Agriculture Land Use Change and Demographic Change in Response to Decline Suspended Sediment in Južna Morava River Basin (Serbia)

This study expounds the dynamic relationships among agricultural land-use change, rural population migration, and sediment transport. The variability of suspended sediment load was detected by Mann–Kendall and Pettitt tests. From 1961 to 2007, the annual trend in suspended sediment concentration and sediment load demonstrated significant reduction (α = 0.001), with decreasing rates of 0.0144 g/L/y and 84.7 t/y, respectively. An abrupt change-point was detected in 1984 for the sediment load (p = 0.0001). The double-mass curve method and regression analysis of sediment load versus precipitation were used to quantify the effects of climate change and human activities on sediment load variations. The changes in sediment load were predominantly impacted by human activities (89%), while precipitation explained 11% of the reduction in suspended sediment. An important land-use change recorded in the Južna Morava river basin comprised the abandonment of agricultural lands due to depopulation processes, as well as economic and social changes, which was followed by significant impacts on soil erosion and sediment transport. Land abandonment was most pronounced in marginal mountain or semi-mountainous areas, where agriculture was until recent decades traditional or semi-traditional. The results of the correlation matrix were significant at the p < 0.05 level, demonstrating that the decrease of rural population, agricultural land, and arable land were directly related to the decline of suspended sediment. High correlation coefficients were found between anthropogenic indicators and sediment parameters, ranging from 0.94 to 0.97.

The hydrological and environmental aspect of low flow assessment in ungauged basins - a case study in the Juzna Morava river basin

Eighteen low flow indicators are considered in the research of sixteen hydrological stations in the Juzna Morava river basin. The indicators are estimated by statistical analysis and grouped as hydrological and environmental indicators. A crosscorrelation between all indicators is assessed. Environmental flows at hydrologic stations are obtained by the GEP method. The environmental low flow indicators are transferred to two small ungauged basins by regression with physiographic characteristics. The adjustment of environmental flows at ungauged basins is performed according to locations of the donor stations in the hydrogeological regions of the studied area.

Current state and perspective of water management policy in terms of climate change

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to set out the policy guidelines and recommendations to harmonise the Serbian water legislation with European Union standards in the area of water system management as impacted by climate change. Design/methodology/approach The EU Water Framework Directive is analysed in the context of implementation of the integrated water management policy presented in the Serbian Water Law (2010), as well as the National Water Management Strategy (2016). It has been found that the water management legislation that deals with the impact of climate change on water resources is incomplete. Although there are numerous challenges related to research of climate change and water systems, water policy and legal aspects cannot be neglected. The so-called soft law instruments represented in a form of strategy documents could be a valuable response in terms of an adaptive and integrated water policy approach. Findings The research is applied to a case study of the Velika Morava River Basin, at Ljubicevski Most hydrological station. Long-term projections suggest a decrease in annual precipitation levels and annual flows up to the year 2100 for climatic scenarios A1B and A2, accompanied by a rapid increase in air temperatures. Originality/value This study proposes a water management policy and provides recommendations for the Velika Morava River Basin as impacted by climate change, according to the European Union legislation.