Winter warming and summer monsoon reduction after volcanic eruptions in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) simulations

2016 ◽  
Vol 43 (20) ◽  
pp. 10,920-10,928 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian Zambri ◽  
Alan Robock
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Winter Warming ◽  
Intercomparison Project

scholarly journals Scant evidence for a volcanically forced winter warming over Eurasia following the Krakatau eruption of August 1883

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lorenzo M. Polvani ◽  
Suzana J. Camargo
Keyword(s):  
Coupled Model ◽  
Initial Condition ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Low Latitude ◽  
Winter Warming ◽  
Pinatubo Eruption ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Volcanic Aerosols ◽  
Instrumental Period ◽  
New Evidence

Abstract. A recent study has presented compelling new evidence suggesting that the observed Eurasian warming in the winter following the 1992 Pinatubo eruption was, in all likelihood, unrelated to the presence of volcanic aerosols in the stratosphere. Building on that study, we here turn our attention to the only other low-latitude eruption in the instrumental period with a comparably large Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI): the Krakatau eruption of August 1883. We study in detail the temperature anomalies in the first winter following that eruption, analyzing (1) observations, (2) reanalyses, and (3) models. Three findings emerge from our analysis. First, the observed post-Krakatau winter warming over Eurasia was unremarkable (only between 1- and 2-σ of the distribution from 1850 to present). Second, reanalyses indicate the existence of very large uncertainties, so much so that a Eurasian cooling is not incompatible with observations. Third, models robustly show the complete absence of a volcanically forced Eurasian winter warming: we here analyze both a 100-member initial-condition ensemble, and 140 simulations from the Phase 5 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. This wealth of evidence strongly suggests that, as in the case of Pinatubo, the observed warming over Eurasia in the winter of 1883/84 was, in all likelihood, unrelated to the Krakatau eruption. Together with the results for Pinatubo, we are led to conclude that if volcanically forced Eurasian winter warming exists at all, an eruption with a magnitude far exceeding these two (VEI = 6) events is needed.

Simulation of extreme Indian summer monsoon years in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models: Role of cloud processes

2018 ◽  
Vol 39 (2) ◽  
pp. 901-920 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hemantkumar S. Chaudhari ◽  
Anupam Hazra ◽  
Samir Pokhrel ◽  
Subodh Kumar Saha ◽  
Sai Sruthi Talluri
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Indian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Intercomparison Project

scholarly journals FIO-ESM v2.0 Outputs for the CMIP6 Global Monsoons Model Intercomparison Project Experiments

2020 ◽  
Vol 37 (10) ◽  
pp. 1045-1056 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yajuan Song ◽  
Xinfang Li ◽  
Ying Bao ◽  
Zhenya Song ◽  
Meng Wei ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Monsoon Circulation ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
South Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Global Monsoon ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract Three tiers of experiments in the Global Monsoons Model Intercomparison Project (GMMIP), one of the endorsed model intercomparison projects of phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), are implemented by the First Institute of Oceanography Earth System Model version 2 (FIO-ESM v2.0), following the GMMIP protocols. Evaluation of global mean surface air temperature from 1870 to 2014 and climatological precipitation (1979–2014) in tier-1 shows that the atmosphere model of FIO-ESM v2.0 can reproduce the basic observed atmospheric features. In tier-2, the internal variability is captured by the coupled model, with the SST restoring to the model climatology plus the observed anomalies in the tropical Pacific and North Atlantic. Simulation of the Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon circulation is significantly improved by the SST restoration in the North Atlantic. In tier-3, five orographic perturbation experiments are conducted covering the period 1979–2014 by modifying the surface elevation or vertical heating in the prescribed region. In particular, the strength of the South Asian summer monsoon is reduced by removing the topography or thermal forcing above 500 m over the Asian continent. Monthly and daily simulated outputs of FIO-ESM v2.0 are provided through the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) node to contribute to a better understanding of the global monsoon system.

scholarly journals Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) simulations of climate following volcanic eruptions

2012 ◽  
Vol 117 (D17) ◽  
pp. n/a-n/a ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon Driscoll ◽  
Alessio Bozzo ◽  
Lesley J. Gray ◽  
Alan Robock ◽  
Georgiy Stenchikov
Keyword(s):  
Coupled Model ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Intercomparison Project

scholarly journals Ocean response to volcanic eruptions in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 simulations

