Unraveling the time-dependent relevance of input model uncertainties for a lumped hydrologic model of a pre-alpine karst system

Uncertainties in hydrologic model outputs can arise for many reasons such as structural, parametric and input uncertainty. Identification of the sources of uncertainties and the quantification of their impacts on model results are important to appropriately reproduce hydrodynamic processes in karst aquifers and to support decision-making. The present study investigates the time-dependent relevance of model input uncertainties, defined as the conceptual uncertainties affecting the representation and parameterization of processes relevant for groundwater recharge, i.e. interception, evapotranspiration and snow dynamic, on the lumped karst model LuKARS. A total of nine different models are applied, three to compute interception (DVWK, Gash and Liu), three to compute evapotranspiration (Thornthwaite, Hamon and Oudin) and three to compute snow processes (Martinec, Girons Lopez and Magnusson). All the input model combinations are tested for the case study of the Kerschbaum spring in Austria. The model parameters are kept constant for all combinations. While parametric uncertainties computed for the same model in previous studies do not show pronounced temporal variations, the results of the present work show that input uncertainties are seasonally varying. Moreover, the input uncertainties of evapotranspiration and snowmelt are higher than the interception uncertainties. The results show that the importance of a specific process for groundwater recharge can be estimated from the respective input uncertainties. These findings have practical implications as they can guide researchers to obtain relevant field data to improve the representation of different processes in lumped parameter models and to support model calibration.

The Origin of Modern Atolls: Challenging Darwin's Deeply Ingrained Theory

In 1842, Darwin identified three types of reefs: fringing reefs, which are directly attached to volcanic islands; barrier reefs, which are separated from volcanic islands by lagoons; and ring reefs, which enclose only a lagoon and are defined as atolls. Moreover, he linked these reef types through an evolutionary model in which an atoll is the logical end point of a subsiding volcanic edifice, as he was unaware of Quaternary glaciations. As an alternative, starting in the 1930s, several authors proposed the antecedent karst model; in this model, atolls formed as a direct interaction between subsidence and karst dissolution that occurred preferentially in the bank interiors rather than on their margins through exposure during glacial lowstands of sea level. Atolls then developed during deglacial reflooding of the glacial karstic morphologies by preferential stacked coral-reef growth along their margins. Here, a comprehensive new model is proposed, based on the antecedent karst model and well-established sea-level fluctuations during the last 5 million years, by demonstrating that most modern atolls from the Maldives Archipelago and from the tropical Pacific and southwest Indian Oceans are rooted on top of late Pliocene flat-topped banks. The volcanic basement, therefore, has had no influence on the late Quaternary development of these flat-topped banks into modern atolls. During the multiple glacial sea-level lowstands that intensified throughout the Quaternary, the tops of these banks were karstified; then, during each of the five mid-to-late Brunhes deglaciations, coral reoccupied their raised margins and grew vertically, keeping up with sea-level rise and creating the modern atolls.

Modeling spatial and temporal hydrologic variability of karst vulnerability at a large Slovenian karst aquifer

<p>About 50% of the Slovene drinking water demand are covered by karst aquifers. Consequently, appropriate protection and sustainable management of these aquifers are essential. Due to the hydrologic complexity and variability of karst systems, predicting potential contaminations and aquifers’ responses to changes in climate conditions, remains a challenge for karst research. In this study, the dynamics of potential solute contaminant transport in the Unica springs catchment, located in the southwest of Slovenia, are characterized and simulated with a semi-distributed karst model. The catchment encompasses autogenic and allogenic recharge across an area of about 820 km². The autogenic karst massive hosts one of Europe’s largest confluences of subterranean river branches and is strongly karstified. To take into account the temporal and spatial characteristics of the catchment, the model is linked with a GIS-based approach to assess spatiotemporal karst vulnerability. The validation of the model is performed by discharge observations and tracer experiments. The resulting simulations enable us to identify hot spots and hot moments of high contamination risks. By simulating solute contaminant transport during extremely dry and extremely wet years, we show that contaminant transport slows down under dry conditions. This can be explained by fast flow pathways not being activated or hydraulically connected under low flow conditions, which results in a retention and dilution of the contaminant in the aquifer. Our new approach improves the understanding of potential contaminants' transport behavior in a large complex karst system and justifies the consideration of spatiotemporal hydrologic variability in solute transport forecasting. It proposes a good basis for a better evaluation, management and protection of water resources in karst areas.</p>

