The West’s Belated Response

Western leaders and institutions did not fully realize that they were under attack from Russia between 2007 and 2012. Yet when they slowly realized that Russia had launched an all-out hybrid war against Western institutions, a determined response emerged. The United States and EU imposed several rounds of economic sanctions on Russia, punishing key individuals and sectors of the economy. The EU also sought to prevent Russia from using energy blackmail against its member states. It took measures to reduce Gazprom’s influence by ending discriminatory contract provisions and building interconnectors between countries. NATO shored up its defenses in Eastern Europe to prevent another Russian invasion. All the while, the EU and NATO continued the project of creating a “Europe whole and free,” including the lands in between, setting the stage for a deepening geopolitical confrontation with Russia.

Introduction

This introductory chapter outlines the core argument of the book: that as Russia ramped up its hybrid war on the West starting around 2007, politics in Western countries has become more similar to politics in the vulnerable “lands in between.” Russia’s hybrid war on the West has contributed to political polarization by promoting extremist parties and creating a sense that every election presents voters with a “civilizational choice” between Russia and the West or authoritarianism and democracy. Paradoxically, many of the leaders that rise to the top in these conditions are those who find ways to profit from both sides. They benefit from the sponsorship of pro-Russia and pro-Western interests to enrich themselves in the process. The plan of this book is simple. It starts with exploring the nature of Russia’s hybrid war on the West and the West’s delayed response. Then it shows how this conflict shapes the politics of the lands in between, Central and Eastern European member states of the European Union, and core Western countries.

The New Politics of Hybrid War

At base, what Russia hopes to achieve with its hybrid war on the West is the destruction or degradation of today’s EU Europe and the creation of a great-power Europe in which Russia would be a key player and US influence would be diminished. For Russia, it means first and foremost that Russia should be allowed a sphere of influence in Europe, undermining the sovereignty of its neighbors. For most Europeans, however, a great-power Europe is a 19th century model that failed. The West has a number of options to counter Russia’s hybrid war on the West in addition to sanctions. Perhaps the most effective would be to disrupt Russia’s ability to launder money through Western countries, thus limiting its ability to finance its foreign interventions. The problem is that the West has yet to take many of these measures because Russian influence campaigns have disabled Western institutions from within.

Core Europe and the United States

Core Europe and North America have often imagined themselves to be invulnerable to the Russian influence campaigns that have affected smaller, weaker countries in the lands in between. However, in recent years, that perception has broken down as Russia regularly hacks democratic elections in the West, sponsors extremists, spreads disinformation, and may have tipped the US 2016 presidential election to Donald Trump. The West now exhibits a similar politics to what we observe in the lands in between—with growing political extremism and polarization on the one hand and the rise of cynical power brokers on the other who seek to profit from both sides of an intensifying divide. Increasingly, democratic elections seem to pose a “civilizational choice” between the forces of liberal democracy and authoritarian nationalism on the Russian model.

The Contest for Central and Eastern Europe

While many thought that the eleven Central and Eastern European countries that exited communism and joined the European Union in the 2000s had made an irrevocable “civilizational choice,” Russia has sought to extend its influence into this unexpected new battleground. Though Russia has fewer tools of influence than in the lands in between, it has used energy politics, disinformation, support for extremist parties, business relations, and a variety of covert methods to cause Central and Eastern European governments and politicians to re-evaluate their allegiances. Central and Eastern European countries have experienced growing extremism, increasing polarization, and the rise of cynical power brokers who wish to accommodate Moscow, while also benefiting from EU ties and funds. Political leaders such as Viktor Orbán of Hungary have blazed this path, making gas and energy deals with Russia while undermining democratic politics at home and challenging the European Union from within.

The Lands In Between

The lands in between Russia and the European Union are caught between their historic vulnerability to Russian military, economic, and cultural influence and their aspirations of prosperity through European integration. As powerful external partners vie for influence in the lands in between, their intensifying conflict has had serious political implications. Every election in the lands in between seems to present voters with a “civilizational choice” between the European Union or the Soviet Union 2.0. Parties and voters tend to line up on one side or the other. Paradoxically, however, the main beneficiaries of this deep polarization have been politicians who refuse to choose sides. Instead, many of the top power brokers in the lands in between, including presidents, prime ministers, and leading oligarchs, have found ways to profit from the patronage of both sides, elevating their own personal fortunes in the process.

Russia’s Hybrid War on the West

Russia’s hybrid war on the West started in 2007, but was only widely recognized in the West after President Putin’s return to the presidency of Russia in 2012, Russia’s invasion of Crimea in 2014, and its meddling in the US presidential election campaign in 2016. For five years, Western leaders failed to recognize or to believe that Russia was engaged in an all-out struggle to undermine Western institutions through funding extremist, anti-EU, and anti-NATO political parties, spreading disinformation and propaganda, hacking and releasing information, and using a wide variety of covert means to influence elections and undermine democratic governance. Since the very existence of this hybrid war has been questioned and politicized, this chapter lays out the basics and addresses the question of what led Russia to launch its hybrid war on the West.