2014 ◽  
Vol 119 (9) ◽  
pp. 5622-5637 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yanni Ding ◽  
James A. Carton ◽  
Gennady A. Chepurin ◽  
Georgiy Stenchikov ◽  
Alan Robock ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Coupled Model ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Ocean Response ◽  
Intercomparison Project

scholarly journals Future Changes in Simulated Evapotranspiration across Continental Africa Based on CMIP6 CNRM-CM6

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (13) ◽  
pp. 6760
Author(s):  
Isaac Kwesi Nooni ◽  
Daniel Fiifi T. Hagan ◽  
Guojie Wang ◽  
Waheed Ullah ◽  
Jiao Lu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Events ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Additional Information ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Key Drivers ◽  
Model Ensembles ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Near Future

The main goal of this study was to assess the interannual variations and spatial patterns of projected changes in simulated evapotranspiration (ET) in the 21st century over continental Africa based on the latest Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and the Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) provided by the France Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM-CM) model in the Sixth Phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) framework. The projected spatial and temporal changes were computed for three time slices: 2020–2039 (near future), 2040–2069 (mid-century), and 2080–2099 (end-of-the-century), relative to the baseline period (1995–2014). The results show that the spatial pattern of the projected ET was not uniform and varied across the climate region and under the SSP-RCPs scenarios. Although the trends varied, they were statistically significant for all SSP-RCPs. The SSP5-8.5 and SSP3-7.0 projected higher ET seasonality than SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5. In general, we suggest the need for modelers and forecasters to pay more attention to changes in the simulated ET and their impact on extreme events. The findings provide useful information for water resources managers to develop specific measures to mitigate extreme events in the regions most affected by possible changes in the region’s climate. However, readers are advised to treat the results with caution as they are based on a single GCM model. Further research on multi-model ensembles (as more models’ outputs become available) and possible key drivers may provide additional information on CMIP6 ET projections in the region.

scholarly journals Atmospheric and Surface Contributions to Planetary Albedo

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (16) ◽  
pp. 4402-4418 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aaron Donohoe ◽  
David S. Battisti
Keyword(s):  
Surface Albedo ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Small Contribution ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Radiation Model ◽  
Phase 3 ◽  
Surface Reflection ◽  
Global Average ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Planetary Albedo

Abstract The planetary albedo is partitioned into a component due to atmospheric reflection and a component due to surface reflection by using shortwave fluxes at the surface and top of the atmosphere in conjunction with a simple radiation model. The vast majority of the observed global average planetary albedo (88%) is due to atmospheric reflection. Surface reflection makes a relatively small contribution to planetary albedo because the atmosphere attenuates the surface contribution to planetary albedo by a factor of approximately 3. The global average planetary albedo in the ensemble average of phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) preindustrial simulations is also primarily (87%) due to atmospheric albedo. The intermodel spread in planetary albedo is relatively large and is found to be predominantly a consequence of intermodel differences in atmospheric albedo, with surface processes playing a much smaller role despite significant intermodel differences in surface albedo. The CMIP3 models show a decrease in planetary albedo under a doubling of carbon dioxide—also primarily due to changes in atmospheric reflection (which explains more than 90% of the intermodel spread). All models show a decrease in planetary albedo due to the lowered surface albedo associated with a contraction of the cryosphere in a warmer world, but this effect is small compared to the spread in planetary albedo due to model differences in the change in clouds.

scholarly journals The Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP): Experimental design and forcing input data

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Davide Zanchettin ◽  
Myriam Khodri ◽  
Claudia Timmreck ◽  
Matthew Toohey ◽  
Anja Schmidt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Stratospheric Aerosol ◽  
Aerosol Layer ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Climatic Response ◽  
Volcanic Forcing ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract. The enhancement of the stratospheric aerosol layer by volcanic eruptions induces a complex set of responses causing global and regional climate effects on a broad range of timescales. Uncertainties exist regarding the climatic response to strong volcanic forcing identified in coupled climate simulations that contributed to the fifth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). In order to better understand the sources of these model diversities, the model intercomparison project on the climate response to volcanic forcing (VolMIP) has defined a coordinated set of idealized volcanic perturbation experiments to be carried out in alignment with the CMIP6 protocol. VolMIP provides a common stratospheric aerosol dataset for each experiment to eliminate differences in the applied volcanic forcing, and defines a set of initial conditions to determine how internal climate variability contributes to determining the response. VolMIP will assess to what extent volcanically-forced responses of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system are robustly simulated by state-of-the-art coupled climate models and identify the causes that limit robust simulated behavior, especially differences in the treatment of physical processes. This paper illustrates the design of the idealized volcanic perturbation experiments in the VolMIP protocol and describes the common aerosol forcing input datasets to be used.

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