Eogenetic Karst Control of Carbonate Reservoirs during a Transient Exposure: A Case Study of the Ordovician Yingshan Formation in the Northern Slope of the Tazhong Uplift, Tarim Basin, China

The Tazhong area of the Tarim Basin contains abundant oil and gas resources in Ordovician carbonate rocks, especially in the karst pores and caves of the Yingshan Formation. Research has indicated that the Yingshan Formation underwent a 7–11 Ma exposure during the middle Caledonian Period, resulting in large-scale karst pores and caves. However, the continental freshwater karst model cannot adequately explain the origin and distribution of karst pores and caves. In order to develop a more accurate karst model to guide petroleum exploration in the region, we analyzed the karst morphology, cave development statistics, and paleokarst environments. Karst reservoir characteristics were analyzed on the basis of the following analysis: (1) Karst morphological analyses based on core description and formation micro-imager (FMI) log analyses. The results showed that alveolar-like and Swiss cheese-like solution pores, spongy dissolution zones, pit cenotes, and small continuous karst caves developed in the Yingshan Formation. (2) The statistical analysis of pore and cave characteristics indicated that most of the karst pores and caves developed within 50 m below the unconformity where the average height of these features ranged from 0.1 to 3.0 m and their widths ranged up to 100 m. These pores and caves were commonly filled with gravel, clay, and calcite. Horizontal well and seismic attribute analysis indicated that these pores and caves were distributed over a large area. In plain view, the karst pore-cave system is comprised of cross-linked anastomosing networks of horizontal cave passages. And (3) Cathode luminescence and electron microprobe analyses suggested that clay filling within karst caves was freshwater related, while calcite filling was of seawater origin. Cements within solution pores showed three phases of luminescence, suggesting an alternating freshwater and seawater environment. Based on these characteristics, the karsts of the Yingshan Formation in the Tazhong area are interpreted to be similar to the eogenetic karsts in the Yucatan Peninsula of modern Mexico. Accordingly, this study indicates that the pore-caves of the Yingshan Formation can be subdivided into three sections. Further, the development and filling of these pore-cave sections are interpreted to have formed by eogenetic mixed-water karstification during three phases of relatively stable sea level in a coastal margin environment.

The Influence of Soil Organic Matter Age Spectrum on the Reconstruction of Atmospheric 14C Levels Via Stalagmites

The imprint of the radiocarbon bomb peak was detected in the top of stalagmite ER-77 from Grotta di Ernesto (NE Italy). This recently grown stalagmite reveals a reservoir age, also known as dead carbon fraction (dcf), of ≃1050 14C yr, or 12%. By applying a 14C soil-karst model, the age spectrum of soil organic matter (SOM) as well as the CO2 contribution of the single SOM reservoirs to the total soil CO2 can be derived. Under the assumption of constant vegetation, meaning both vegetation density and the age spectrum of SOM, it is possible to derive the soil-air 14C activity of the past using the 14C calibration curve (IntCal04). Hence, it is also possible to calculate an artificial stalagmite 14C data set covering the last 25,000 yr with parameters determined for stalagmite ER-77. With this artificially constructed data set, we derived the hypothetical atmospheric 14C activity by using the common method of applying a constant dcf on the modeled 14C data set of the stalagmite. This theoretical approach allows to analyze the impact of a constant and variable SOM age spectrum on atmospheric 14C reconstructions performed with real stalagmite 14C measurements. We observe deviations between IntCal04 and the atmospheric 14C activity as derived with our modeled 14C data set, which are larger for older SOM than for younger SOM and vary in time up to 2 pMC, depending on the strength of the variations in the atmospheric 14C level. This value is comparable with the 1-σ uncertainty given by IntCal04 for the last glacial. For a varying SOM age spectrum, the deviations between the calibration curve and 14C level of the atmosphere reconstructed with a stalagmite exceed 3 pMC, which is larger than the 1-σ uncertainty of IntCal04. In general, the SOM has smoothing, shifting, and 14C-depleting effects on the stalagmite 14C record and, therefore, on the stalagmite-derived atmospheric 14C activity. In this study, changes in soil-air pCO2 and carbonate dissolution conditions, which have also an important impact on the 14C record of a stalagmite, are not accounted for.