A Bayesian Perspective on Severity: Risky Predictions and Specific Hypotheses

A tradition that goes back to Karl R. Popper assesses the value of a statistical test primarily by its severity: was it a honest and stringent attempt to prove the theory wrong? For "error statisticians" such as Deborah Mayo (1996, 2018), and frequentists more generally, severity is a key virtue in hypothesis tests. Conversely, failure to incorporate severity into statistical inference, as it allegedly happens in Bayesian inference, counts as a major methodological shortcoming. Our paper pursues a double goal: First, we argue that the error-statistical explication of severity has substantive drawbacks (i.e., neglect of research context; lack of connection to specificity of predictions; problematic similarity of degrees of severity to one-sided p-values). Second, we argue that severity matters for Bayesian inference via the value of specific, risky predictions: severity boosts the expected evidential value of a Bayesian hypothesis test. We illustrate severity-based reasoning in Bayesian statistics by means of a practical example and discuss its advantages and potential drawbacks.

Minimal disturbance: in defence of pragmatic reasons of the right kind

This paper draws attention to an important methodological shortcoming in debates about what counts as a reason for belief. An extremely influential distinction in this literature is between reasons of the ‘right kind’ and the ‘wrong kind’. However, as I will demonstrate, arguments making use of this distinction often rely on a specific (and not explicitly stated) conception of epistemic rationality. Shifting focus to a reasonable alternative, namely a coherentist conception, can lead to surprising consequences—in particular, pragmatic reasons can, against orthodoxy, indeed be reasons of the right kind for belief.

Homelike Thermoregulation: How Physical Coldness Makes an Advertised House a Home

House brokers typically intuit that any type of warmth cause people to buy houses more frequently. Is this empirical reality? The authors investigated this through people’s attachment towards advertised houses. A wealth of research has now linked thermoregulation to relationships (cf. IJzerman et al., 2015), and here the authors purport that this extends to people’s relationships with house as a more novel solution to an ancient problem: Shielding from the cold. The present package tests a preregistered idea that colder temperatures increase people’s need to affiliate and, in turn, increase people’s estimations of how homely a house is (measured through communality). The hypotheses of the first two studies were partly right: The authors only found that actual lower temperatures (not motivation and through a cup and outside temperature) induced people to find a house more communal, predicted by their need to affiliate. Importantly, this even predicts whether people find the house more attractive, and increases their willingness to pay for the house (Studies 1 and Study 2). The third study did not pan out as predicted, but still affected people’s need to affiliate. The authors reason that this was caused by a methodological shortcoming (namely not directly being affected by temperature). The present work provides novel insights into how a house becomes a home.This paper was published in Journal of Experimental Social Psychology: Van Acker, B. B., Kerselaers, K., Pantophlet, J., & IJzerman, H. (2016). Homelike thermoregulation: How physical coldness makes an advertised house a home. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 67, 20-27.

Influence of a mandatory IFRS adoption on accounting practice

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to evaluate the changes of accounting policy choices and the harmonisation of accounting practices for two important financial reporting items within and between three IFRS adopting countries. Furthermore, it aims to address methodological shortcomings in the prior harmonisation literature through the introduction of two newly developed significance assessment methodologies.Design/methodology/approachThe influence of the mandatory IFRS adoption in Australia (AUS), Hong Kong (HK) and the UK on deferred taxation (DT) and goodwill (GW) accounting practices as well as the within and between country harmonisation of accounting practices is investigated through an event type study. These investigations are conducted using a McNemar test with Bowker extension as well as the Split C‐Index with a newly developed bootstrapping significance testing methodology.FindingsThis study demonstrates that the mandatory IFRS adoption in the analysed countries is linked to a significant harmonisation of DT and GW accounting practices between AUS, HK and the UK. Furthermore, the increase of adequate accounting policy information in the financial reporting documents of UK firms over the period of this study is identified as an important harmonisation accelerator.Originality/valueThis study adds to the prior literature due to its focus on the mandatory IFRS adoption within the analysed countries. Furthermore, the introduction of two newly developed methodologies to evaluate the significance of accounting policy choice changes and harmonisation over time addresses an important methodological shortcoming in the prior literature.

Neuropsychological outcomes after coronary artery bypass grafting

Short- and long-term cognitive declines after cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass have been reported, but the frequency, severity, nature, and etiology of postoperative cognitive changes have been difficult to quantify. Current studies have corrected the principal methodological shortcoming of earlier studies by including control groups, and have shown that while early postoperative cognitive decline does occur in some patients, it is generally mild and reversible by 3 months after surgery. Late cognitive changes do occur, but comparison with patients undergoing off-pump surgery or those being treated medically suggests that these changes are not specific to CABG or more specifically to the use of cardiopulmonary bypass. (JINS, 2010, 16, 221–226.)

Original Sin as the Evil Inclination–A Polemicist's Appreciation of Human Nature

Studies on the essence and development of the concept of original sin abound. Not only has this fundamental tenet of Christian theology played an important role in the history of Western religious thought, but it continues to command the attention of scholars and theologians even today. Given this great interest, one is occasionally surprised at the narrowness of the historical and religious framework to which many have confined their discussions of original sin. All too often, scholars have overlooked the significance which events within the community they are examining or parallel developments in other religious communities might have for explicating a new direction in the history of this doctrine. While the present study can hope neither to reformulate the findings of the voluminous literature on original sin nor to compensate in large measure for this methodological shortcoming at times inherent in it, it will attempt to demonstrate by example how the notion of original sin did not evolve in a historical vacuum. It both drew from and contributed to prevalent philosophical and political theory, and it even interacted significantly with non-Christian religious concepts.