undergoing Emergency Laparotomy at a large District General Hospital

Aims The National Emergency Laparotomy Audit (NELA) results show that only 28.8% of all patients over 65years having emergency laparotomy had Geriatrician input. Advancing age predisposes to more complex medical needs due to a higher prevalence of co-morbidities, polypharmacy, cognitive impairment, and physiological frailty. Introduction of perioperative geriatrician input has been demonstrated to significantly reduce post-operatively mortality (national average 9.5%, rising to 20-40% in older age). We introduced a Geriatrician led liaison team with the initial aim to reduce 30-day mortality in older patients undergoing emergency laparotomy. Methods Prospective database was maintained of all eligible patients reviewed by the new service. Data on Rockwood Clinical Frailty Score (CFS), NELA risk prediction score, length of stay, mortality and complications were analysed. In this service development pilot we specifically assessed age and frailty demographics, expected mortality, and actual mortality in the cohort. Results All NELA patients 65 and over were reviewed by the service between September and December 2020, 35 in total. Median age 77 years; Median CFS 3 (range 2-6); Median NELA mortality risk 12% (range 0.9%-55.8%). Inpatient mortality was 2.9% and 30-day mortality 2.9% during this study period, compared to 18% in the previous year. Conclusion Our pilot study demonstrates that development of an embedded Geriatrician liaison service for patients undergoing emergency laparotomy is achievable in a district general hospital. Consistent with other larger scale studies we demonstrated significant mortality reduction in older adults undergoing emergency laparotomy with the new service offering enhanced inter-disciplinary Surgical, Critical Care and Geriatrician team-working.

NELA.03Laparoscopy in Emergency Surgery is Associated with Lower Risk-Adjusted Mortality

Aims To compare risk-adjusted outcomes after emergency intestinal surgery by operative approach. Methods Data from December 2013-November 2018 was retrieved from the NELA national database. Complete data on 102,154 patients with P-POSSUM was available, and 47,667 had NELA score. AUROC curves were calculated to assess model discrimination (c-statistic), and calibration plots to visualise agreement between predicted and observed mortality. Standardised Mortality Ratio's (SMR) were calculated for the total cohort and by operative approach. Operative approach was divided into: laparotomy, completed laparoscopically, converted to open and lap assisted. Results Both P-POSSUM and NELA score displayed good discrimination for total cohort and by operative approach (P-POSSUM c-statistic=0.801-0.815; NELA score c-statistic=0.851-0.880). Calibration plots demonstrated that P-POSSUM was highly accurate up to 20% mortality, after which it substantially over-predicted mortality. NELA score was highly accurate up to 25% mortality after which it slightly under-predicted. Overall SMR of observed vs expected deaths was 0.77 using P-POSSUM, 0.8 for laparotomy and 0.46 for laparoscopy. Restricting cases to < 10% predicted mortality (n = 65,000), overall SMR improved (0.9) and was considerably lower for cases completed laparoscopically (0.41) compared to open (0.97). Using NELA scores of < 10% predicted mortality (n = 27,000) had similar overall SMR (0.96), with cases completed laparoscopically displaying much lower SMR (0.61) compared to laparotomy (1.0). Conclusions SMR's calculated using P-POSSUM and NELA score have demonstrated that laparoscopy has significantly lower observed vs expected mortality rate compared to laparotomy. This raises the question of why laparoscopy is associated with reduced mortality and should operative approach be included in risk models?