Social Pacts over Time

The chapter uses statistical methods to test observable implications of the book’s arguroent that are visible in spending patterns over time. Establishing an important crowding-out effect between military and social spending in the Middle East, the chapter empirically corroborates a key mechanism of the theory: that is, a trade-off between ‘butter and guns: Itfurther demonstrates that the authoritarian coalitions which emerged from regime formation have had important effects on the way in which (i) regimes cut back social spending in times of economic decline and (ii) distributed resource windfalls, such as oil rents. In so doing, the chapter sheds light on the variation in social spending over time within each welfare regime type.

Welfare Efforts in Comparative Perspective

This chapter provides an analytical overview of welfare provision in labour· abundant MENA regimes. Organized in sections by country and covering the period from regime formation until the late 2000s, the chapter pays particular attention to spending levels and the accessibility of social policies, and maps the eigbt regimes onto the three different pathways of welfare provision outlined in Chapter I. It draws on a combination of historical reports and statistics, available secondary accounts, and a novel dataset on social expenditures developed from archival material of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). It also diversifies the picture by examining policies of education, health, and social protection separately. The chapter lays important groundwork for further analyses and gives a more complete sense of social policy regimes beyond the social spending figures presented in Chapter I.

Welfare States in the Middle East and North Africa: Puzzles and Answers

Chapter 1 sets out the main empirical puzzles of the book, which are (i) the early divergence of welfare trajectories in the region and (ii) their long persistence over time. Drawing on literature from authoritarianism studies and political economy, it lays out the theoretical argument explaining this empirical pattern by developing a novel analytical framework focused on elite incentives at the moment of regime formation and geostrategic constraints limiting their abilities to provide welfare. It also outlines the author’s explanation for the persistence of social policies over time and broadly describes the three types of welfare regime in the region. It sbows the limitations of existing theories in explaining this divergence and bigbligbts the book’s contribution to the literature. The theoretical argument is stated in general terms and sbould thus be of relevance to political economy and authoritarianism scholars more broadly. The chapter ends with an outline of the chapters to come.

Egypt: Between Warfare and Welfare

This chapter retraces the emergence of Egypfs social policy trajectory. A pri­ mary goal is to provide empirical evidence for a link between intra-elite conflict and social policies and spending. The author focuses specifically on the role of the ruler, Nasser, and his impact on early social policies. Highlighting Nasser’s numerous about-faces and ideological ambiguity in the early period of regime formation, he shows that ideology and the ruler’s personality played a minor role in shaping social policies. The chapter emphasizes in particular how external threats made high social spending financially impossible, albeit politically desirable. It demonstrates the specific types of ‘cheap social policies’ the regime utilized to deal with this dilemma. Finally, the chapter sets out to explain the persistence of social spending following divergence. It highlights the key mechanisms of path dependence using the examples of food and energy subsidies and the failed health care reform in the 2000s.

Tunisia

This chapter substantiates the causal mechanism at the micro-level by retracing the emergence and development of social policies in Thnisia. A primary goal of the case studies is to provide empirical evidence for a link between intra-elite conflict and social policies and spending. The author relies on three types of primary source: archival material; autobiographies of key actors; and interviews with former policy makers. A particular focus is the role of the ruler, Bourguiba, and his impact on early social policies. Highlighting Bourguiba’s opposition to important social policy reforms, the chapter backs up the author’s claim that ideology and the ruler’s personality played a secondary role in shaping social policies. The chapter also sets out to explain the persistence of social spending following divergence. It highlights the key mechanisms of path dependence in the Tunisian case, using the examples of food and energy subsidies and the 2004 health care reform.

MENA Welfare States: Explanations and Broader Implications

This chapter draws out the implications of the author’s argument, both at the scholarly and at the policy level. It outlines future comparative research to assess the validity of the author’s theory beyond the MENA region. This concerns in par­ ticular the nexus between war, external threats, and social policies. By proposing the novel concept of ‘cheap’ social policies, the author argues that the book has made a first step towards a more systematic understanding on how war making and preparation shape social policies. Finally, in the light of recent episodes of regime breakdown in Tunisia and Egypt, the author reflects on the ambiguous link between social policies and autocratic survival.

Divergent Paths

The chapter is macro-comparative in nature and examines to what extent the theoretical framework is in line with the historical patterns of authoritarian regime formation. Drawing on historical case accounts, Arabic language secondary liter­ ature, and autobiographical material written by actors involved in the early elite struggles, the chapter spotlights how intra-elite conflict and communal cleavages shaped elites’ incentives for welfare provision. In addition, the chapter maps out the geostrategic environment in which regime formation took place, highlighting differences in the exposure to external threat and the endowment with resources as key constraining factors on welfare distribution. It does so in the form of comparative narratives of coalition formation and the geostrategic context, and demonstrates how the combination of elite competition, communal cleavages, and the geostrategic context widened or narrowed the authoritarian support coalitions.