Migrant Magnets: How Movers Change the Politics of Their New Homes and the Places They Leave: The Cases of People of Blacks and Latinos

Just as at predicts movers influence the partisan attachments and ideological orientations of white stayers, movers and stayers theory leads us to expect stayers of color to respond to movers and the broader population growth (and decline) their migratory patterns produce. However, the effects on people of color are likely to be subtler than the effects among white stayers. Likewise, people of color are likely to respond differently to community decline than whites because their baseline attachments to the Democratic Party are much stronger. African American stayers in declining communities maintain their attachment to the Democratic Party rather than shifting toward the Democratic Party rather than the Republican Party. In high-growth areas, African American stayers also become more ideologically progressive. While results for Latinos are more muted, the strikingly large proportion of Latino stayers in high-growth communities—and high-growth states—suggests they will be an increasingly important facet of 21st-century southern politics.

The Special Case of Retirees

Retirees are a distinctive group within the set of southern movers. Significantly, they tend to be older and more conservative than other movers. Mobile retirees tend to congregate in certain areas, and so they may dampen the progressive effects normally associated with population growth. Data presented in Chapter 7 demonstrates that movers of retirement age are distinctive; they are more likely identify as Democrats, and they are more liberal than retirees who age in place. Given the partisan and political leanings of mobile retirees, it is unlikely that they have a significant dampening effect on the liberalizing impact of population growth more generally.

Movers, Stayers, and the End of Southern Politics?

Southern politics is changing. Movers are altering the partisan and ideological landscapes of their new homes, where population growth spurs support for Democrats and greater progressivism. Stayers in communities vacated by these movers—often looking for better jobs and brighter economic futures—are changing as well. In many cases, these (largely white) communities are shifting in the conservative direction and are increasingly likely to vote Republican. As these dynamics alter the southern political landscape, the differences between high-growth areas and low-growth areas are only accelerating. Still the defining feature of southern politics, race relations are more complicated as the prominence of Latinos grows. Absent a wholesale reinvention of southern politics along the lines of class or (possibly) age, the current partisan trajectory does not bode well for Republicans. The COVID-19 pandemic will not change that.

Players in the Migration Game

Migratory patterns have long played a significant role in southern politics. Scholars often cite the in-migration of young, well-educated Republicans in the last half of the 20th century as a key factor in the growth of southern Republicanism. Today, movers—those who have changed cities of residence in the last few years—still tend to be young and relatively well educated, but now they are significantly more likely to be progressive and much more likely to identify as Democrats than non-movers. Their migration has a direct impact on the places they are moving to (those locales that are growing) and the places they are leaving (those that tend to be declining). The growing places are becoming more progressive because these progressive movers have arrived. In those southern areas that movers are vacating, conservatism and Republican support (at least among whites) is growing.

Migrant Magnets: How Movers Change the Politics of Their New Homes and the Places They Leave: The Case of Whites

Southern movers have both a direct and an indirect impact on the growth of Democratic attachment and support and the increase in geographic polarization within the region. Relatively young, well educated, and progressive, they have a straightforward direct political impact on the places to which they are moving and the places they have left. However, movers also influence the partisan and political orientations of their new neighbors and the neighbors they left behind. Based on “contact hypothesis” dynamics associated with their increased interaction with these progressive newcomers, long-term white residents (stayers) in high-growth areas become more progressive. Conversely, whites in the areas vacated by the young movers respond to the threat facing their declining communities with greater conservatism and an increased attachment to the Republican Party. These migratory effects—both direct and indirect (at least among whites)—undergird the political sea change occurring in present-day southern politics.

Population Growth and Partisan Change in the South

The migratory mechanism at the heart of movers and stayers theory is at the local level, but the aggregation of these localized effects generate state-level dynamics as well. Over the past 20 years, the southern states have increasingly diverged into those with high population growth and those with low population growth. As movers and stayers theory predicts, these differences in population growth produce political differences. There is a substantively and statistically significant relationship between faster population growth and increased support for Democratic presidential candidates. Diverging population trajectories have also eroded the traditional political distinctions between the Rim South and the Deep South. Today, the primary sub-regional distinction is between the high-growth states and the low-growth states. Evidence from the partisan split in U.S. House delegations and both the lower and upper houses of the southern state legislatures clearly illustrates the significance of this new population-based sub-regional distinction.

Migration and Partisan Change

As Democratic Party attachment and support for Democratic candidates has begun to grow in the South, existing theories designed to explain Republican growth—whether based on race relations, economic growth, or cultural conservatism—fare poorly. The author advances a new theory—Movers and Stayers theory—to explain this recent growth in Democratic support. This chapter includes a broad outline of the theory—one focused on population growth’s role in the expansion of Democratic support—and an explanation of the dynamics that boost progressivism in high-growth areas and inhibit its development in declining communities. The theory highlights the role of the distinctive progressivism of movers on the political attitudes of stayers in their new homes, and stayers in the communities they have left. The theory explains why community decline results in different political responses from whites and people of color, and it highlights the waning significance of Key’s “black belt” hypothesis.

The Shifting South

Generations ago, “Solid South” stood for the Democratic dominance of southern politics. By the turn of the 21st century, Republicans had taken hold of the South. Today, we are seeing the beginning of another regional political transformation, this time in the progressive direction. As population growth occurs, it has a direct impact on the growth of attachment to the Democratic Party and its candidates. The demographic and political identities of movers—whether they come from outside the South or not—are propelling this political sea change. The migratory patterns of movers that determine local and state population growth are changing the South. When movers flock to an area, they alter the politics of long-term residents, stayers. Movers also alter the politics of the places they leave. This growth is changing state-level politics as well as local politics. Movers and Stayers explains why this is happening and what it means for southern politics.