Movers and Stayers

Democrats once dominated the “Solid South.” By the turn of the 21st century, Republicans had taken control. We are in the midst of the dawning of new, more progressive era. Theories explaining Republican growth provide little guidance, but a new perspective—Movers and Stayers theory—explains this recent growth in Democratic support and the ways in which population growth has produced it. Migratory patterns play a significant role in southern politics. Young, well-educated in-migrants fostered Republican growth in the last century. Today, these increasingly progressive young, well-educated movers are growing the Democratic Party. Movers bring their politics to their new communities. Their progressivism fosters the same among long-term residents (stayers) in their new communities. But the declining communities they left show the effects of their exit. In our racialized partisan environment, white stayers respond to the threat of declining communities by shifting to the right and identifying with the Republican Party. Conversely, African Americans respond to community threat by maintaining their progressivism. Few Latinos live in declining communities; Latino stayers in fast growing communities become more Democratic. While movers of retirement age are more conservative than younger movers, they are more liberal than those who retire in place—not quite the demographic windfall Republicans in aging areas have hoped for. These dynamics are altering the southern political landscape, and differences between growing areas and declining areas are accelerating. Absent a wholesale reinvention of southern politics along the lines of class or (possibly) age, the current partisan trajectory does not bode well for Republicans. The COVID-19 pandemic will not change that.

Migrant Magnets: How Movers Change the Politics of Their New Homes and the Places They Leave: The Cases of People of Blacks and Latinos

Just as at predicts movers influence the partisan attachments and ideological orientations of white stayers, movers and stayers theory leads us to expect stayers of color to respond to movers and the broader population growth (and decline) their migratory patterns produce. However, the effects on people of color are likely to be subtler than the effects among white stayers. Likewise, people of color are likely to respond differently to community decline than whites because their baseline attachments to the Democratic Party are much stronger. African American stayers in declining communities maintain their attachment to the Democratic Party rather than shifting toward the Democratic Party rather than the Republican Party. In high-growth areas, African American stayers also become more ideologically progressive. While results for Latinos are more muted, the strikingly large proportion of Latino stayers in high-growth communities—and high-growth states—suggests they will be an increasingly important facet of 21st-century southern politics.

Movers, Stayers, and the End of Southern Politics?

Southern politics is changing. Movers are altering the partisan and ideological landscapes of their new homes, where population growth spurs support for Democrats and greater progressivism. Stayers in communities vacated by these movers—often looking for better jobs and brighter economic futures—are changing as well. In many cases, these (largely white) communities are shifting in the conservative direction and are increasingly likely to vote Republican. As these dynamics alter the southern political landscape, the differences between high-growth areas and low-growth areas are only accelerating. Still the defining feature of southern politics, race relations are more complicated as the prominence of Latinos grows. Absent a wholesale reinvention of southern politics along the lines of class or (possibly) age, the current partisan trajectory does not bode well for Republicans. The COVID-19 pandemic will not change that.

Players in the Migration Game

Migratory patterns have long played a significant role in southern politics. Scholars often cite the in-migration of young, well-educated Republicans in the last half of the 20th century as a key factor in the growth of southern Republicanism. Today, movers—those who have changed cities of residence in the last few years—still tend to be young and relatively well educated, but now they are significantly more likely to be progressive and much more likely to identify as Democrats than non-movers. Their migration has a direct impact on the places they are moving to (those locales that are growing) and the places they are leaving (those that tend to be declining). The growing places are becoming more progressive because these progressive movers have arrived. In those southern areas that movers are vacating, conservatism and Republican support (at least among whites) is growing.

Migrant Magnets: How Movers Change the Politics of Their New Homes and the Places They Leave: The Case of Whites

Southern movers have both a direct and an indirect impact on the growth of Democratic attachment and support and the increase in geographic polarization within the region. Relatively young, well educated, and progressive, they have a straightforward direct political impact on the places to which they are moving and the places they have left. However, movers also influence the partisan and political orientations of their new neighbors and the neighbors they left behind. Based on “contact hypothesis” dynamics associated with their increased interaction with these progressive newcomers, long-term white residents (stayers) in high-growth areas become more progressive. Conversely, whites in the areas vacated by the young movers respond to the threat facing their declining communities with greater conservatism and an increased attachment to the Republican Party. These migratory effects—both direct and indirect (at least among whites)—undergird the political sea change occurring in present-day southern politics.