Eye Movements Predict Large-Scale Voting Decisions

More than 100 countries allow people to vote directly on policies in direct democracy elections (e.g., 2016 Brexit referendum). Politicians are often responsible for writing ballot language, and voters frequently encounter ballot measures that are difficult to understand. We examined whether eye movements from a small group of individuals can predict the consequences of ballot language on large-scale voting decisions. Across two preregistered studies (Study 1: N = 120 registered voters, Study 2: N = 120 registered voters), we monitored laboratory participants’ eye movements as they read real ballot measures. We found that eye-movement responses associated with difficulties in language comprehension predicted aggregate voting decisions to abstain from voting and vote against ballot measures in U.S. elections (total number of votes cast = 137,661,232). Eye movements predicted voting decisions beyond what was accounted for by widely used measures of language difficulty. This finding demonstrates a new way of linking eye movements to out-of-sample aggregate-level behaviors.

Close to Home: Place-Based Mobilization in Racialized Contexts

How do racially concentrated policy changes translate to political action? Using official election returns, the Cooperative Congressional Election Study, and original data on the unprecedented mass closure of schools in segregated, predominantly Black neighborhoods across Chicago, we demonstrate that those living in the communities affected (1) increase their attendance at political meetings; (2) mobilize in support of ballot measures to avert future closings; and (3) increase their participation in the subsequent local election, while decreasing their support for the political official responsible for the policy on the ballot—at a higher rate than every other group. These findings shed light on how groups that previously participated at the lowest rates go on to participate at the highest rates on community issues that matter to them. We develop a theory of place-based mobilization to explain the role of “the community” in acting as a site of coidentification and political action for marginalized groups.

Do Equity and Accountability Get Lost in LOSTs? An Analysis of Local Return Funding Provisions in California’s Local Option Sales Tax Measures for Transportation

This study explores how local return provisions of local option sales taxes (LOSTs) for transportation are allocated and spent to meet local and regional transportation needs. Local return refers to the component of county LOST measures that provides funding directly to municipalities in the county to be used to meet local needs. Local return has become a fixture in LOSTs; 58 LOST measures placed on the ballot in California (as of 2019) that have included local return in their expenditure plan have an average of 35% of revenues dedicated to local return. Local return provisions in the ballot measures often contain guidelines on how a portion of the money should be spent. The allocation of local return funds to localities has rarely been discussed in research, and spending decisions have to our knowledge never been analyzed. This paper conducts a mixed-methods analysis of all LOSTs with local return, relying on ordinances and other public documents related to local return expenditures, and supplemented with interviews with officials in six counties. Findings indicate that local return provisions are crafted to balance the needs of the county across different dimensions, including trying to achieve equity between urban and rural residents, investment in different transportation modes, and meeting both local and regional policy needs. Moreover, significant accountability mechanisms provide regulations to ensure that funds are distributed to and spent by jurisdictions as promised by the measures. Overall, this research finds that local return is a vital part of LOST measures in California, allowing cities to meet local needs ranging from maintenance of local streets to funding for special programs, while simultaneously aligning local investment with regional priorities.

Centuries of Ballot-Box Transportation Planning in Los Angeles

Since 1980, many have marveled at Los Angeles’“innovation” of funding transportation through ballot measures that are raising billions for transportation improvements. In fact, historically much transportation infrastructure in Los Angeles was financed by local voter-approved revenues. It began in 1868 with a narrowly approved $225,000 bond measure to build the region’s first railroad, followed by an 1876 measure to grant the Southern Pacific railroad a $602,000 subsidy to entice the company to route its transcontinental line through the region. Angeleno voted on an additional 23 different transportation-related ballot measures between the passage of the Good Roads Act (1908) and the end of the New Deal (1937)—a key period of Los Angeles’ history that saw dramatic population increase and with it political contention over the direction of the region’s growth. Overall, these early transportation measures fared well with voters. Of the 25 transportation-related ballot measures in Los Angeles County from 1860 to 1960, only seven (28%) failed to pass, a far better record than nontransportation measures of which 21 of 31 (71%) went down to defeat. Regardless of whether, as some contend, Los Angeles missed a golden opportunity to create the backbone of an effective transit system that would have reduced the need for automobiles and spending many billions on freeways, it is clear that local voters have long faced competing visions for the future of Los Angeles and arguments over whether to fund transportation systems to serve these visions.

Publication of Legal Advertising.

This chapter looks at former Article XXIII of the Colorado Constitution, which was repealed in 1994. It had concerned publication of legal advertising related to ballot measures. The article was added in 1918 to require that proposed constitutional amendments and initiated and referred bills “be published in two issues of two newspapers of opposite political faith in each county in the state.” As those terms indicate, the article was modeled on the tradition of newspapers identified with political parties and the existence of an abundance of local papers. As those customs disappeared, the article needed revision. Instead, the 1994 amendment repealed the article and transferred its function to new Article V, Section 1(7.3), which requires the general assembly’s research staff to publish proposed ballot measures in legal newspapers.

Campaign and Political Finance

This chapter studies Article XXVIII of the Colorado Constitution, which deals with campaign and political finance. A 1996 initiative had adopted similar rules as a state statute. It was gutted by the general assembly, and Article XXVIII was adopted in reaction. The article sets contribution and spending limits on campaigns for public office and for ballot measures. It also requires disclosure of persons who make defined political expenditures and who contribute to those who make them. Groups active in politics are required to register with the state and file reports. Although no constitutional text addresses the issue, the article is interpreted to exempt home rule local governments that have adopted laws that “address the matters covered” by the article.